"True safety is not about predicting the future, but designing a structure that can survive no matter what the future holds." —— Safe Haven: Investing for Financial Storms by Mark Spitznagel

If you take too much risk, it will likely cost you wealth over time. And at the same time, if you don't take enough risk, it will also likely cost you wealth over time.

Mark Spitznagel is one of the most famous hedge fund managers on Wall Street and also a partner of Nassim Taleb (the author of The Black Swan and Antifragile). The fund he founded, Universa Investments, is one of the few in the world that truly focuses on "tail risk hedging." It made a fortune in both 2008 and 2020. (He is known as the "King of Black Swans" in the financial world.)

The core of this book is: how to construct a portfolio (Safe Haven Portfolio) that can still protect the principal in extreme events.

Introduction: We Are Approaching the Next Big Crack

History may not repeat itself, but it does rhyme.

Today in 2025, we stand at a paradoxical point in time: the US stock market keeps hitting new highs, but long-term bond yields are above 4.5%; the US dollar is strong, yet consumption is sluggish; AI is causing a capital frenzy, while the world is falling into fragmentation and the risk of war; pumpfun has just been banned by x and silenced, while tron has ridden the president's big ship to NASDAQ...

Israel and Iran have just finished a round of drone warfare; India and Pakistan are increasing troops on the border; Russia's Black Sea Fleet has been bombed back, and Ukraine's Air Force has been authorized by the West to strike deep into Russian territory; in the United States, Trump's "madness" may make a comeback, and the era of tariffs and quantitative easing may return.

I. The Ultimate Truth of Wealth in a Chaotic World: It's Not About Earning the Most, But About Being Able to Afford to Lose

Mark Spitznagel, the author of Safe Haven, has a very unique position in the financial world. He is neither a slow and steady compound interest type like Buffett, nor a speculator like Soros.

He only does one thing: design a portfolio that can survive in a "black swan event."

This may sound ordinary, but it is an extremely rare wisdom—especially in today's world where everyone is talking about "growth," "innovation," and "AI." He puts forward a harsh but true fact in the book:

His famous saying: "What truly determines your wealth destiny is not the average rate of return, but whether you can avoid a 'zeroing out' moment."

He uses mathematics and history to prove: even if a portfolio earns 15% every year, just one - 80% black swan event will make it never recover. There is no such thing as a risk-free asset, only an investment structure that can afford to lose.

It's not about holding a "gold" or "bitcoin," but building a combination structure that can survive the storm.

Compound interest is not broken in growth, but in disaster.

II. Five Lifesaving Investment Rules from Safe Haven

In this book, Spitznagel not only criticizes the blind spots of traditional asset allocation, but also proposes five very hard-core and applicable risk-avoidance strategies for "extreme times":

1. Safe Assets ≠ Low-Volatility Assets

Many people misunderstand "stability" as "safety."

In 2008, gold and bonds both fell at one point, while the only thing that rose was - long-term deep out-of-the-money put options (SPX PUT).

The real safe-haven asset is one that can explode in the opposite direction in a systemic collapse. The real "safe harbor" asset is the one that rises when everything is going wrong.

1. When the Black Swan Comes, the Magic of "Compound Interest" Will Backfire on You

A - 50% loss requires a + 100% gain to break even. But black swans are often not - 50%, but an instant zeroing out.

His conclusion is simple: you can't gamble on surviving, you have to design a structure to ensure survival.

"The compounding effect is the most destructive force in the universe." (A different way of thinking from Buffett)

1. Don't Predict the Future, But Prepare Structurally for the "Worst"

"You can't predict. You can only prepare."

"Prediction" is an illusion for most investors, while preparation is the real way to control risk.

You can't predict wars, financial crises, or changes in government - but you can allocate assets so that they won't "die" in any outcome.

