0x22Ce is an experimental trading account, focused on the Optimism Ecosystem DeFi.
0x22Ce is an experimental trading account, focused on the Optimism Ecosystem DeFi.
Subscribe to 0x22Ce
Subscribe to 0x22Ce
Share Dialog
Share Dialog
The max supply of VELO approaches ~1800M.
Our current supply is ~730M.
Our current Circulating Market Cap is 3.7M.
https://twitter.com/VelodromeAlerts/status/1606077229242454018?s=20&t=E2CUamH5abrzZDGyBGESyw
The Velodrome Races are an attempt to maintain, or increase the % of marketcap owned by each participant in the face of 2.5x more supply.
Whatever veVELO you are holding right now, you need 2.5x more of it, and you are better off accumulating during the Tour de OP and immediately afterward -- which means, within the next year.
If you are able to 2.5x your holdings to keep up with dilution, and if you are able to time your unlock for the right span of months, you can assume your current holdings to be at about ~10M Circulating FDV.
This is because the Market Cap being reported above is a reflection of the current supply of VELO on the market -- a number which is increasing aggressively each epoch.
.:.
VELO accumulation is only competitively possible through veVELO locking.
Weekly Bribes
Weekly DCA to ensure a minimum of 10k veVELO per Epoch for remainder of Tour de OP.
Weekly OP Rebate
.:.
[Comparative Eval:]
If you accumulated these DEX tokens in their early stages, you could probably sell them at these market caps:
Note: These numbers are Market Cap for Circulating Supply -- Of which, VELO is likely to have +70% locked in veVELO at its ATH | Max Supply.
$UNI~~ - $10B []~~
UNI is a higher class token in status, though not functionality.
$CAKE~~ - $3B~~
CAKE probably is synonomous with the Dominance of the BNB Ecosystem.
$RUNE~~ = $2B~~
RUNE has this inter-chain edge for non EVM chains.
$OSMO~~ - $2B~~
OSMO is its own appchain, within a network of chains, and is used as a liquidity source between them.
$SUSHI~~ = $1.5B~~
SUSHI is a problem child. They are the example of how to eat your runway, and your customers value, while overpaying yourself on an inflationary token.
$CRV - $1B
CRV is the closest to VELO, because of the veCRV dynamics. Though, CRV is dominant for depth of liquidity.
$1INCH~~ - $500M~~
Aggregator
$RAY - $250M
RAY was a main solana dex - but idk if these numbers are solid, cause SOL ecosystem was pumped up by scammers.
$BAL - $200M
BAL is neat, cause they also have veBAL, and there are index pools. VELO 2.0 will also have these.
$JOE - $200M
JOE was the flagship DEX for the AVAX Ecosystem. Technically AVAX ecosystem was also pumped up by scammers.
$DODO - $200M
First time I used Dodo was on arbitrum -- idk.
$QUICK - $100M
QUICK was flagship DEX for MATIC Ecosystem.
$BOO - $100M
Flagship DEX for FTM.
$PNG~~ - $50M~~
Bullshit TIer 2 DEX for AVAX.
I would place VELO Circulating Market Cap “Take Profit Zone” between 100M and 250M.
I will be looking for those numbers to occur between April ‘25 and Dec ‘25.
.:.
The low end, here, assumes that most of what we saw in the last cycle can be replicated for comparable project | ecosystem pairs.
Here are some additional bull cases, which may increase these projections:
Institutional Adoption
All it would take is one or two Institutions to Adopt using OP DeFi as core infrastructure for their banks, before the next cycle, and we could see multiples more FDV.
SNX itself could make this happen, as it’s next iteration is much closer to OSMO in functionality as an inter-chain liquidity pool.
Robinhood, for example, uses SNX liquidity pools as an intermediary for their trades.
SNX ecosystem’s primary source for $SNX | $KWENTA | $LYRA | $THALES trading volume is Velodrome.
VELO trade volume and FDV goes up.
The L2 Thesis
The marketcaps that promise the most comparison are all the primary DEXs of Alt L1s in the last cycle.
The L2 Thesis is that Security and Tx Volume are better on L2s.
If this is true, then, perhaps the valuation for the OP ecosystem as a whole is greater than the valuation of AVAX at its previous status.
A rising tide lifts VELO FDV.
The Liquidity Pool Co-operative
An interesting point to note, is what SUSHI is currently dealing with -- where they are about to assassinate the core value prop of their token holders by diverting fees away from xSUSHI stakers.
