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We have entered a whole new market led by Ethereum and Solana. Both have gained throughout the week, thanks to the merge date announcement. Also, the macroeconomic conditions were instrumental in deciding the price action. CPI numbers invoked a positive reaction, and the NFT market has considerable volume now. Although the numbers were encouraging, they are still remarkably high. Given all the positive sentiment, surprisingly, we are not seeing the surge of volume that usually accompanies confidence.
OpenSea's daily volume is just shy of $30m. It is important as $30m remains the highest number for the past 30 days. Market cap is also up 5.24% month on month. In the last NFT weekly, we discussed how August is a favorable month for NFTs.
Transaction count maintained an incredible start to August but has failed to reach the momentum of July beginning. In defense, there are a few more days to go until 1st half of August. There is no doubt that if the positive sentiment stays, the relief rally will have a bit more room to grow. Confidence usually comes back when traders realize there are bargains in the market. Perhaps it might be late for them, but that is the game we all play! Take calculated risks, and accept profits or losses.
Best of the best take advantage of the opportunity, while beginners look for exit liquidity. On a more serious note, most collections are not liquid now. It is a fact, maybe an ugly fact as well. But it is counterintuitive also. Why would someone buy an NFT to exit in a hurry?
If your reason is
Utility - ask yourself; has the utility disappeared?
Community - is the community inactive?
Art - is the artwork not appealing anymore?
Flipping - Now we are talking, let's focus on flippers and traders.
Liquidity
Rug (DYOR is a joke)
Floor drops
Your NFT isn't rare, but a random piece of garbage.
Your influencer dumped on you.
While I do not have the final solution to all these bewildering, confusing problems, let's tackle them one by one.
Liquidity
Wassies is a trending collection in OpenSea. It has a 0.5 ETH floor and 9.5K ETH volume. A total of 12.3K NFTs held by 2.5K wallets.
OS throws all these data at you, making you believe that this is a pretty good collection to trade.
But what is the reality? Let us inspect the all-time sales activity. Hmm.. the sales seem okay, and the floor continues to hold. But what about the volume? Then you look at the little blue lines in the chart, but there aren't any after April. But when you hover over a particular day, you can see the number of sales range in 1-3.
However, there is no point in accusing the collection if the sales are low. It could be due to the bad market conditions. Or the holders belong to the elite diamond hand category. To avoid confusion, you filter the collection with the listings parameter. You can see that many holders have listed their NFTs (to sell), but nobody is buying them!
The takeaway is straightforward. Check sales and listings before you decide to flip an NFT.
We will discuss the second problem - rug, next week. How to avoid rugs, how to identify rugs, and finally, how to confirm you got rugged!
NFT space moves at a fast pace compared to other arms of the crypto market. For the first time in a while, we see new entrants in the Top NFT Collections. The Bored Ape Yacht Club has moved out of the Top 5. However, the OG bluechip, Crypto Punks remains in the Top 5, from last week. We have three new collections in the Top 5.
RareApepe YC is an unholy mixture of BAYC and RarePepesa. This degen collection has certainly sparked interest among the community.
Webaverse Genesis Pass allows holders to participate in The Upstreat open metaverse. Holders get to claim a parcel of land and future airdrops.
We also have Moonbirds re-entering into the top 5. There is a lot of fud surrounding the collection as it recently transferred to a CCO license. Anyone can now utilize Moonbirds NFTs without any copyright limitations. A bold move for sure. Holders who invariably hated the idea have sold to entry liquidity for the supporters. The volume has gone up more than 200% since last week.
Derisk is a user-friendly tool that calculates the actual profit of selling an NFT, factoring in gas, royalties, and marketplace fees. It saves a lot of time if you flip too often. Having an idea of the breakeven price can be helpful too.
The NFTinit profit calculator is a more advanced tool to calculate the profit/loss with even more features to play with.
In the bear market, too many people are selling for a loss. It is not because they sell for an amount lower than entry. Unfortunately, most people fail to factor in all the costs.
https://nftinit.com/nft-profit-calculator
And that’s a wrap for this week’s NFT outlook - see you next week!
