The turn of the calendar into 2026 brought with it Comma Partners’ first anniversary. Below are some excerpts from our annual letter that we sent to our investors yesterday - reflections on year one.
Frontiers are messy and uncomfortable by definition. If they weren’t, everyone would go - and they’d cease to be frontiers.
We still believe in the opportunity ahead.
On January 23rd, Comma Partners turned 1.
In earnest, the fund was born several months earlier, and this journey to the heart of Comma’s broader mission - to venture to the frontiers of technology and our humanity, in partnership with those also called to the adventure - began several years before that.
This milestone, in addition to the turn of the calendar into the new year, presents an opportunity to reflect on the path that has brought us here, as well as re-orient our compass as we plot our course for the road ahead.
We articulated who we are. Why we’re here. What we do.
We painted our vision of the future that we believe in and want to see in the world. We shaped our strategy for investing behind this future over the long-term.
We set our aim to be the most trusted partner investing at the frontiers of both our technology and humanity. To compound relationships, wisdom, and capital - for life.
We welcomed our first partners - and outside capital - into Comma. We set the rhythm of systems and processes with our supporting teams to get the operational trains running. We put our thesis and investing frameworks into full contact with the world.
We built foundations for the years ahead.
We embarked on our journey in 2025. This first chapter is now written.
The numbers are difficult - crypto struggled in 2025. And yet - the nature of an adventure is that not only do we advance - we also transform. The journey works on us as much as we work on it.
Throughout the year, we fielded feedback from the market, from our peers, from our partners, and from advisors.
We learned, and refined our foundations along the way.
The version of Comma - and myself, for that matter - that begins our next chapter is one with greater clarity. One that’s more anchored to what matters at the core of who and what we’re becoming.
My aim: to be as full contact with life as I can muster. Because it’s this full contact that sands and chisels away what separates us from those essential human elements - those pearly, effervescent sources of vitality and meaning that remain, and serve to guide us in the end. And I believe that a world with more access to these core elements is a better world.
I’m finding that in sitting down to write about the last year for Comma, I’m writing a lot about myself. That’s because our years were intertwined - and in exploring how this 2025 chapter has shaped me, I realize that Comma is going through a similar process of becoming. We’re taking the chisel and some sandpaper to get to Comma’s core as well.
In 2025, we set the direction. We began and built foundations. We learned and refined our foundations.
And we transformed.
We see a world where some of the most formative technological innovations in our history are coordination technologies.
Innovations like language, writing, money, legal codes, democracy, capitalism, the limited liability company, the printing press, railroads, the telegraph, the internet - to name a few - expanded the trajectory and possibilities of humanity in a continual process of progress.
At its core, crypto is a coordination technology. And we believe that crypto is another one of these paradigm-shifting forces - one that will touch many parts of our world, from community and culture to capital.
Crypto gives us new tools to coordinate human, financial, and technological capital more effectively - enabling humans to do what we do best: imagine and paint the vision of a better future, muster resources behind that vision, and act to make it real. By reducing the friction of coordination, crypto amplifies the impact of harnessing all that’s necessary to build together. It blows open the surface area of what’s possible.
And it does so while simultaneously promoting values that are forces for good - freedom, openness, decentralization, sovereignty, dignity, meritocracy.
These world-changing outcomes don’t just happen overnight. This vision demands a multi-year, multi-decade time horizon.
This long gaze doesn’t just guide where we’re going - it also guides how we respond to the inevitable turbulence along the way.
It is this vision, and this time horizon, that inspire the work we do at Comma.
We believe crypto is a generational opportunity, at the intersection of two massive waves: revolutionary coordination technology colliding with a macroeconomic endgame demanding liquidity and monetary debasement.
We believe this opportunity has $100 trillion at stake over the coming decades. We are still very early.
Further, we believe crypto is much more than “just” fintech - as many have resorted to stating over the last year. We believe that, much like the internet went, crypto’s application layer will thrive.
We believe that the lion’s share of the value of the $100 trillion crypto opportunity will be created and captured by products built on top of crypto infrastructure.