Velodrome as a system, is designed to solve this problem, as well as the inflationary rewards problem which is pushing SUSHI to try and pivot in this way.
The main question of the Velodrome Tokenomics, is that -- we know what the end of SUSHI looks like. We can only guess right now what the end of VELO looks like.
The Bull case for VELO beyond 100M to 250M Circulating MC is dependent on the success of OP and SNX as ecosystems | utilities which cause VELO to out perform comparative “Tier 1 Native DEX” category for Alt L1s last cycle.
As for a Psychological High point, I could put that between 1B and 2B.
That leaves room for upside beyond the 100M to 250M FDV “upper band foundation”, but below previous upper bands for those examples.
SUSHI is ubiquitous on all EVM as a Brand.
OSMO as the Tier 1 LP Service for all of IBC.
CRV as the Tier 1 Deep Liquidity exchange.
Meaning if you were a trader, the previous MC for these tokens may be an upper level of resistance.
TP:
Using this information, we can speculate on the approximate price of VELO when it reaches these ranges in FDV, at full Dilution. -- assuming you also maintain proportional size of your bag, as the supply increases, and assuming that the veVELO is unlocked at a time for you to TP.
100M [10x current price.]
250M [25x current price.]
500M [50x current price.]
1B [100x current price.]
Conclusion:
Accumulate 2.5x your current veVELO holdings, as soon as possible.
Unlock at a spectrum between April ‘25 and Dec ‘25
Once you have reached 2.5x your current target, farm the remainder of your bribes into $LINK | $SNX.
The max supply of VELO approaches ~1800M.
Our current supply is ~730M.
Our current Circulating Market Cap is 3.7M.
https://twitter.com/VelodromeAlerts/status/1606077229242454018?s=20&t=E2CUamH5abrzZDGyBGESyw
The Velodrome Races are an attempt to maintain, or increase the % of marketcap owned by each participant in the face of 2.5x more supply.
Whatever veVELO you are holding right now, you need 2.5x more of it, and you are better off accumulating during the Tour de OP and immediately afterward -- which means, within the next year.
If you are able to 2.5x your holdings to keep up with dilution, and if you are able to time your unlock for the right span of months, you can assume your current holdings to be at about ~10M Circulating FDV.
This is because the Market Cap being reported above is a reflection of the current supply of VELO on the market -- a number which is increasing aggressively each epoch.
.:.
VELO accumulation is only competitively possible through veVELO locking.
Weekly Bribes
Weekly DCA to ensure a minimum of 10k veVELO per Epoch for remainder of Tour de OP.
Weekly OP Rebate
.:.
[Comparative Eval:]
If you accumulated these DEX tokens in their early stages, you could probably sell them at these market caps:
Note: These numbers are Market Cap for Circulating Supply -- Of which, VELO is likely to have +70% locked in veVELO at its ATH | Max Supply.
$UNI~~ - $10B []~~
UNI is a higher class token in status, though not functionality.
$CAKE~~ - $3B~~
CAKE probably is synonomous with the Dominance of the BNB Ecosystem.
$RUNE~~ = $2B~~
RUNE has this inter-chain edge for non EVM chains.
$OSMO~~ - $2B~~
OSMO is its own appchain, within a network of chains, and is used as a liquidity source between them.
$SUSHI~~ = $1.5B~~
SUSHI is a problem child. They are the example of how to eat your runway, and your customers value, while overpaying yourself on an inflationary token.
$CRV - $1B
CRV is the closest to VELO, because of the veCRV dynamics. Though, CRV is dominant for depth of liquidity.
$1INCH~~ - $500M~~
Aggregator
$RAY - $250M
RAY was a main solana dex - but idk if these numbers are solid, cause SOL ecosystem was pumped up by scammers.
$BAL - $200M
BAL is neat, cause they also have veBAL, and there are index pools. VELO 2.0 will also have these.
$JOE - $200M
JOE was the flagship DEX for the AVAX Ecosystem. Technically AVAX ecosystem was also pumped up by scammers.
$DODO - $200M
First time I used Dodo was on arbitrum -- idk.
$QUICK - $100M
QUICK was flagship DEX for MATIC Ecosystem.
$BOO - $100M
Flagship DEX for FTM.
$PNG~~ - $50M~~
Bullshit TIer 2 DEX for AVAX.
I would place VELO Circulating Market Cap “Take Profit Zone” between 100M and 250M.
