It's not politicos or investment bankers who hold the key here. It's policymakers at the Federal Reserve who are trying to cool off 40-year high inflation by raising interest rates. Another three-quarter-point interest rate hike is expected this week, along with critical readings on second -uarter GDP, consumer confidence, and a consumer price reading. (More fodder for the recession guessing game.)

"You can look at the last six times that the Fed has adopted a rising interest rate environment...since 1980," Doug Flynn, certified financial planner with Flynn Zito Asset Management, told me Monday morning. "Four of those we did go into a recession."

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Eventually, Flynn says of Summers and Yellen, "one of them is going to be right." The deciding factor will be the Fed.

"It's a delicate balance and it's difficult for the Fed to navigate just the right mixture of raising (rates) enough without causing the recession."

It's not politicos or investment bankers who hold the key here. It's policymakers at the Federal Reserve who are trying to cool off 40-year high inflation by raising interest rates. Another three-quarter-point interest rate hike is expected this week, along with critical readings on second -uarter GDP, consumer confidence, and a consumer price reading. (More fodder for the recession guessing game.)

"You can look at the last six times that the Fed has adopted a rising interest rate environment...since 1980," Doug Flynn, certified financial planner with Flynn Zito Asset Management, told me Monday morning. "Four of those we did go into a recession."

*

Eventually, Flynn says of Summers and Yellen, "one of them is going to be right." The deciding factor will be the Fed.

"It's a delicate balance and it's difficult for the Fed to navigate just the right mixture of raising (rates) enough without causing the recession."