We live in a world awash with unsound monetary and fiscal policy. Exorbitant spending fuels exorbitant borrowing, which fuels exorbitant money printing, all exacerbated by demographic headwinds.
In the long-term, technological innovation is our way out. All the while, however, the money will keep printing. Crypto - a neutral, independent, and non-sovereign system and innovation - is ever more valuable in such a world.
We have the massive benefit, unique to crypto, of being able to own a portfolio of winners across categories and sizes (from pre-seed to mature assets) in a fully-liquid portfolio.
The nature of the collision of an emerging technology with an increasingly noisy macro backdrop in a liquid market is that volatility is made fully visible. Volatility is the cost of this opportunity in front of us.
This volatility pulls most people from the long-term into the short-term, like moths to a flame. This is exactly why we ground ourselves in the long-term trend that we’re here to ride.
We are investing in this future, over the long-term.
This is the wellspring of the patience we draw on to stay focused on the signal (the trend) in the midst of the noise (the chop).
I said that my year and Comma’s year were intertwined. In some sense, Comma is an extension of me, but with a key difference: Comma is shaped by you as well.
Comma doesn’t truly exist without you. We are partners in this journey.
The first thing I want to say is that I’m deeply grateful that you’re part of this with me. It’s an honor.
The second thing is that as I read what I’ve just written, I have this creeping sense that much of this sounds quite cliché. Partnership. Gratitude. Honor. Transformation. Words like these get abused until they sound hollow. But I can assure you that they are not hollow for me.
Quite the contrary, these are the themes and sentiments that remain - the core of what makes doing this with you so meaningful. I hope that by sharing a window into my experience of walking alongside you, you feel some of the aliveness and sense of direction that I feel.
To state another cliché, trust is earned. Based solely on our returns this year, we have a ways to go. But throughout, I worked to lead with transparency. With honest communication when the news was less-than-ideal. With the work we’ve done to improve our thesis, strategy, and systems. With the changes to our fee structure to maximize alignment.
You have joined me on a journey to the frontier. Frontiers are messy and uncomfortable by definition. If they weren’t, everyone would go - and they’d cease to be frontiers.
The discomfort of this past year was real. But just as real is the opportunity that brought us here.
My commitment to this work is steadfast - for the long haul, alongside you.
Our 2025 chapter is written.
We set our direction. We began and built foundations. We transformed.
We got clearer, and more focused on our vision of the future - as well as our strategy for investing behind this future - over the long-term.
Focus. Simplicity. Momentum. Craft.
As we enter 2026, these are the words guiding us.
A friend brought to my attention the fact that this month, we tip into a new Chinese zodiac year - from the year of the snake (transformation, strategy, and calculated movement) to the year of the horse (energy, independence, and disruption).
We’re ready for it.
Our next chapter has just begun. I’m thrilled for what’s to come, and I’m honored to get the opportunity to write it with you.
Here’s to 2026 and beyond.
Onward.
To the frontier.
With gratitude,
Devin
To fully understand the story of last year, we need to look back to late 2024.
President Trump’s election victory triggered a rapid re-rating of crypto assets as the market digested expectations of a pro-crypto administration. Bitcoin and Solana performed particularly strongly, and select alts outperformed both.
Comma benefited from this alt strength. We were at our max risk allocation given the very supportive forward-looking macro and policy backdrop.
This was the playbook working: macro tailwinds with dispersion favoring alts.
Then the tone shifted.
As the administration articulated a policy strategy that was undeniably austere and protectionist (touting that it was “Main Street’s turn”), the market digested fears of fiscal austerity and burdensome tariffs.
This crescendoed to April 2nd - Liberation Day - with the announcement of a surprisingly heavy-handed tariff plan, triggering the third-largest two-day equity sell-off since 2000. The Fear & Greed Index hit 4 out of 100 - extreme capitulation.
The same dynamics that helped us earlier now hurt us. In this regime of extreme panic, crypto got punished. Bitcoin held up relatively well, dropping (-27%) vs. the S&P’s (-18%) and the NASDAQ’s (-22%) respectively. But crypto’s long tail got hit hard. Dispersion compressed, and our allocation to alts fell further.
