Polymarket is a decentralized information platform that allows users to buy and sell shares tied to the outcome of future events. The share price reflects the market's perceived probability of that event occurring (e.g., a share priced at $0.75 means the market estimates the event's probability at 75%).
Technology: The platform operates on the Ethereum/Polygon blockchain, ensuring transparency and automated settlement (payouts) via smart contracts.
Markets: The platform is known for its wide range of markets: from politics (US elections), macroeconomics, and crypto events to pop culture and sports.
2025 was a time of explosive growth and institutional recognition for Polymarket:
Valuation and Funding: The platform attracted significant investment, including a reported $2 billion from Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), the parent company of the NYSE. Polymarket's valuation was reportedly discussed in the range of $9–15 billion by the end of 2025.
Trading Volumes: Polymarket demonstrated impressive growth. In October 2025, trading volume exceeded $3 billion (compared to approximately $4.4 billion for competitor Kalshi). Overall, Polymarket's cumulative trading volume over three years reached about $25.9 billion, making it one of the most active platforms in the sector.
Partnerships: The platform integrated with major wallets, such as MetaMask, significantly boosting accessibility for crypto users.
This is the most critical turning point for Polymarket in 2025:
CFTC Approval: After restricting access to U.S. users in 2022 due to registration issues, Polymarket received approval from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) for regulated operation in the United States in late 2025.
Operating Model: The return to the U.S. market is occurring through licensed intermediaries (brokerage firms) rather than direct wallet connections, as before. This allows Polymarket to operate legally and attract larger, regulated capital.
"Whale" Influence Risk: Some users and critics argue that markets on the platform can be susceptible to manipulation by large players ("whales"), who might programmatically influence prices or the settlement process (via the oracle system, such as UMA).
Allegations of Artificial Volume: Research, for instance from Columbia University, suggests that up to 25% of Polymarket's trading volume over the last three years may have been artificial (bot-generated), although this figure significantly decreased in 2025.
Competition with Users: There have been reports that Polymarket has started to form an internal trading desk to provide liquidity, potentially placing it in direct competition with its own users.
Polymarket is a high-risk, high-reward market within the DeFi space. It is a leader in the decentralized segment, moving to the next level thanks to recent CFTC approval and massive investment.
Investing in Polymarket markets requires not only an understanding of event probabilities but also knowledge of crypto market mechanics, oracle systems, and liquidity risks in a decentralized environment.
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