there is a 95.9% probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged this week, and a 4.1% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut. The probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged by September is 0%, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut is 86.8%, the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 50 basis points is 12.8%, and the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 75 basis points is 0.4%.