Disclaimer: I own shares in $GOOG and am quite fond of them, rather like one’s attachment to a reliable brolly on a rainy day. This essay represents my personal musings and should be treated with the same level of professional financial authority as advice from your neighbour’s cat. I write primarily to organise my own thoughts and investment thesis, a bit of mental tidying, if you will. Any investment decisions you make after reading this are entirely your own responsibility, and I cannot be...

Disclaimer: I own shares in $GOOG and am quite fond of them, rather like one’s attachment to a reliable brolly on a rainy day. This essay represents my personal musings and should be treated with the same level of professional financial authority as advice from your neighbour’s cat. I write primarily to organise my own thoughts and investment thesis, a bit of mental tidying, if you will. Any investment decisions you make after reading this are entirely your own responsibility, and I cannot be...

The Return of the Dire Wolf: If you thought Game of Thrones was pure fantasy, think again: the dire wolf, that hulking Ice Age predator, has just padded its way out of extinction and into the 21st century, courtesy of some very clever humans with a penchant for Jurassic Park-level tinkering and, presumably, a good sense of humour about meddling with nature. The brains behind this resurrection are the boffins at Colossal Biosciences, who, armed with ancient DNA from a 13,000-year-old tooth and...

The Return of the Dire Wolf: If you thought Game of Thrones was pure fantasy, think again: the dire wolf, that hulking Ice Age predator, has just padded its way out of extinction and into the 21st century, courtesy of some very clever humans with a penchant for Jurassic Park-level tinkering and, presumably, a good sense of humour about meddling with nature. The brains behind this resurrection are the boffins at Colossal Biosciences, who, armed with ancient DNA from a 13,000-year-old tooth and...

Read my Short Dive on the Magnificent SevenOn 8 April 2025, I attended RW Capital’s “Global Macro Outlook 2025” at the Chartered Accountants Hall, One Moorgate Place, London. The talk was organised by the Society of Technical Analysts. It was a thought-provoking presentation from two seasoned market veterans, Robin Griffiths and Ron William. With decades of experience and a deep understanding of economic cycles, they painted a sobering but insightful picture of what lies ahead. In this articl...

Read my Short Dive on the Magnificent SevenOn 8 April 2025, I attended RW Capital’s “Global Macro Outlook 2025” at the Chartered Accountants Hall, One Moorgate Place, London. The talk was organised by the Society of Technical Analysts. It was a thought-provoking presentation from two seasoned market veterans, Robin Griffiths and Ron William. With decades of experience and a deep understanding of economic cycles, they painted a sobering but insightful picture of what lies ahead. In this articl...

Introduction: Beyond the Business Cycle – Understanding the Long Wave In the world of investment, much attention is paid to the familiar rhythm of the business cycle – the expansions and contractions that typically play out over a handful of years. However, beneath these shorter-term fluctuations, some economic historians and theorists posit the existence of much grander, multi-decade cycles that shape the very technological and economic foundations of society. These are the Kondratieff waves...

Introduction: Beyond the Business Cycle – Understanding the Long Wave In the world of investment, much attention is paid to the familiar rhythm of the business cycle – the expansions and contractions that typically play out over a handful of years. However, beneath these shorter-term fluctuations, some economic historians and theorists posit the existence of much grander, multi-decade cycles that shape the very technological and economic foundations of society. These are the Kondratieff waves...

Disclaimer: Views as Personal as My Tesla Portfolio For clarity’s sake: I am a Tesla shareholder, and what you read reflects my personal analysis and perspective-not financial advice. I write these pieces to sharpen my own investment thesis, much like how one might test drive a Model S before committing to the purchase. My observations, while thoughtfully considered, should be taken with the same level of seriousness as Elon’s promises about delivery dates-entertaining, potentially insightful...

Disclaimer: Views as Personal as My Tesla Portfolio For clarity’s sake: I am a Tesla shareholder, and what you read reflects my personal analysis and perspective-not financial advice. I write these pieces to sharpen my own investment thesis, much like how one might test drive a Model S before committing to the purchase. My observations, while thoughtfully considered, should be taken with the same level of seriousness as Elon’s promises about delivery dates-entertaining, potentially insightful...

