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Short-Selling Legend Throws in the Towel on MSTR/BTC: Is the Bitcoin-Treasury Reversal Finally Here?
Support Scarlett
Short-Selling Legend Throws in the Towel on MSTR/BTC: Is the Bitcoin-Treasury Reversal Finally Here?
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Blockchain Knight
November 10, 2025
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The Last Bear Capitulates
James Chanos—Wall Street’s most visible pessimist—has quietly closed the 11-month pair trade that pitted MicroStrategy (MSTR) against spot bitcoin. The position, structured as a long-bitcoin / short-stock spread, was the loudest institutional bet that “bitcoin-on-the-balance-sheet” companies would implode. Its closure marks the end of the best-known short campaign against the crypto-treasury cohort.
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A Classic Trend-Reversal Candle
In technical jargon, covering a structural short is called a “trend-exhaustion signal.” In plain English: when the last die-hard bear gives up, there is no one left to sell. Analysts who spent the summer warning that MSTR traded at a 200 % premium to its bitcoin backing are now recalculating model portfolios. The phrase “the dark hour is just before the dawn” is suddenly appearing in sell-side notes—an inconceivable cliché only two weeks ago.
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The Bruised but Unbroken Ecosystem
The bitcoin-treasury sector has been pummeled since May. Most names are 60–80 % below their spring highs, and adjusted net-asset-value (NAV) discounts have flirted with Great-Depression levels. Pierre Rochard, CEO of The Bitcoin Bond Company, tweeted Saturday: “The bear market in bitcoin treasuries is slowly dying. When Chanos covers, you pay attention.” Rochard’s metric: aggregate short-interest across the group has dropped below 12 % of free-float for the first time since 2023—historically the level where multi-month rallies begin.
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MicroStrategy: Still Buying the Dip
While critics debate timing, MicroStrategy keeps stacking. The company now owns 640 100 BTC and has filed to sell another $2 bn in convertible notes “for general corporate purposes, including additional bitcoin purchases.” Founder Michael Saylor’s risk-management philosophy appears to be “bitcoin is the risk-management.” Chanos confirmed his exit on X: “For those asking—yes, I covered the MSTR/BTC pair at Friday’s open.” Within minutes, “bottom?” polls flooded Crypto-Twitter.
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Wall Street Switches Jerseys
The same banks that once dismissed bitcoin as “rat poison” are now bidding for ETF custody fees. J.P. Morgan’s recent deal to provide prime-brokerage services for BlackRock’s spot-Bitcoin ETF is only the latest example. The conversation inside boardrooms has shifted from “Should we touch crypto?” to “How much crypto should we touch, and how fast?” Corporate treasuries are modeling bitcoin as a Tier-1 reserve asset alongside T-bills and commercial paper—unthinkable when Chanos opened his short last December.
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The Sword Still Hangs
Macro clouds remain. The Fed’s next dot-plot could strengthen the dollar, and the EU’s Markets in Crypto-Assets (MiCA) review is due in Q1. A single enforcement action could still send NAV discounts spiraling. Yet the psychological terrain has changed: the most stubborn institutional bear has capitulated. In narrative terms, the page has turned. The next chapter of the bitcoin-treasury story will be written by a new cast—risk committees, ETF issuers, and CFOs who no longer feel the need to apologize for owning digital gold.
Blockchain Knight
November 10, 2025
---
The Last Bear Capitulates
James Chanos—Wall Street’s most visible pessimist—has quietly closed the 11-month pair trade that pitted MicroStrategy (MSTR) against spot bitcoin. The position, structured as a long-bitcoin / short-stock spread, was the loudest institutional bet that “bitcoin-on-the-balance-sheet” companies would implode. Its closure marks the end of the best-known short campaign against the crypto-treasury cohort.
---
A Classic Trend-Reversal Candle
In technical jargon, covering a structural short is called a “trend-exhaustion signal.” In plain English: when the last die-hard bear gives up, there is no one left to sell. Analysts who spent the summer warning that MSTR traded at a 200 % premium to its bitcoin backing are now recalculating model portfolios. The phrase “the dark hour is just before the dawn” is suddenly appearing in sell-side notes—an inconceivable cliché only two weeks ago.
---
The Bruised but Unbroken Ecosystem
The bitcoin-treasury sector has been pummeled since May. Most names are 60–80 % below their spring highs, and adjusted net-asset-value (NAV) discounts have flirted with Great-Depression levels. Pierre Rochard, CEO of The Bitcoin Bond Company, tweeted Saturday: “The bear market in bitcoin treasuries is slowly dying. When Chanos covers, you pay attention.” Rochard’s metric: aggregate short-interest across the group has dropped below 12 % of free-float for the first time since 2023—historically the level where multi-month rallies begin.
---
MicroStrategy: Still Buying the Dip
While critics debate timing, MicroStrategy keeps stacking. The company now owns 640 100 BTC and has filed to sell another $2 bn in convertible notes “for general corporate purposes, including additional bitcoin purchases.” Founder Michael Saylor’s risk-management philosophy appears to be “bitcoin is the risk-management.” Chanos confirmed his exit on X: “For those asking—yes, I covered the MSTR/BTC pair at Friday’s open.” Within minutes, “bottom?” polls flooded Crypto-Twitter.
---
Wall Street Switches Jerseys
The same banks that once dismissed bitcoin as “rat poison” are now bidding for ETF custody fees. J.P. Morgan’s recent deal to provide prime-brokerage services for BlackRock’s spot-Bitcoin ETF is only the latest example. The conversation inside boardrooms has shifted from “Should we touch crypto?” to “How much crypto should we touch, and how fast?” Corporate treasuries are modeling bitcoin as a Tier-1 reserve asset alongside T-bills and commercial paper—unthinkable when Chanos opened his short last December.
---
The Sword Still Hangs
Macro clouds remain. The Fed’s next dot-plot could strengthen the dollar, and the EU’s Markets in Crypto-Assets (MiCA) review is due in Q1. A single enforcement action could still send NAV discounts spiraling. Yet the psychological terrain has changed: the most stubborn institutional bear has capitulated. In narrative terms, the page has turned. The next chapter of the bitcoin-treasury story will be written by a new cast—risk committees, ETF issuers, and CFOs who no longer feel the need to apologize for owning digital gold.
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