1. Convex Payoff Structure Is the Real Risk-Avoidance Magic Weapon

The meaning of convex payoff structure is:

• Small losses or break-even in normal times

• Doubling or even multiplying by tens of times in extreme events

For example: VIX long, SPX deep put, gold forward call, US dollar/non-sovereign asset hedging positions

1. "Geographical Diversification + Custody Diversification" Is the Line Between Life and Death

Where you place your assets, who is the custodian, and whether you can control them - is far more important than you think - your geographical location determines whether your assets are yours when a crisis comes.

Don't custody in just one country, don't custody through banks only, and don't go all-in on system assets (such as domestic currency, domestic stocks, local real estate). Insurance does not exist in chaotic times.

In addition, the self-custody and convenience of crypto is also a good choice.

III. What Is the Structure of a "Safe Haven Portfolio"

The structure Spitznagel advocates is:

• 90–95%: Low-risk, stable compounding assets (such as short-term US Treasury bills, cash, basic dividend stocks)

• 5–10%: High-leverage "tail risk hedging" positions (such as VIX long, SPX forward put, gold/bitcoin backup)

Examples in the book:

• 80% invested in the S&P 500 and 20% in gold

• 50% in the S&P 500 and 50% in Trend-following CTAs

• 66% in the S&P 500 and 34% in long-term Treasuries

• 85% in the S&P 500 and 15% in Swiss Franc

This structure has average returns in normal times, but it explodes in black swans (for example, in March 2020, during the pandemic stock market crash, the Universa fund increased by 4000%).

Based on his articles and reports, his evaluations of different asset classes

The ultimate truth of wealth in a chaotic world: how to manage your position in the end times?

"The net portfolio effect – or the cost-effectiveness of a safe haven – is thus driven by how little of that safe haven is needed for a given level of risk mitigation."

IV. The "Black Swan Survival Portfolio" for 2025: What Should You Do?

A possible "tiered asset structure" in combination with the current risk environment

Layer 0: Healthy Body

No infectious diseases, no long-term illnesses, not too low body fat, develop exercise habits, cultivate a mobile body; be able to drive different types of transportation, know how to cook.

Layer 1: Systemic Risk-Resistant Assets (Self-Custodied Assets)

For survival when the system completely collapses

• Type: Physical gold (coins preferred)

• Suggested Allocation: 5–10%

• Characteristics: Not dependent on government recognition, can be used for "escape"

• Type: BTC (stored in cold wallets)

• Suggested Allocation: 5–10%

• Characteristics: Digital gold, can be carried globally but with regulatory risks

• Type: Foreign land/passport

• Suggested Allocation: 5–10%

• Characteristics: Can rebuild and transfer identity when necessary

Layer 2: Tail Risk Hedging Positions (High-Leverage Hedging Assets)

For skyrocketing in black swans to replenish the portfolio

• Type: SPX deep put

• Suggested Allocation: 1–2%

• Characteristics: Long-term options, maximum alpha source

• Type: VIX long

• Suggested Allocation: 1–3%

• Characteristics: High explosive power when market volatility surges

• Type: Gold call options

• Suggested Allocation: 1–2%

• Characteristics: Rise in the context of high inflation or war

Layer 3: Liquidity + Growth Assets (Normal Income Sources)

For stable living and cash flow when the economy doesn't collapse

• Type: Short-term US Treasury ETFs / Treasury money market funds

• Suggested Allocation: 20–30%

• Characteristics: Safe and stable, ensuring liquidity

• Type: Diversified global high-dividend stocks

• Suggested Allocation: 20–30%

• Characteristics: Income source, reducing the risk of a single country's explosion

• Type: Emerging market real estate + US dollar-denominated REITs

• Suggested Allocation: 5–10%

• Characteristics: Diversified cash flow

"In investing, good defense leads to good offense."

V. Conclusion: Everything May Collapse, But You Don't Have To

What Safe Haven really wants to tell us is:

You can't prevent wars, crashes, or revolutions - but you can design an asset structure in advance that won't be zeroed out in any situation.

