US CPI numbers are out. Although the forecast was 8.1% YoY, the actual numbers printed 8.2% YoY. It tells us that the perceived inflation figures are not matching the actual inflation. We know that government data is often inadequate and under-representative. So the actual inflation figures might be even scarier. 

The core inflation data is also high. The forecast was around 6.5%, while the actual numbers came out to be 6.6%. Inflation is not slowing down, which is good news for investors.

But inflation increases living expenses and decreases investor confidence, right? The short answer is not necessarily. 

The US is facing a recession now. 93% of the CEOs believe we will have an extended global recession. Most of the tech startups, especially web3 startups, are failing. Crypto companies, be it exchanges, research organizations, or VC firms, are downsizing. In short, the management world believes crypto is finished. 

This is the picture the VCs and powerful media firms want us to believe. They bombard naive investors with technical words like recession, monetary policy shift, and more. Traders draw random lines on bitcoin charts, and somebody notices a peculiar structure and predicts bitcoin to go below $10k. On top of that, tech pessimists, come again to predict doom and gloom.

So how can someone stay sane amidst all this negative news? Simple. Don't listen to them, but watch what they do and follow the smart money. 

Major banks all over the world are becoming crypto-friendly day by day. Nations adopt the bitcoin standard as their legal tender. And we, the crypto natives, have reached a stage where we need to rethink crypto. Most of us treat crypto as a speculative, risk-on asset. Well, crypto is still a speculative asset, but the inherent technology isn't. Blockchain technology is robust and futuristic. The rich are building a new world around the internet, and crypto is the internet money. 

In light of this info, try to see defi as the new banking system and the metaverse as the new economy. Select defi protocols that generate a net profit in the bear market, and invest in the token. Select Layer-1 chains where developers are still building innovative projects and invest in them. 

Also, find what you are passionate about in the space. Put your money into your passion. If you are working in the infrastructure sector, choose infra projects. If you are in the medical field, choose blockchains that offer the most privacy. If you are working in a supermarket, invest in the exchange coins. This is how you survive and emerge strong in a bear market. Follow this strategy, and you will find the way. 

Before we tread to some on-chain discussions, let's learn how to be safe in crypto. 

Crypto hackers stole almost 3 billion dollars in 2022. In October alone (the month is not over yet), around $718 million has been stolen. Although you might have taken the necessary steps to be safe, let's do a checklist in case we have missed something.

On Mobile

1. Avoid keeping a significant amount of crypto in mobile wallets. Malware can steal your seed phrase from the wallet. So writing it down and keeping it safe might not be enough.

2. Avoid the habit of Copying + Pasting wallet addresses in times of crypto withdrawals. If you have to, try to cross-check the last 4 characters. Try to use the QR scan option for more accuracy.

3. Do not use any centralized exchange to hodl crypto. Use a ledger if possible.

You can also use a soft wallet (like metamask) as your cold wallet. Here is how.

1. Go to https://www.exodus.com/download/ and download exodus for your PC/Mac.

2. Turn off the internet, and create a wallet. Write down the seed phrase, and copy the public address (Bitcoin, ETH, etc.)

3. Uninstall the wallet and clear all cache.

4. Now, you can use the wallet address as a safe storage option. When you decide to take profit, install the wallet again and transfer crypto.

On PC or Mac

1. Install https://brave.com/download-beta/ as your crypto browser.

2. Never visit non-crypto websites or install any non-crypto extensions (Grammarly, Read Aloud, Screenshots, etc.). 

3. Passwords for your crypto wallet extensions shall be simple (12345678 also works but should not be saved in the browser prompt)

4. As a good practice, do not install unknown apps. 

5. Use a ledger for safe keeping of your assets, and use a hot wallet for daily transactions.

6. When you interact with a new platform for airdrops and NFT minting, try to use a burner wallet. The wallet shall hold minimal funds for gas.

7. Use chainlist.org to add networks in Metamask. Remember to disconnect from connected websites frequently

Make use of explorers. You don't need to be on-chain detectives to stay safe from potential bridge hacks. 

For example, when you use the Celer bridge, check the block explorer first. (See the screenshot below)

Check the last 10 transactions in your preferred network. For example, if you want to bridge between Optimism and the BNB chain, check the transactions involving both. 

**Ensure that no large amount got bridged ( >1 million)  in the last 10 transactions. **You can find Explorer in most of the bridge infrastructure. 

• For the first time since 2018, crypto venture funding fell for two consecutive quarters. It means VCs are becoming conservative in their investment. Protocols that can generate revenue get ample funding. So investing in such tokens is crucial.

• Infrastructure startups continue to show strong growth at the seed stage, and funding is yet to plumb to the depths of pre-2021 levels.

• So institutions are interested in infrastructures. Allocate a small portion of your portfolio to infrastructure projects, and this can include layer-1s also.

• Bitcoin Open interest rose to 500,000 BTC. It shows the amount of leverage in the system is unreal and unsustainable. Even a small 5% move can flush out this leverage. So a leverage shakeout will not be scary as before.

• Funding rates turned negative since the drop from the $22K level. So exchanges can play with liquidity to liquidate shorters. A series of liquidations can sustain a small bullish price action.

Note: As miners are not profitable at this level, we should expect a capitulation event anytime in the next 30 days. Take long positions when that happens. 

Even though miners are at a loss, hashrate hits a new All-Time High! During a capitulation event, we can see hashrate going down, which will confirm the bear market bottom (Given WW3 or Covid 2.0 does not occur)

Alright! That’s a wrap for the week. Stay safe and Invest Wisely! ** **The intelligent investor is a realist who sells to optimists and buys from pessimists

US CPI numbers are out. Although the forecast was 8.1% YoY, the actual numbers printed 8.2% YoY. It tells us that the perceived inflation figures are not matching the actual inflation. We know that government data is often inadequate and under-representative. So the actual inflation figures might be even scarier. 