This was a crucible moment: hold through the fear or panic-sell and lock in losses?
We stayed invested based on our long-term crypto and macro conviction. We opted to stick with our strategy - the combination of fundamental analysis (own good assets, both blue chips and alts) and macro analysis (decipher the puzzle of economic health and structural risks). We abstained from acting suddenly in response to this bout of idiosyncratic volatility.
On April 9th, the administration shifted course, announcing an initial 90-day pause alongside an expressed willingness to negotiate in their work to re-structure the global economic order.
Risk soared once again, and our liquid venture positions that had crushed us on the way down worked as intended as dispersion returned and liquidity moved out the risk curve into higher-beta assets.
Then, markets turned once more.
Renewed tariff threats - this time directed at China in response to an announced expansion of their export controls on rare earth elements - sparked another selloff. Risk assets fell steeply. Crypto witnessed one of its most dramatic single-day shocks in its history.
Markets suffered a flash crash, exacerbated by a cascade of leverage liquidations - the largest in crypto history, with almost $20B of liquidations in 24 hours. Several major crypto exchanges and market makers suffered malfunctions in their trading modules (what Binance described as “some technical glitches”) that caused pricing feeds to de-peg from actual market prices, resulting in disorderly market functioning throughout these sudden price movements.
Sentiment has remained in the dumps since. Market structure feels fractured. Many suspect that sizable exchanges and market makers took large hits, resulting in material and sustained selling to bolster operational liquidity, continuing to weigh down prices.
Once again, we stuck with our strategy. Our long-term thesis remains intact - even with the world around it experiencing more volatility than anticipated.
One bright spot from the chaos: while Binance experienced “technical glitches” that caused pricing feeds to de-peg and worsened the cascade, the major decentralized protocols - exchanges, lending platforms, stablecoin systems - were fully functional throughout. In our view, this is one of the strongest proof points yet for crypto infrastructure, stress-tested under extreme conditions. It reinforces our conviction in the application layer.
The crypto market really is a tale of two stories: Bitcoin and everything else. Our thesis is built on conviction in the application layer - which for all intents and purposes means alts.
Our conviction in the long-term thesis remains intact.
Geopolitics has been the dominant risk factor. Even when we get the broader macro call right, a single headline can spark the fire of market corrections. In a world more volatile than ever, with a President more volatile than ever, this idiosyncratic risk is real and difficult to model.
Beyond geopolitics, crypto faced several structural headwinds in 2025. Lots of early crypto holders who sat on massive holdings over the past decade took advantage of liquidity that was now deep enough (with ETFs and massive institutions now embedded into crypto markets) to realize their gains. Reaching key psychological price levels - like $100K Bitcoin - exacerbated this. Token unlock schedules from last cycle’s crypto projects created persistent selling pressure. Still-elevated rates continued to keep friction working against long-duration risk assets.
Narratives also shifted. Gold captured the debasement trade, with sovereigns’ gold hoarding further fueled by a global shift away from the American dollar complex as the US firmly stepped into a process of decoupling from the globalist economic paradigm. And AI captured the growth trade.
This year prompted intense reflection. Is the strategy still intact? Is any part invalidated? What should be done differently? How did we execute against the plan? What can we learn going forward?
The answers shaped a set of meaningful changes to how we operate.
We aim to be as fully-aligned as possible, across all parts of Comma.
Investors can own Bitcoin passively today, for near-zero cost. We’re here because we believe our thesis and frameworks can compound better than simply holding Bitcoin over the long-term - through two key strategic components:
Owning key non-Bitcoin alts that represent highly asymmetric opportunity in crypto’s generational technological revolution.
Reducing volatility drag by owning a portfolio of hedges to protect against prolonged bear markets, informed by our macro framework.
We updated our fee structure to better reflect this mandate and align incentives.
Under our new structure, we earn no performance fees unless we accomplish our mandate.
In our view, this is how a fund should be run.
We are excited about this deeper alignment - philosophical and practical - across all parts of Comma. We believe this alignment is core to being world-class (as is our aim).
