Monday, 01/12/2025 | 12:13 GMT by Damian Chmiel

• XRP plunged 7% to $2.05 on Monday, December 1, the biggest drop in the month after failing $2.19-$2.29 resistance multiple sessions

• Friday supply pin bar signaled demand exhaustion; my Fibonacci analysis targets $1.90, then $1.61 April levels, ultimately $1.25.

• The death cross was confirmed last month below the 200 EMA despite $640M in ETF inflows and 85%+ odds of a 75%+ December rate cut from the Fed.

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XRP price is falling during today’s (Monday's) session, December 1, 2025 session most strongly in a month, plunging 7% and establishing session minimums at $2.01 level. At the moment of writing these words, quotations have rebounded slightly to around $2.04, which still involves a strong one-day decline.

As visible on the chart I attached, the move came after the cryptocurrency for several sessions could not cope with resistance in the range of $2.19-$2.29, which until recently constituted a support zone.

In this article I examine why XRP price is going down today and analyze the XRP/USDT chart, based on my 10-years’ experience as an analyst and trader.

The supply pin bar generated last Friday, a candle with a long lower wick and a short body, was a signal that demand is not able to overcome this zone and supply may return to control, which is exactly what we're seeing at this moment. According to my technical analysis, the breakdown open doors to much lowers levels.

Joel Kruger, crypto strategist at LMAX Group, explains the broader context: "Crypto markets enter Monday on the back foot, with bitcoin and ether sliding further as the broader digital-asset complex struggles to regain footing after a sharp multi-week drawdown."

The first target level for declines at a short distance is around $1.90 where depreciation stopped at the end of last month.

Generally in my medium-term and long-term analysis, I see targets decidedly lower: first looking at $1.61, April levels, ultimately at the $1.25 level, levels observed over a year ago, which results from Fibonacci extension analysis.

I remind simultaneously that on the XRP chart officially a bearish trend dominates, as we're moving below key moving averages and above all below the 200-day exponential moving average (200 EMA). Two averages I track, the 50 EMA and 200 EMA, also crossed in last month, which created the so-called death cross, a very strong bearish signal, which supports my bearish narrative.

Why is XRP dropping in price so dramatically on Monday? Multiple factors converged to trigger the 7% plunge. Kruger notes that "sentiment has been hit not only by the October liquidation cascade but also by growing disappointment that bitcoin failed to hold the psychologically important $100,000 level, a breach that has damaged confidence."

• Resistance failure: Multiple sessions unable to break $2.19-$2.29 zone (former support)

• Supply pin bar: Friday's long lower wick signaled demand exhaustion, supply control

• Institutional selling: Large holders overpowering $640M ETF inflows per CoinDesk

• Bitcoin weakness: BTC failure at $100K "damaged confidence" across altcoins

• Death cross confirmed: 50 EMA below 200 EMA last month, strong bearish signal

• November -18%: Down 18% past month despite historical December strength

• Sell-the-news: ETF launches treated as selling opportunities, not buying catalysts

• Leverage unwind: Substantial capital exiting within 12-hour period per market data

Kruger adds that "this has compounded frustration among traders who had leaned heavily on seasonal trend analysis pointing to a historically strong Q4, a pattern that has clearly not materialized this year."[provided quote]

Despite the technical breakdown, some analysts see the decline as a buying opportunity. Simon Peters, crypto analyst at eToro, offers a contrarian perspective: "The dip could be short lived however, as markets have been gaining momentum recently due to the odds of a rate cut at December's FOMC meeting increasing significantly in the last week."

Peters notes that "traders and investors are now pricing in more than an 85% chance of the Fed lowering the target rate by 25 basis points on 10th December."[provided quote] This dovish pivot could provide support for risk assets including XRP if it materializes as expected.

Standard Chartered, one of the world's leading banking institutions, presented an ambitious forecast earlier in 2025 predicting XRP could soar to $5.50 by year-end. This price, which would mark a new all-time high for the altcoin, represents a 168% increase from today's $2.05 level.

Looking further ahead, Standard Chartered suggests these gains would continue into 2028. "According to the investment bank, XRP price has the potential to reach $12.50 by the end of 2028," which would mark a 509% rise from the current $2.05 price.

Former Goldman Sachs analyst Dom Kwok sparked intense debate with his audacious XRP price prediction of $1,000 by 2030, representing a staggering 48,680% surge from current $2.05 levels.

More conservative near-term targets from technical analysis suggest $4.50-$5.50 over the next 6-12 months using Fibonacci extensions, with the upper $5.50 target representing a 120% gain from current levels, still far exceeding most mainstream forecasts yet remaining exponentially below Kwok's $1,000 projection.

Renowned market analyst Crypto Bull suggests XRP is primed for a major breakout after completing the classic cup-and-handle pattern, "one of crypto's most reliable bullish signals, often preceding explosive rallies when backed by strong volume."

The extraordinary gap between forecasts illustrates the polarized sentiment surrounding XRP

• Ultra-Bearish$1.90 → $1.61 → $1.25 from Fibonacci extensions, death cross, resistance failure

• Moderately Bullish (Standard Chartered 2025): $5.50 year-end, $12.50 by 2028

• Very Bullish (Crypto Bull): $7 cup & handle target

• Extremely Bullish (Bank Adoption Model): $33 with major institutional usage

• Ultra-Bullish (Dom Kwok/Ex-Goldman): $1,000 by 2030

Before you leave, please also check my previous XRP price predictions' articles:

• How Low Can XRP Go? Expert Predicts 55% XRP Price Slump to Just $1

• Why XRP Is Going Down? Crypto Falls Today With Bitcoin and Could Drop 50% According to This New XRP Price Prediction

XRP dropped 7% to $2.05 Monday December 1 (biggest decline in month) after failing to break $2.19-$2.29 resistance over multiple sessions. Friday supply pin bar (long lower wick, short body) signaled demand exhaustion and supply returning to control.

The outlook is mixed. Bearish view: My analysis targets $1.90 then $1.61/$1.25 from Fibonacci extensions, CoinDesk sees move to $1.80, death cross and below 200 EMA confirm downtrend, November -18% despite historical December strength. Bullish case: Simon Peters (eToro) says "dip could be short lived" with Fed 85%+ Dec 10 cut odds.

Ripple Labs controls majority of XRP supply through escrow system. While exact current percentage varies, Ripple historically held over 50 billion XRP (more than half of 100 billion total supply) in escrow, releasing up to 1 billion monthly for operational expenses and ecosystem development, though often returning unsold portions.