JPMorgan analysts believe that bitcoin has bottomed out after a price decline to around $94,000 in early to mid-November 2025. They anticipate bitcoin could challenge gold's market capitalization by 2026, driven by a potential price increase to nearly $170,000. The forecast is based on bitcoin's dropping volatility relative to gold and suggests significant upside for bitcoin in the coming 6-12 months. 

Key points from the JPMorgan analysis:

• Bitcoin Bottom: JPMorgan believes the price floor for bitcoin is around $94,000, given its production costs.

• Gold Market Cap Challenge: The forecast for bitcoin to challenge gold by 2026 is based on a volatility-adjusted comparison, which suggests a potential bitcoin price of around $170,000. This is put in perspective against gold's $28.3 trillion market cap and bitcoin's much smaller market cap of around $1.9 trillion earlier in 2025.

• Reduced Volatility: Analysts noted that the bitcoin-to-gold volatility ratio has trended downward, making bitcoin more attractive to investors on a risk-adjusted basis.

• Recent Market Activity: The prediction comes after a period of fluctuation where bitcoin fell from a peak of $126,000 to below $100,000, which JPMorgan attributes to deleveraging in perpetual futures.

• Institutional Adoption: Growing institutional adoption, including the expansion of bitcoin ETFs, crypto treasury companies, and Wall Street's move toward asset tokenization, is expected to bolster bitcoin's price.

• Recent price history:

  • November 16, 2025: Current bitcoin price is around $95,981.50 USD.

  • November 17, 2025: The real-time BTC to USD price update shows the current Bitcoin price as $95,981.50 USD.

• JPMorgan's Fair Value Target: According to a report in early November 2025, JPMorgan analysts pointed to a fair value of $170,000 within 6 to 12 months, based on the volatility ratio relative to gold.