One of our key takeaways from this year is that we’re even earlier than we thought when we embarked. This means two things - one that stings, and one silver lining.
I often rely on an analogy to the evolution of the internet - the preceding networked technology wave.
When we launched in late 2024, I believed we were somewhere around 2000 in internet terms - with infrastructure built, and exploding applications on the horizon. But in 2000, we were still several years away from those applications that are synonymous with the application layer of the internet - YouTube, Facebook, the iPhone, etc.
What unlocked the internet’s application layer explosion? Broadband.
Fast, cheap, high-throughput networks that could support richer products and experiences, like photo, video, and social networking. It wasn’t until bandwidth was cheap and abundant that we saw the Cambrian explosion of the internet as we know it.
We believe crypto is just now at its broadband moment. Reliably negligible blockchain costs and near-instant speeds - necessary for richer products and experiences - only became a reality in the last couple of years. We’re now at the point where the infrastructure is finally mature enough to support our application layer thesis.
The market is still yet to re-rate to reflect the value of this opportunity - it’s been slower than we expected.
But now the silver lining - it’s still ahead of us. We see a $100T opportunity. We’re at a crypto market cap of less than $3T today. That’s less than 3% of the way there. The price action of the last year has tested our patience - and reinforced our conviction that we’re squarely in a multi-year, multi-decade accumulation window.
And while the internet’s application layer took years to fully materialize after broadband arrived, we believe crypto’s will compress that timeline. Each technology wave moves faster than the last - built on the shoulders of existing infrastructure, adopted by a population already networked and digitally native. We believe the path from today to crypto’s YouTubes, Facebooks, and iPhones is right around the corner.
The fact that crypto is so liquid - unlike investing in other burgeoning technologies - can drive intense short-term-ism. As a result, we believe that the oft-cited investing cliché that time horizon is one of the few lasting competitive advantages is even more powerful in crypto.
Our patience is being tested, and through this test, we’ve returned to our foundations - we’ve dropped deeper into our long time horizon.
Patience is uncomfortable, but we believe the opportunity on the other side is massive.
Comma’s differentiation lies in conviction in the asymmetric opportunity present in crypto’s application layer - identifying winners early, owning them through volatility, and capturing asymmetric upside when the market rotates. This is one of the sources of value we add beyond passive Bitcoin exposure.
We’re maintaining our ~30% alt allocation as our baseline. We’ll expand over time as the market matures, and may contract in risk-off regimes - but we will remain in the thesis that differentiates us.
In our view, the macro backdrop remains constructive. Despite poor performance last year, nothing has fundamentally changed to invalidate our long-term thesis. We need more time for it to play out.
What would invalidate our long-term thesis?
A continuation of this constructive macro regime, followed by a transition to a negative one, without the continuation of the crypto bull market (and higher prices) first. If macro stays constructive through this year and alts continue to underperform Bitcoin, we will revisit fundamental assumptions about the timing of crypto’s application layer value accrual.
The October 10th flash crash - with $20 billion of levered positions liquidated in 24 hours - further underscores our conviction in avoiding leverage.
With a decades-long opportunity like crypto in front of us, we remain steadfast in doing all we can to eliminate blow-up risk. Leverage adds considerably to that risk. Moments like we witnessed in October - where we continue to hear whispers of large names going extinct due to forced liquidations - are important reminders.
The thesis remains: crypto is a generational technology and a generational investment opportunity - particularly in the application layer. What’s changed is how we manage risk while this thesis plays out - more systematic execution with tighter discipline, and economics fully aligned to outperformance.
Our job is to learn the right lessons. To build an ever-improving system that compounds. And to ensure that when tailwinds return, we’re well-positioned with our sails at the ready.
Our base case for 2026 is that it becomes the year that we expected 2025 to be.
Despite facing structural headwinds in 2025, we see tailwinds building. Stablecoin market cap grew throughout 2025 even as prices fell. DeFi protocols worked seamlessly during October’s flash crash while centralized venues had malfunctions. Regulatory clarity is being cemented, with the GENIUS Act passed in July and the CLARITY Act in the Senate after passing in the House. And the infrastructure our thesis depends on - sub-penny fees, near-instant finality - is finally here.
