At the end of March 2025, the global financial market experienced a severe upheaval. On March 28, known as "Black Friday," the U.S. stock market saw the S&P 500 Index drop by 1.97%, the Nasdaq Index plunge by 2.7%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average fall by 715 points, a decline of 1.69%. This downturn quickly spread to the crypto market, with Bitcoin (BTC) falling from $84,000 in the afternoon of March 29 to $81,565 by the morning of March 31. Ethereum (ETH) hit a recent low of $1,767, and Solana (SOL) touched a low of $122.68 at 6 p.m. on March 30.

According to Coinglass data, in the past 48 hours, approximately 70,000 cryptocurrency investors have been liquidated, suffering losses of about $200 million. This cross-market chain reaction not only triggered widespread panic but also exposed the fragility of the current economic environment. This article will combine the views of several authoritative institutions to deeply analyze the reasons for this crash and discuss the key events investors should focus on this week and their potential impacts.

The Crash Timeline: From Black Friday to the Crypto Weekend Chain Reaction

Key Nodes and Data

The stock market crash began on "Black Friday," March 28. According to Investopedia, the S&P 500 Index fell by 112.37 points to 5,580.94, the Nasdaq Index dropped by 481.04 points to 17,322.99, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 715.80 points to 41,583.90. Tech stocks led the decline, with the combined market value of the seven major tech giants (including Apple, Microsoft, and Amazon) evaporating by approximately $505 billion, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index falling by 2.95%. This was the largest single-day drop since the U.S. stock market crash on March 10, marking a violent adjustment at the end of the first quarter of 2025.

The cryptocurrency market followed suit under pressure. Bitcoin fell from $84,000 in the afternoon of March 29 to $81,644 in just eight hours, a drop of over 3%, before rebounding to $83,536 at 6 p.m. on March 30 but failed to hold the gains, falling to $81,565 by 6 a.m. on March 31. Ethereum dropped to $1,767, and Solana to $122.68. According to The Block, the total market value of cryptocurrencies fell from a peak of $3.9 trillion to $2.9 trillion, a drop of 25%, with trading volume plummeting from $126 billion after the November 5 election to $35 billion, a contraction of about 70%.

Market Sentiment and Capital Flows

The synchronized decline of the U.S. stock market and the crypto market reflects the rising risk-averse sentiment among investors towards risky assets. Galaxy Research pointed out that Bitcoin's correlation with tech stocks is evident, with crypto-related stocks such as MicroStrategy (MSTR) plunging by 10% on Friday and Coinbase Global (COIN) falling by over 6%, showing how panic quickly spread. InvestingHaven analyst Taki Tsaklanos believes that Bitcoin's short-term support level is at $77,000, and a breach could trigger a larger-scale liquidation.

Causes of the Crash: A Confluence of Factors Impacting the Market

Macroeconomic Pressures: Surging Inflation and Declining Consumer Confidence

The U.S. Department of Commerce's February core PCE price index, released on March 28, showed a monthly increase of 0.4% and an annual rise of 2.8%, both higher than the market's expected 0.3% and 2.6%. Goldman Sachs' research report on March 31 indicated that this data suggests stubborn inflationary pressures, potentially pushing the core PCE up to 3.5% and downgrading the 2025 GDP growth forecast from 1.5% to 1.0%, with the probability of economic recession rising from 20% to 35%. The University of Michigan's consumer confidence index fell to 57, the lowest since 2022, with consumers' inflation expectations for the next year rising to 5% and the five-year expectation reaching 4.1%, both multi-decade highs.

Statements from Federal Reserve officials exacerbated market concerns. Boston Fed President Collins said that "maintaining higher interest rates for longer is appropriate," while Richmond Fed President warned that tariffs could bring "more persistent inflationary shocks." Goldman Sachs analysts believe that inflation exceeding expectations weakened the expectation of interest rate cuts, driving capital towards safe-haven assets and becoming a significant driver of the market decline.

Policy Uncertainty: Panic Caused by Trump's Tariff Measures

The Trump administration's planned "reciprocal tariff" policy announcement on April 2 is the core catalyst for this crash. Goldman Sachs estimates that tariffs will be imposed on all trading partners at an average rate of 15%, an increase of 5 percentage points from previous expectations, potentially raising import costs and triggering global retaliatory actions. Evercore ISI Senior Strategist Matthew Aks warned that "if other countries retaliate, it could pose risks of tariff escalation, further eroding market confidence." State Street Global Advisors' Chief Investment Strategist Michael Arone pointed out that "uncertainty continues to plague the market, and next week may see a peak in volatility."

Investopedia, citing expert views, said that tariff policies not only boost inflation expectations but could also weaken corporate profitability and consumer spending, with significant impacts on the tech and auto industries. Freedom Capital Markets' Chief Global Strategist Jay Woods said, "As major events approach, investors tend to avoid risks, leading to intensified selling over the weekend." X platform user @White7688 also mentioned that "BTC, influenced by ETF external funds, behaves more like a tech stock than a safe-haven asset."

Capital Flows and Market Linkages

The U.S. stock market's "Black Friday" triggered a chain reaction in risky assets. Nasdaq data showed that the correlation between the Nasdaq Index and Bitcoin reached 0.67 at the beginning of 2025, and its 2.7% drop quickly spread to the crypto market. Bloomberg Commodity Strategist Mike McGlone analyzed that "if the S&P 500 continues to weaken, Ethereum could fall to $1,000, and Bitcoin might probe $72,000." Gold prices hit new highs, and the yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury note fell from Thursday's 4.369% to Friday's 4.254%, indicating an accelerated flow of capital towards safe-haven assets. Crypto-related stocks such as MicroStrategy once fell 11%, and MARA Holdings fell 11%.