In a world where the financial landscape is constantly shifting, understanding the underlying forces that drive markets is more crucial than ever. Enter Raoul Pal, the renowned macro investor and founder of Real Vision, who, alongside leading business cycle analyst Julien Bittel, delivered a masterclass on his "Everything Code" framework. This multi-hour presentation, recorded on May 17, 2024, and published on May 24, 2024, is widely regarded as one of the most in-depth macroeconomic and inve...

In a world where the financial landscape is constantly shifting, understanding the underlying forces that drive markets is more crucial than ever. Enter Raoul Pal, the renowned macro investor and founder of Real Vision, who, alongside leading business cycle analyst Julien Bittel, delivered a masterclass on his "Everything Code" framework. This multi-hour presentation, recorded on May 17, 2024, and published on May 24, 2024, is widely regarded as one of the most in-depth macroeconomic and inve...

Introduction: The Medium-Term Investment Cycle Between the short, inventory-driven fluctuations of the Kitchin cycle and the multi-decade technological shifts of Kondratieff waves lies the economic rhythm most familiar to investors and policymakers: the Juglar cycle. Often referred to as the 'classic' business cycle, this medium-term wave, typically spanning 7 to 11 years, reflects the fundamental process of capital investment and renewal within an economy. Named after the French ec...

Introduction: The Medium-Term Investment Cycle Between the short, inventory-driven fluctuations of the Kitchin cycle and the multi-decade technological shifts of Kondratieff waves lies the economic rhythm most familiar to investors and policymakers: the Juglar cycle. Often referred to as the 'classic' business cycle, this medium-term wave, typically spanning 7 to 11 years, reflects the fundamental process of capital investment and renewal within an economy. Named after the French ec...

Three Key Takeaways The Kitchin Wave offers tactical clarity. Watch the short cycle to anticipate cyclical equity rotations and sector leadership changes. We’re likely in an early upswing now. Manufacturing is stabilising, inventories are lean, and restocking may provide a modest tailwind. Stay contrarian-smart. Maintain exposure to defensives and hedges — especially if the broader economy disappoints in 2025.Introduction: The Shortest Cycle and Its (Limited?) Relevance - Economic cycles don’...

Three Key Takeaways The Kitchin Wave offers tactical clarity. Watch the short cycle to anticipate cyclical equity rotations and sector leadership changes. We’re likely in an early upswing now. Manufacturing is stabilising, inventories are lean, and restocking may provide a modest tailwind. Stay contrarian-smart. Maintain exposure to defensives and hedges — especially if the broader economy disappoints in 2025.Introduction: The Shortest Cycle and Its (Limited?) Relevance - Economic cycles don’...

Commodity Trading Powerhouses: Expanding Influence and Investment Implications - The Financial Times. The recent expansion of major commodity trading houses presents significant shifts in global supply chain control and investment landscapes. These developments have far-reaching implications for geopolitical power dynamics and retail investment opportunities. Commodity traders have recorded approximately $95 billion in gross profits for 2023 - 2.5x higher than pre-2020 averages, despite falli...

Commodity Trading Powerhouses: Expanding Influence and Investment Implications - The Financial Times. The recent expansion of major commodity trading houses presents significant shifts in global supply chain control and investment landscapes. These developments have far-reaching implications for geopolitical power dynamics and retail investment opportunities. Commodity traders have recorded approximately $95 billion in gross profits for 2023 - 2.5x higher than pre-2020 averages, despite falli...

Tesla’s FSD Milestone at Giga Texas: A Glimpse into the Future of Autonomy Tesla has taken a bold step forward in autonomous driving, with its Giga Texas factory now using Full Self-Driving (FSD) technology to transport cars from production lines to logistics lots. According to a post by Mario Nawfal on X, dated April 13, 2025, Tesla has logged over 50,000 driverless miles across its Texas and California factories. The FSD system navigates a challenging 1.4-mile route, interacting with pedest...

Tesla’s FSD Milestone at Giga Texas: A Glimpse into the Future of Autonomy Tesla has taken a bold step forward in autonomous driving, with its Giga Texas factory now using Full Self-Driving (FSD) technology to transport cars from production lines to logistics lots. According to a post by Mario Nawfal on X, dated April 13, 2025, Tesla has logged over 50,000 driverless miles across its Texas and California factories. The FSD system navigates a challenging 1.4-mile route, interacting with pedest...