At the same time, a plethora of macro signals are converging. Global liquidity continues to rise. The USD is down 10% from the beginning of 2025, Treasury yields are down more than 0.5%, and oil is down 20%, continuing to ease financial conditions.
Bitcoin - and crypto broadly - is the sole major risk asset not tracking this recovery.
We believe October 10th was a market structure break - the largest liquidation cascade in crypto history ($20B in 24 hours) - that sparked a deviation from the underlying trend, not a regime change. The macro signals point to dramatic recovery. Crypto prices reflect fear.
Importantly, alarm bells like credit spreads and bond volatility are calm. If recession were on the horizon, these alarm bells would be ringing. Real-time inflation measures like Truflation are falling, keeping the Fed engaged in their path towards more neutral (read: lower) rates and preserving the liquidity backdrop.
We see a structural setup heading into 2026 that is much better than the price action suggests.
Unless recession materializes - which is not our base case - the setup for 2026 is more attractive than it was entering 2025. Crypto-specific headwinds are priced in. Macro alignment is strengthening. The gap between price and fundamentals is wide. Either crypto knows something the rest of the market doesn’t, or there’s a gap that will slam closed.
Decision-making under uncertainty requires probabilistic views, not absolute ones. A summary of our current framework for 2026 is as follows, with a more comprehensive version included further below:
Bear case (20%): Recession, re-inflation, or further geopolitical chaos. Bitcoin $50K-$100K. Alts down more.
Base case (50%): Modest disinflation, stable conditions, no major shocks. Bitcoin $100K-$150K. Alts outperform.
Bull case (30%): Liquidity accelerates, USD weakens further, PMIs climb. Bitcoin $150K-$300K. Material alt season.
These frameworks guide positioning - and we’re skewed constructive.
USD strength/weakness
2Y Treasury yield
10Y real yield
Global liquidity
High-yield credit spreads
Geopolitical or economic policy shocks induce further fear and chaos, leading to a risk-off flight to safety.
Financial conditions tighten, driving liquidity contraction (USD strengthens, inflation accelerates, rates increase, QT/liquidity withdrawals return).
The real economy doesn’t accelerate (e.g., PMIs stay below 50 and/or contract).
Geopolitical or economic policy further stabilizes.
Financial conditions ease further, driving liquidity expansion (USD weakens, inflation approaches 2% target, rates fall, QE/liquidity injections accelerate).
The real economy accelerates (e.g., PMIs climb into the 50s/towards 60).
A material reversal of current trend across various parts of the economy and markets.
Macro: inflation returns, strong USD, rates rise, liquidity falls
Global geopolitical and economic policy chaos (repeat or escalation of 2025)
Re-inflation (inflation above 3%)
1 cut or less (Fed funds above 3.25%)
10-year yields rise (above 4.5)
Strong USD (DXY above 100)
No QE/return to QT
Liquidity contraction
Meager economic growth (GDP growth below 2%, PMI declines below 50)
Crypto: deeper bear market (Bitcoin flat-to-down, alts down more)
The bear market that some expect
Crypto market cap ~$1.5T-$3T
Bitcoin flat-to-down (~$50K-$100K)
Bitcoin dominance up (alts down more)
Consistent with the current status quo and consensus.
Macro: modest disinflation, stable USD & rates, modest liquidity increase
Relative geopolitical and economic stability (improvement over last year)
Modest disinflation (inflation between 2%-3%)
2 cuts (Fed funds to 3.0%-3.25%)
10-year yields stable (between 4.0%-4.5%)
Stable USD (DXY 95-100)
Modest QE
Modest liquidity growth
Modest economic growth (2% GDP growth, PMI between 50-55)
Crypto: more of the same (Bitcoin up modestly, alts up more)
More of the same
Crypto market cap ~$3T-$5T
Bitcoin up near ATHs (~$100K-$150K)
Bitcoin dominance down modestly (alts up more)
Key factors are already trending this direction (e.g., USD, disinflation, rate cuts, QT ending), but would require acceleration.