The core inflation data is also high. The forecast was around 6.5%, while the actual numbers came out to be 6.6%. Inflation is not slowing down, which is good news for investors.

But inflation increases living expenses and decreases investor confidence, right? The short answer is not necessarily. 

The US is facing a recession now. 93% of the CEOs believe we will have an extended global recession. Most of the tech startups, especially web3 startups, are failing. Crypto companies, be it exchanges, research organizations, or VC firms, are downsizing. In short, the management world believes crypto is finished. 

This is the picture the VCs and powerful media firms want us to believe. They bombard naive investors with technical words like recession, monetary policy shift, and more. Traders draw random lines on bitcoin charts, and somebody notices a peculiar structure and predicts bitcoin to go below $10k. On top of that, tech pessimists, come again to predict doom and gloom.

So how can someone stay sane amidst all this negative news? Simple. Don't listen to them, but watch what they do and follow the smart money. 

Major banks all over the world are becoming crypto-friendly day by day. Nations adopt the bitcoin standard as their legal tender. And we, the crypto natives, have reached a stage where we need to rethink crypto. Most of us treat crypto as a speculative, risk-on asset. Well, crypto is still a speculative asset, but the inherent technology isn't. Blockchain technology is robust and futuristic. The rich are building a new world around the internet, and crypto is the internet money. 

In light of this info, try to see defi as the new banking system and the metaverse as the new economy. Select defi protocols that generate a net profit in the bear market, and invest in the token. Select Layer-1 chains where developers are still building innovative projects and invest in them. 

Also, find what you are passionate about in the space. Put your money into your passion. If you are working in the infrastructure sector, choose infra projects. If you are in the medical field, choose blockchains that offer the most privacy. If you are working in a supermarket, invest in the exchange coins. This is how you survive and emerge strong in a bear market. Follow this strategy, and you will find the way. 

Before we tread to some on-chain discussions, let's learn how to be safe in crypto. 

Crypto hackers stole almost 3 billion dollars in 2022. In October alone (the month is not over yet), around $718 million has been stolen. Although you might have taken the necessary steps to be safe, let's do a checklist in case we have missed something.

On Mobile

1. Avoid keeping a significant amount of crypto in mobile wallets. Malware can steal your seed phrase from the wallet. So writing it down and keeping it safe might not be enough.

2. Avoid the habit of Copying + Pasting wallet addresses in times of crypto withdrawals. If you have to, try to cross-check the last 4 characters. Try to use the QR scan option for more accuracy.

3. Do not use any centralized exchange to hodl crypto. Use a ledger if possible.

You can also use a soft wallet (like metamask) as your cold wallet. Here is how.

1. Go to https://www.exodus.com/download/ and download exodus for your PC/Mac.

2. Turn off the internet, and create a wallet. Write down the seed phrase, and copy the public address (Bitcoin, ETH, etc.)

3. Uninstall the wallet and clear all cache.

4. Now, you can use the wallet address as a safe storage option. When you decide to take profit, install the wallet again and transfer crypto.

On PC or Mac

1. Install https://brave.com/download-beta/ as your crypto browser.

2. Never visit non-crypto websites or install any non-crypto extensions (Grammarly, Read Aloud, Screenshots, etc.). 

3. Passwords for your crypto wallet extensions shall be simple (12345678 also works but should not be saved in the browser prompt)

4. As a good practice, do not install unknown apps. 

5. Use a ledger for safe keeping of your assets, and use a hot wallet for daily transactions.

6. When you interact with a new platform for airdrops and NFT minting, try to use a burner wallet. The wallet shall hold minimal funds for gas.

7. Use chainlist.org to add networks in Metamask. Remember to disconnect from connected websites frequently

Make use of explorers. You don't need to be on-chain detectives to stay safe from potential bridge hacks. 

For example, when you use the Celer bridge, check the block explorer first. (See the screenshot below)

Check the last 10 transactions in your preferred network. For example, if you want to bridge between Optimism and the BNB chain, check the transactions involving both. 

**Ensure that no large amount got bridged ( >1 million)  in the last 10 transactions. **You can find Explorer in most of the bridge infrastructure. 

• For the first time since 2018, crypto venture funding fell for two consecutive quarters. It means VCs are becoming conservative in their investment. Protocols that can generate revenue get ample funding. So investing in such tokens is crucial.

• Infrastructure startups continue to show strong growth at the seed stage, and funding is yet to plumb to the depths of pre-2021 levels.

• So institutions are interested in infrastructures. Allocate a small portion of your portfolio to infrastructure projects, and this can include layer-1s also.

• Bitcoin Open interest rose to 500,000 BTC. It shows the amount of leverage in the system is unreal and unsustainable. Even a small 5% move can flush out this leverage. So a leverage shakeout will not be scary as before.

• Funding rates turned negative since the drop from the $22K level. So exchanges can play with liquidity to liquidate shorters. A series of liquidations can sustain a small bullish price action.

Note: As miners are not profitable at this level, we should expect a capitulation event anytime in the next 30 days. Take long positions when that happens. 

Even though miners are at a loss, hashrate hits a new All-Time High! During a capitulation event, we can see hashrate going down, which will confirm the bear market bottom (Given WW3 or Covid 2.0 does not occur)

Alright! That’s a wrap for the week. Stay safe and Invest Wisely! ** **The intelligent investor is a realist who sells to optimists and buys from pessimists