We have entered a whole new market led by Ethereum and Solana. Both have gained throughout the week, thanks to the merge date announcement. Also, the macroeconomic conditions were instrumental in deciding the price action. CPI numbers invoked a positive reaction, and the NFT market has considerable volume now. Although the numbers were encouraging, they are still remarkably high. Given all the positive sentiment, surprisingly, we are not seeing the surge of volume that usually accompanies confidence.
OpenSea's daily volume is just shy of $30m. It is important as $30m remains the highest number for the past 30 days. Market cap is also up 5.24% month on month. In the last NFT weekly, we discussed how August is a favorable month for NFTs.
Transaction count maintained an incredible start to August but has failed to reach the momentum of July beginning. In defense, there are a few more days to go until 1st half of August. There is no doubt that if the positive sentiment stays, the relief rally will have a bit more room to grow. Confidence usually comes back when traders realize there are bargains in the market. Perhaps it might be late for them, but that is the game we all play! Take calculated risks, and accept profits or losses.
Best of the best take advantage of the opportunity, while beginners look for exit liquidity. On a more serious note, most collections are not liquid now. It is a fact, maybe an ugly fact as well. But it is counterintuitive also. Why would someone buy an NFT to exit in a hurry?
If your reason is
Utility - ask yourself; has the utility disappeared?
Community - is the community inactive?
Art - is the artwork not appealing anymore?
Flipping - Now we are talking, let's focus on flippers and traders.
Liquidity
Rug (DYOR is a joke)
Floor drops
Your NFT isn't rare, but a random piece of garbage.
Your influencer dumped on you.
While I do not have the final solution to all these bewildering, confusing problems, let's tackle them one by one.
Liquidity
Wassies is a trending collection in OpenSea. It has a 0.5 ETH floor and 9.5K ETH volume. A total of 12.3K NFTs held by 2.5K wallets.
OS throws all these data at you, making you believe that this is a pretty good collection to trade.
But what is the reality? Let us inspect the all-time sales activity. Hmm.. the sales seem okay, and the floor continues to hold. But what about the volume? Then you look at the little blue lines in the chart, but there aren't any after April. But when you hover over a particular day, you can see the number of sales range in 1-3.
However, there is no point in accusing the collection if the sales are low. It could be due to the bad market conditions. Or the holders belong to the elite diamond hand category. To avoid confusion, you filter the collection with the listings parameter. You can see that many holders have listed their NFTs (to sell), but nobody is buying them!
The takeaway is straightforward. Check sales and listings before you decide to flip an NFT.
We will discuss the second problem - rug, next week. How to avoid rugs, how to identify rugs, and finally, how to confirm you got rugged!
NFT space moves at a fast pace compared to other arms of the crypto market. For the first time in a while, we see new entrants in the Top NFT Collections. The Bored Ape Yacht Club has moved out of the Top 5. However, the OG bluechip, Crypto Punks remains in the Top 5, from last week. We have three new collections in the Top 5.
RareApepe YC is an unholy mixture of BAYC and RarePepesa. This degen collection has certainly sparked interest among the community.
Webaverse Genesis Pass allows holders to participate in The Upstreat open metaverse. Holders get to claim a parcel of land and future airdrops.
We also have Moonbirds re-entering into the top 5. There is a lot of fud surrounding the collection as it recently transferred to a CCO license. Anyone can now utilize Moonbirds NFTs without any copyright limitations. A bold move for sure. Holders who invariably hated the idea have sold to entry liquidity for the supporters. The volume has gone up more than 200% since last week.
Derisk is a user-friendly tool that calculates the actual profit of selling an NFT, factoring in gas, royalties, and marketplace fees. It saves a lot of time if you flip too often. Having an idea of the breakeven price can be helpful too.
The NFTinit profit calculator is a more advanced tool to calculate the profit/loss with even more features to play with.
In the bear market, too many people are selling for a loss. It is not because they sell for an amount lower than entry. Unfortunately, most people fail to factor in all the costs.
https://nftinit.com/nft-profit-calculator
And that’s a wrap for this week’s NFT outlook - see you next week!
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