Macro: inflation at target, USD & rates continue declines, liquidity climbs
Geopolitical and economic progress and order (material improvement over last year)
Material disinflation (inflation at or below 2% target)
3 cuts or more (Fed funds below 3.0%)
10-year yields fall (below 4.0%)
Weak USD (DXY below 95)
QE
Material liquidity growth
Economic re-acceleration (GDP growth above 2.5%, PMI above 55)
Crypto: return to bull market (Bitcoin up big, alts up even bigger)
The true bull market we didn’t get in 2025
Crypto market cap ~$5T-$10T
Bitcoin new ATHs (~$150K-$300K)
Bitcoin dominance down materially (material alt outperformance)
The turn of the calendar into 2026 brought with it Comma Partners’ first anniversary. Below are some excerpts from our annual letter that we sent to our investors yesterday - reflections on year one.
Frontiers are messy and uncomfortable by definition. If they weren’t, everyone would go - and they’d cease to be frontiers.
We still believe in the opportunity ahead.
On January 23rd, Comma Partners turned 1.
In earnest, the fund was born several months earlier, and this journey to the heart of Comma’s broader mission - to venture to the frontiers of technology and our humanity, in partnership with those also called to the adventure - began several years before that.
This milestone, in addition to the turn of the calendar into the new year, presents an opportunity to reflect on the path that has brought us here, as well as re-orient our compass as we plot our course for the road ahead.
We articulated who we are. Why we’re here. What we do.
We painted our vision of the future that we believe in and want to see in the world. We shaped our strategy for investing behind this future over the long-term.
We set our aim to be the most trusted partner investing at the frontiers of both our technology and humanity. To compound relationships, wisdom, and capital - for life.
We welcomed our first partners - and outside capital - into Comma. We set the rhythm of systems and processes with our supporting teams to get the operational trains running. We put our thesis and investing frameworks into full contact with the world.
We built foundations for the years ahead.
We embarked on our journey in 2025. This first chapter is now written.
The numbers are difficult - crypto struggled in 2025. And yet - the nature of an adventure is that not only do we advance - we also transform. The journey works on us as much as we work on it.
Throughout the year, we fielded feedback from the market, from our peers, from our partners, and from advisors.
We learned, and refined our foundations along the way.
The version of Comma - and myself, for that matter - that begins our next chapter is one with greater clarity. One that’s more anchored to what matters at the core of who and what we’re becoming.
My aim: to be as full contact with life as I can muster. Because it’s this full contact that sands and chisels away what separates us from those essential human elements - those pearly, effervescent sources of vitality and meaning that remain, and serve to guide us in the end. And I believe that a world with more access to these core elements is a better world.
I’m finding that in sitting down to write about the last year for Comma, I’m writing a lot about myself. That’s because our years were intertwined - and in exploring how this 2025 chapter has shaped me, I realize that Comma is going through a similar process of becoming. We’re taking the chisel and some sandpaper to get to Comma’s core as well.
In 2025, we set the direction. We began and built foundations. We learned and refined our foundations.
And we transformed.
We see a world where some of the most formative technological innovations in our history are coordination technologies.
Innovations like language, writing, money, legal codes, democracy, capitalism, the limited liability company, the printing press, railroads, the telegraph, the internet - to name a few - expanded the trajectory and possibilities of humanity in a continual process of progress.
At its core, crypto is a coordination technology. And we believe that crypto is another one of these paradigm-shifting forces - one that will touch many parts of our world, from community and culture to capital.
Crypto gives us new tools to coordinate human, financial, and technological capital more effectively - enabling humans to do what we do best: imagine and paint the vision of a better future, muster resources behind that vision, and act to make it real. By reducing the friction of coordination, crypto amplifies the impact of harnessing all that’s necessary to build together. It blows open the surface area of what’s possible.
And it does so while simultaneously promoting values that are forces for good - freedom, openness, decentralization, sovereignty, dignity, meritocracy.
These world-changing outcomes don’t just happen overnight. This vision demands a multi-year, multi-decade time horizon.
This long gaze doesn’t just guide where we’re going - it also guides how we respond to the inevitable turbulence along the way.