"True safety is not about predicting the future, but designing a structure that can survive no matter what the future holds." —— Safe Haven: Investing for Financial Storms by Mark Spitznagel

If you take too much risk, it will likely cost you wealth over time. And at the same time, if you don't take enough risk, it will also likely cost you wealth over time.

Mark Spitznagel is one of the most famous hedge fund managers on Wall Street and also a partner of Nassim Taleb (the author of The Black Swan and Antifragile). The fund he founded, Universa Investments, is one of the few in the world that truly focuses on "tail risk hedging." It made a fortune in both 2008 and 2020. (He is known as the "King of Black Swans" in the financial world.)

The core of this book is: how to construct a portfolio (Safe Haven Portfolio) that can still protect the principal in extreme events.

Introduction: We Are Approaching the Next Big Crack

History may not repeat itself, but it does rhyme.

Today in 2025, we stand at a paradoxical point in time: the US stock market keeps hitting new highs, but long-term bond yields are above 4.5%; the US dollar is strong, yet consumption is sluggish; AI is causing a capital frenzy, while the world is falling into fragmentation and the risk of war; pumpfun has just been banned by x and silenced, while tron has ridden the president's big ship to NASDAQ...

Israel and Iran have just finished a round of drone warfare; India and Pakistan are increasing troops on the border; Russia's Black Sea Fleet has been bombed back, and Ukraine's Air Force has been authorized by the West to strike deep into Russian territory; in the United States, Trump's "madness" may make a comeback, and the era of tariffs and quantitative easing may return.

I. The Ultimate Truth of Wealth in a Chaotic World: It's Not About Earning the Most, But About Being Able to Afford to Lose

Mark Spitznagel, the author of Safe Haven, has a very unique position in the financial world. He is neither a slow and steady compound interest type like Buffett, nor a speculator like Soros.

He only does one thing: design a portfolio that can survive in a "black swan event."

This may sound ordinary, but it is an extremely rare wisdom—especially in today's world where everyone is talking about "growth," "innovation," and "AI." He puts forward a harsh but true fact in the book:

His famous saying: "What truly determines your wealth destiny is not the average rate of return, but whether you can avoid a 'zeroing out' moment."

He uses mathematics and history to prove: even if a portfolio earns 15% every year, just one - 80% black swan event will make it never recover. There is no such thing as a risk-free asset, only an investment structure that can afford to lose.

It's not about holding a "gold" or "bitcoin," but building a combination structure that can survive the storm.

Compound interest is not broken in growth, but in disaster.

II. Five Lifesaving Investment Rules from Safe Haven

In this book, Spitznagel not only criticizes the blind spots of traditional asset allocation, but also proposes five very hard-core and applicable risk-avoidance strategies for "extreme times":

1. Safe Assets ≠ Low-Volatility Assets

Many people misunderstand "stability" as "safety."

In 2008, gold and bonds both fell at one point, while the only thing that rose was - long-term deep out-of-the-money put options (SPX PUT).

The real safe-haven asset is one that can explode in the opposite direction in a systemic collapse. The real "safe harbor" asset is the one that rises when everything is going wrong.

1. When the Black Swan Comes, the Magic of "Compound Interest" Will Backfire on You

A - 50% loss requires a + 100% gain to break even. But black swans are often not - 50%, but an instant zeroing out.

His conclusion is simple: you can't gamble on surviving, you have to design a structure to ensure survival.

"The compounding effect is the most destructive force in the universe." (A different way of thinking from Buffett)

1. Don't Predict the Future, But Prepare Structurally for the "Worst"

"You can't predict. You can only prepare."

"Prediction" is an illusion for most investors, while preparation is the real way to control risk.

You can't predict wars, financial crises, or changes in government - but you can allocate assets so that they won't "die" in any outcome.

