Hi friends,
Are you locked in to our livestream? We’ll be streaming later today on X.
As you’d imagine, today's email contains war. This is a crypto newsletter so we'll keep our lens there but, probably needless to say, the market impact feels inconsequential relative to what's happening in the world right now.
Writer: Deana
Editor: Miranda
We ❤ Cash App.
Ceasefire Rally? BTC ripped past $71K on Tuesday after the NYT reported that Iranian intelligence operatives had signaled openness to talks with the CIA. However, Iran's Supreme National Security Council denied the whole thing, and Trump posted "They want to talk. I said 'Too Late!'" So…no.
What's interesting is the decoupling. Bitcoin fell into the weekend with everything else, but flipped green Monday while equities opened red. BTC is acting more like gold than a tech stock WHICH is the thesis people have been pitching for years, finally showing up at the worst possible moment.
Michael Saylor is still buying.
Let’s Not. Polymarket posted a 22% probability of a nuclear weapon being detonated by year-end, drew $838K in volume, then quietly pulled the whole thing down after everyone was like…what the f*ck?
The nuclear market is only the latest in a string of grim controversies for prediction markets. In the hours before the US and Israel struck Iran, 150+ accounts placed four-figure bets correctly predicting a strike, including six suspected insiders who netted $1.2M collectively. Two Israelis were charged for using classified military intel to place wagers. Kalshi invoked a "death carveout" to settle a $54M market on Khamenei. The CFTC is now advancing formal rulemaking, and over a dozen countries have banned prediction markets outright. A new kind of war profiteering is emerging.
Let’s stick to betting on stuff like this instead, shall we?
Quick Hits.
Two AIs accidentally talked to each other for 2 hours.
A new report shows STEEP traffic declines for digital media publications.
Bryan Johnson aka “Don’t Die” at Paris Fashion Week.
Can someone do a longform podcast about the Red Lobster turnaround story?
“The most comprehensive archive of Chinese cigarettes to exist on the western net.”
If you liked this, send it to a friend. ILY.
Hi friends,
Are you locked in to our livestream? We’ll be streaming later today on X.
As you’d imagine, today's email contains war. This is a crypto newsletter so we'll keep our lens there but, probably needless to say, the market impact feels inconsequential relative to what's happening in the world right now.
Writer: Deana
Editor: Miranda
We ❤ Cash App.
Ceasefire Rally? BTC ripped past $71K on Tuesday after the NYT reported that Iranian intelligence operatives had signaled openness to talks with the CIA. However, Iran's Supreme National Security Council denied the whole thing, and Trump posted "They want to talk. I said 'Too Late!'" So…no.
What's interesting is the decoupling. Bitcoin fell into the weekend with everything else, but flipped green Monday while equities opened red. BTC is acting more like gold than a tech stock WHICH is the thesis people have been pitching for years, finally showing up at the worst possible moment.
Michael Saylor is still buying.
Let’s Not. Polymarket posted a 22% probability of a nuclear weapon being detonated by year-end, drew $838K in volume, then quietly pulled the whole thing down after everyone was like…what the f*ck?
The nuclear market is only the latest in a string of grim controversies for prediction markets. In the hours before the US and Israel struck Iran, 150+ accounts placed four-figure bets correctly predicting a strike, including six suspected insiders who netted $1.2M collectively. Two Israelis were charged for using classified military intel to place wagers. Kalshi invoked a "death carveout" to settle a $54M market on Khamenei. The CFTC is now advancing formal rulemaking, and over a dozen countries have banned prediction markets outright. A new kind of war profiteering is emerging.
Let’s stick to betting on stuff like this instead, shall we?
Quick Hits.
Two AIs accidentally talked to each other for 2 hours.
A new report shows STEEP traffic declines for digital media publications.
Bryan Johnson aka “Don’t Die” at Paris Fashion Week.
Can someone do a longform podcast about the Red Lobster turnaround story?
“The most comprehensive archive of Chinese cigarettes to exist on the western net.”
If you liked this, send it to a friend. ILY.
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