I will be looking for those numbers to occur between April ‘25 and Dec ‘25.
.:.
The low end, here, assumes that most of what we saw in the last cycle can be replicated for comparable project | ecosystem pairs.
Here are some additional bull cases, which may increase these projections:
Institutional Adoption
All it would take is one or two Institutions to Adopt using OP DeFi as core infrastructure for their banks, before the next cycle, and we could see multiples more FDV.
SNX itself could make this happen, as it’s next iteration is much closer to OSMO in functionality as an inter-chain liquidity pool.
Robinhood, for example, uses SNX liquidity pools as an intermediary for their trades.
SNX ecosystem’s primary source for $SNX | $KWENTA | $LYRA | $THALES trading volume is Velodrome.
VELO trade volume and FDV goes up.
The L2 Thesis
The marketcaps that promise the most comparison are all the primary DEXs of Alt L1s in the last cycle.
The L2 Thesis is that Security and Tx Volume are better on L2s.
If this is true, then, perhaps the valuation for the OP ecosystem as a whole is greater than the valuation of AVAX at its previous status.
A rising tide lifts VELO FDV.
The Liquidity Pool Co-operative
An interesting point to note, is what SUSHI is currently dealing with -- where they are about to assassinate the core value prop of their token holders by diverting fees away from xSUSHI stakers.
Velodrome as a system, is designed to solve this problem, as well as the inflationary rewards problem which is pushing SUSHI to try and pivot in this way.
The main question of the Velodrome Tokenomics, is that -- we know what the end of SUSHI looks like. We can only guess right now what the end of VELO looks like.
The Bull case for VELO beyond 100M to 250M Circulating MC is dependent on the success of OP and SNX as ecosystems | utilities which cause VELO to out perform comparative “Tier 1 Native DEX” category for Alt L1s last cycle.
As for a Psychological High point, I could put that between 1B and 2B.
That leaves room for upside beyond the 100M to 250M FDV “upper band foundation”, but below previous upper bands for those examples.
SUSHI is ubiquitous on all EVM as a Brand.
OSMO as the Tier 1 LP Service for all of IBC.
CRV as the Tier 1 Deep Liquidity exchange.
Meaning if you were a trader, the previous MC for these tokens may be an upper level of resistance.
TP:
Using this information, we can speculate on the approximate price of VELO when it reaches these ranges in FDV, at full Dilution. -- assuming you also maintain proportional size of your bag, as the supply increases, and assuming that the veVELO is unlocked at a time for you to TP.
100M [10x current price.]
250M [25x current price.]
500M [50x current price.]
1B [100x current price.]
Conclusion:
Accumulate 2.5x your current veVELO holdings, as soon as possible.
Unlock at a spectrum between April ‘25 and Dec ‘25
Once you have reached 2.5x your current target, farm the remainder of your bribes into $LINK | $SNX.
The End Case for veVELO holders, is Protocol owned Liquidity, where the Protocols themselves own the veVELO, and redirect fees back to their treasuries.
VELO gets to build itself a perpetual operating path within this, by perma-locking its own allocation.
Bribes on top of this -- are a market driven incentive to bridge the gap between the yield that can be attained elsewhere, and the incentives for supporting that LP Pool.
It may be that this core structural principle of diversifying ownership of veVELO from inception creates a more resilient long term environment for LP services on Optimism.
SNX Ecosystem Adoption could lead to Integrations:
SNX Teleporters allows 1inch and Curve to make trades with sUSD as an intermediary, and is able to undercut the market.
It also makes those exchanges cross-chain.
a SNX integration into Velodrome could make it cross chain.
The End Case for veVELO holders, is Protocol owned Liquidity, where the Protocols themselves own the veVELO, and redirect fees back to their treasuries.
VELO gets to build itself a perpetual operating path within this, by perma-locking its own allocation.
Bribes on top of this -- are a market driven incentive to bridge the gap between the yield that can be attained elsewhere, and the incentives for supporting that LP Pool.
It may be that this core structural principle of diversifying ownership of veVELO from inception creates a more resilient long term environment for LP services on Optimism.
SNX Ecosystem Adoption could lead to Integrations:
SNX Teleporters allows 1inch and Curve to make trades with sUSD as an intermediary, and is able to undercut the market.
It also makes those exchanges cross-chain.
a SNX integration into Velodrome could make it cross chain.
<100 subscribers
<100 subscribers
No activity yet