1. Convex Payoff Structure Is the Real Risk-Avoidance Magic Weapon

The meaning of convex payoff structure is:

• Small losses or break-even in normal times

• Doubling or even multiplying by tens of times in extreme events

For example: VIX long, SPX deep put, gold forward call, US dollar/non-sovereign asset hedging positions

1. "Geographical Diversification + Custody Diversification" Is the Line Between Life and Death

Where you place your assets, who is the custodian, and whether you can control them - is far more important than you think - your geographical location determines whether your assets are yours when a crisis comes.

Don't custody in just one country, don't custody through banks only, and don't go all-in on system assets (such as domestic currency, domestic stocks, local real estate). Insurance does not exist in chaotic times.

In addition, the self-custody and convenience of crypto is also a good choice.

III. What Is the Structure of a "Safe Haven Portfolio"

The structure Spitznagel advocates is:

• 90–95%: Low-risk, stable compounding assets (such as short-term US Treasury bills, cash, basic dividend stocks)

• 5–10%: High-leverage "tail risk hedging" positions (such as VIX long, SPX forward put, gold/bitcoin backup)

Examples in the book:

• 80% invested in the S&P 500 and 20% in gold

• 50% in the S&P 500 and 50% in Trend-following CTAs

• 66% in the S&P 500 and 34% in long-term Treasuries

• 85% in the S&P 500 and 15% in Swiss Franc

This structure has average returns in normal times, but it explodes in black swans (for example, in March 2020, during the pandemic stock market crash, the Universa fund increased by 4000%).

Based on his articles and reports, his evaluations of different asset classes

The ultimate truth of wealth in a chaotic world: how to manage your position in the end times?

"The net portfolio effect – or the cost-effectiveness of a safe haven – is thus driven by how little of that safe haven is needed for a given level of risk mitigation."

IV. The "Black Swan Survival Portfolio" for 2025: What Should You Do?

A possible "tiered asset structure" in combination with the current risk environment

Layer 0: Healthy Body

No infectious diseases, no long-term illnesses, not too low body fat, develop exercise habits, cultivate a mobile body; be able to drive different types of transportation, know how to cook.

Layer 1: Systemic Risk-Resistant Assets (Self-Custodied Assets)

For survival when the system completely collapses

• Type: Physical gold (coins preferred)

• Suggested Allocation: 5–10%

• Characteristics: Not dependent on government recognition, can be used for "escape"

• Type: BTC (stored in cold wallets)

• Suggested Allocation: 5–10%

• Characteristics: Digital gold, can be carried globally but with regulatory risks

• Type: Foreign land/passport

• Suggested Allocation: 5–10%

• Characteristics: Can rebuild and transfer identity when necessary

Layer 2: Tail Risk Hedging Positions (High-Leverage Hedging Assets)

For skyrocketing in black swans to replenish the portfolio

• Type: SPX deep put

• Suggested Allocation: 1–2%

• Characteristics: Long-term options, maximum alpha source

• Type: VIX long

• Suggested Allocation: 1–3%

• Characteristics: High explosive power when market volatility surges

• Type: Gold call options

• Suggested Allocation: 1–2%

• Characteristics: Rise in the context of high inflation or war

Layer 3: Liquidity + Growth Assets (Normal Income Sources)

For stable living and cash flow when the economy doesn't collapse

• Type: Short-term US Treasury ETFs / Treasury money market funds

• Suggested Allocation: 20–30%

• Characteristics: Safe and stable, ensuring liquidity

• Type: Diversified global high-dividend stocks

• Suggested Allocation: 20–30%

• Characteristics: Income source, reducing the risk of a single country's explosion

• Type: Emerging market real estate + US dollar-denominated REITs

• Suggested Allocation: 5–10%

• Characteristics: Diversified cash flow

"In investing, good defense leads to good offense."

V. Conclusion: Everything May Collapse, But You Don't Have To

What Safe Haven really wants to tell us is:

You can't prevent wars, crashes, or revolutions - but you can design an asset structure in advance that won't be zeroed out in any situation.