In the halls of high finance, we talk about "alpha." In the beauty industry, they talk about "aesthetics." Coty Inc. (NYSE: COTY) has spent the last decade failing at both.

To understand why a heritage giant is currently trading at the price of a latte, you have to go back to the "Original Sin": the 2016 acquisition of P&G’s specialty beauty business. It was a deal sold as a coronation—Coty would become the #3 beauty company in the world. Instead, it was a poisoning. Coty swallowed 43 brands for $12.5 billion. They bought declining assets (CoverGirl, Max Factor) at peak valuation, financed by debt that would cripple their balance sheet for a decade. When Sue Y. Nabi took the helm in 2020, she didn't inherit a company; she inherited a crime scene.

The Miss: Coty played the game of Television. Competitors like e.l.f. Beauty and Rare Beauty played the game of TikTok.

• e.l.f. understood that in 2024/25, your brand is not what you tell people it is; it’s what a 19-year-old creator in Ohio says it is. They leaned into "dupe culture," speed-to-market (weeks, not months), and raw, lo-fi content.

• Coty (specifically CoverGirl and Rimmel) kept hiring "safe" celebrity ambassadors and producing polished, 16:9 TV spots that looked like artifacts on a vertical phone screen. They tried to buy coolness, but on TikTok, you can only earn it.

Her strategy was sound: "Fragrance is the Lipstick Index of the 2020s."
She premiumized the portfolio. She launched Burberry Goddess (a massive hit). She stabilized the ship. But you cannot bail out a boat with a teaspoon when the hull is breached. The P&G debt load means every dollar of profit goes to interest payments, not to the R&D and marketing risks required to beat e.l.f. or L'Oréal.

• The Play: Spin off or sell the Consumer Beauty division (CoverGirl, Rimmel, Sally Hansen). Let private equity strip it for parts.

• The Future: Coty becomes a pure-play Prestige Fragrance & Skincare House. Smaller revenue, but higher margins, better multiples, and a balance sheet that doesn't look like a horror movie.

If you are building a campaign these are the vectors of growth. Coty is hitting #1, but missing #3 and #4.

1. "Scent-Scaping" / "Fragrance Wardrobing": Gen Z is buying perfume not as a signature scent, but as a mood accessory. (Coty is winning here).

2. "Dark Cherry" / "Black Honey" Aesthetic: The move from "Clean Girl" pinks to moody, grunge-inspired deep reds and purples.

3. "Butter Skin": Not "glass" (too wet), not "matte" (too dry). A satin, blurred finish that looks expensive.

4. "Bio-hacking Beauty": Skincare infused with adaptogens, mushrooms, and longevity-focused ingredients.

5. "Micro-splicing": The trend of "duping" high-end professional treatments (lash lifts, brow lamination) with at-home drugstore products.

UGC MARKETING MUSIC - www.coffeebarroasters.com

Leadership overhang: Reuters/FT report JAB-driven leadership shake-up; CEO Sue Nabi and Chair Peter Harf may exit; Gucci license loss in 2028 also flagged.

Need a quick playbook - connect on www.DIVIDOND.com "PLAYBOOK" to get this guide for free www.algocontentseo.com

In the halls of high finance, we talk about "alpha." In the beauty industry, they talk about "aesthetics." Coty Inc. (NYSE: COTY) has spent the last decade failing at both.

To understand why a heritage giant is currently trading at the price of a latte, you have to go back to the "Original Sin": the 2016 acquisition of P&G’s specialty beauty business. It was a deal sold as a coronation—Coty would become the #3 beauty company in the world. Instead, it was a poisoning. Coty swallowed 43 brands for $12.5 billion. They bought declining assets (CoverGirl, Max Factor) at peak valuation, financed by debt that would cripple their balance sheet for a decade. When Sue Y. Nabi took the helm in 2020, she didn't inherit a company; she inherited a crime scene.

The Miss: Coty played the game of Television. Competitors like e.l.f. Beauty and Rare Beauty played the game of TikTok.

• e.l.f. understood that in 2024/25, your brand is not what you tell people it is; it’s what a 19-year-old creator in Ohio says it is. They leaned into "dupe culture," speed-to-market (weeks, not months), and raw, lo-fi content.

• Coty (specifically CoverGirl and Rimmel) kept hiring "safe" celebrity ambassadors and producing polished, 16:9 TV spots that looked like artifacts on a vertical phone screen. They tried to buy coolness, but on TikTok, you can only earn it.

Her strategy was sound: "Fragrance is the Lipstick Index of the 2020s."
She premiumized the portfolio. She launched Burberry Goddess (a massive hit). She stabilized the ship. But you cannot bail out a boat with a teaspoon when the hull is breached. The P&G debt load means every dollar of profit goes to interest payments, not to the R&D and marketing risks required to beat e.l.f. or L'Oréal.

• The Play: Spin off or sell the Consumer Beauty division (CoverGirl, Rimmel, Sally Hansen). Let private equity strip it for parts.

• The Future: Coty becomes a pure-play Prestige Fragrance & Skincare House. Smaller revenue, but higher margins, better multiples, and a balance sheet that doesn't look like a horror movie.

If you are building a campaign these are the vectors of growth. Coty is hitting #1, but missing #3 and #4.

1. "Scent-Scaping" / "Fragrance Wardrobing": Gen Z is buying perfume not as a signature scent, but as a mood accessory. (Coty is winning here).

2. "Dark Cherry" / "Black Honey" Aesthetic: The move from "Clean Girl" pinks to moody, grunge-inspired deep reds and purples.

3. "Butter Skin": Not "glass" (too wet), not "matte" (too dry). A satin, blurred finish that looks expensive.

4. "Bio-hacking Beauty": Skincare infused with adaptogens, mushrooms, and longevity-focused ingredients.

5. "Micro-splicing": The trend of "duping" high-end professional treatments (lash lifts, brow lamination) with at-home drugstore products.

UGC MARKETING MUSIC - www.coffeebarroasters.com

Leadership overhang: Reuters/FT report JAB-driven leadership shake-up; CEO Sue Nabi and Chair Peter Harf may exit; Gucci license loss in 2028 also flagged.

Need a quick playbook - connect on www.DIVIDOND.com "PLAYBOOK" to get this guide for free www.algocontentseo.com