Intrinsic Market Risks: Leverage and Shrinking Trading Volume

InvestingHaven predicted that if Bitcoin falls below $77,000, it could trigger about $300 million in long liquidations, further exacerbating the decline. The Block analyzed that the trading volume, which fell from a peak of $126 billion to $35 billion, indicates that market participants may be waiting for regulatory clarity, with a lack of buying support in the short term.

Events to Watch This Week

As the market enters early April, investors need to closely monitor the following key events, which may further influence the trends of the U.S. stock market and the crypto market:

• April 2 (Tuesday): Trump's "Reciprocal Tariff" Policy Announcement

  Overview: The Trump administration plans to announce a policy of imposing an average tariff of 15% on all trading partners. Goldman Sachs estimates that this move will raise import costs and could trigger global retaliatory tariffs. If the tariff measures are as severe as expected, the U.S. stock market could fall by 3%-5%, and Bitcoin might break below the $80,000 support level. If the policy is less severe than expected (e.g., excluding the semiconductor and auto industries), the market could see a brief rebound, with Bitcoin potentially rising to $85,000. Evercore ISI's Matthew Aks pointed out that "the market's reaction will depend on the timing and target industries of the tariffs."

• April 3 (Wednesday): Release of the ECB's March Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

  Overview: The ECB will release the minutes of its March meeting, which may reveal its latest assessment of the eurozone economy and inflation, as well as whether it will accelerate interest rate cuts. If the minutes show a dovish tilt (e.g., further rate cuts), it could boost global risky assets, with the crypto market likely to follow the U.S. stock market's rebound. If it maintains a cautious stance, it could further intensify risk-averse sentiment and suppress the prices of Bitcoin and Ethereum. State Street's Michael Arone believes that "the ECB's policy direction will influence global liquidity expectations."

• April 4 (Thursday): Speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Powell

  Overview: Powell will speak on the U.S. economy and monetary policy, likely responding to inflation data and tariff impacts. If Powell signals rate cuts (e.g., in response to economic slowdown), the U.S. stock market and crypto market could rise by 2%-3%, with Bitcoin potentially breaking above $83,000. If he emphasizes maintaining high interest rates, it could further intensify selling pressure. Bloomberg Analyst Mike McGlone warned that "Powell's tone will directly impact the short-term trend of risky assets."

• April 5 (Friday): U.S. Non-Farm Payroll Report

  Overview: The March non-farm payroll data will reveal the health of the U.S. labor market, with expectations of job growth below 200,000 and the unemployment rate potentially rising to 4.2%. If the data is weak (job growth below 150,000), it will reinforce rate cut expectations, benefiting the U.S. stock market and crypto market, with Bitcoin potentially rebounding to $86,000. If the data is stronger than expected, it could push up U.S. bond yields and suppress risky assets. Goldman Sachs expects that "the non-farm payroll data will be the climax of market volatility this week."

Institutional Views and Market Outlook

Goldman Sachs: Rising Risk of Economic Recession

In its research report on March 31, Goldman Sachs significantly raised its 2025 tariff expectations, estimating an average tariff rate increase of 15 percentage points, core PCE inflation rising to 3.5%, GDP growth slowing to 1.0%, and the unemployment rate climbing to 4.5% by year-end. The bank increased the probability of an economic recession within 12 months to 35% and expects the Federal Reserve to cut rates three times in the second half of the year to address growth pressures. Goldman Sachs analysts noted that "consumers and businesses are in a fragile stage, and the impact of policy risks is greater than in recent years."

Galaxy Research: Crypto Market Still Has Potential

Galaxy Research predicts that Bitcoin could reach $185,000 and Ethereum could exceed $5,500 in 2025, provided there is an improvement in the regulatory environment and deeper institutional adoption. Analyst Alex Thorn believes that "short-term volatility is inevitable, but in the long run, Bitcoin will outperform the S&P 500 and gold." The firm also expects that the total assets under management of U.S. Bitcoin ETFs will break through $250 billion by the end of 2025.

InvestingHaven: Technical Support and Risks Coexist

InvestingHaven analyst Taki Tsaklanos said that the long-term bullish pattern of Bitcoin remains unchanged, with $77,000 being a key support level. If it holds, a rebound could come in May. However, if it breaks, it might test $70,000. Analysts warn that "the market needs to respect the 50% Fibonacci retracement level; otherwise, the bullish expectation will fail."

Bloomberg and Evercore ISI: Increased Short-Term Volatility

Bloomberg strategist Mike McGlone believes that "Bitcoin's high correlation with the Nasdaq 100 makes it more like a high-beta asset, and it may follow the U.S. stock market further downward in the short term." Evercore ISI's Matthew Aks pointed out that "the tariff announcement on April 2 is an important milestone, but uncertainty will not be eliminated all at once, and the market needs to be wary of the chain reaction of retaliatory tariffs."

Summary and Future Trends

The "Black Friday" and crypto weekend crash were the result of a combination of macroeconomic pressures, policy uncertainty, capital flows, and intrinsic market risks. In the short term, the tariff policy announcement on April 2 will be a key turning point. If the measures are severe and trigger global trade frictions, Bitcoin could break below $80,000, and the U.S. stock market may further probe lower. However, the rate cuts expected by Goldman Sachs and the institutional adoption mentioned by Galaxy Research could inject rebound momentum into the market.