It is this vision, and this time horizon, that inspire the work we do at Comma.
We believe crypto is a generational opportunity, at the intersection of two massive waves: revolutionary coordination technology colliding with a macroeconomic endgame demanding liquidity and monetary debasement.
We believe this opportunity has $100 trillion at stake over the coming decades. We are still very early.
Further, we believe crypto is much more than “just” fintech - as many have resorted to stating over the last year. We believe that, much like the internet went, crypto’s application layer will thrive.
We believe that the lion’s share of the value of the $100 trillion crypto opportunity will be created and captured by products built on top of crypto infrastructure.
We live in a world awash with unsound monetary and fiscal policy. Exorbitant spending fuels exorbitant borrowing, which fuels exorbitant money printing, all exacerbated by demographic headwinds.
In the long-term, technological innovation is our way out. All the while, however, the money will keep printing. Crypto - a neutral, independent, and non-sovereign system and innovation - is ever more valuable in such a world.
We have the massive benefit, unique to crypto, of being able to own a portfolio of winners across categories and sizes (from pre-seed to mature assets) in a fully-liquid portfolio.
The nature of the collision of an emerging technology with an increasingly noisy macro backdrop in a liquid market is that volatility is made fully visible. Volatility is the cost of this opportunity in front of us.
This volatility pulls most people from the long-term into the short-term, like moths to a flame. This is exactly why we ground ourselves in the long-term trend that we’re here to ride.
We are investing in this future, over the long-term.
This is the wellspring of the patience we draw on to stay focused on the signal (the trend) in the midst of the noise (the chop).
I said that my year and Comma’s year were intertwined. In some sense, Comma is an extension of me, but with a key difference: Comma is shaped by you as well.
Comma doesn’t truly exist without you. We are partners in this journey.
The first thing I want to say is that I’m deeply grateful that you’re part of this with me. It’s an honor.
The second thing is that as I read what I’ve just written, I have this creeping sense that much of this sounds quite cliché. Partnership. Gratitude. Honor. Transformation. Words like these get abused until they sound hollow. But I can assure you that they are not hollow for me.
Quite the contrary, these are the themes and sentiments that remain - the core of what makes doing this with you so meaningful. I hope that by sharing a window into my experience of walking alongside you, you feel some of the aliveness and sense of direction that I feel.
To state another cliché, trust is earned. Based solely on our returns this year, we have a ways to go. But throughout, I worked to lead with transparency. With honest communication when the news was less-than-ideal. With the work we’ve done to improve our thesis, strategy, and systems. With the changes to our fee structure to maximize alignment.
You have joined me on a journey to the frontier. Frontiers are messy and uncomfortable by definition. If they weren’t, everyone would go - and they’d cease to be frontiers.
The discomfort of this past year was real. But just as real is the opportunity that brought us here.
My commitment to this work is steadfast - for the long haul, alongside you.
Our 2025 chapter is written.
We set our direction. We began and built foundations. We transformed.
We got clearer, and more focused on our vision of the future - as well as our strategy for investing behind this future - over the long-term.
Focus. Simplicity. Momentum. Craft.
As we enter 2026, these are the words guiding us.
A friend brought to my attention the fact that this month, we tip into a new Chinese zodiac year - from the year of the snake (transformation, strategy, and calculated movement) to the year of the horse (energy, independence, and disruption).
We’re ready for it.
Our next chapter has just begun. I’m thrilled for what’s to come, and I’m honored to get the opportunity to write it with you.
Here’s to 2026 and beyond.
Onward.
To the frontier.
With gratitude,
Devin
To fully understand the story of last year, we need to look back to late 2024.
President Trump’s election victory triggered a rapid re-rating of crypto assets as the market digested expectations of a pro-crypto administration. Bitcoin and Solana performed particularly strongly, and select alts outperformed both.
Comma benefited from this alt strength. We were at our max risk allocation given the very supportive forward-looking macro and policy backdrop.
This was the playbook working: macro tailwinds with dispersion favoring alts.
Then the tone shifted.
As the administration articulated a policy strategy that was undeniably austere and protectionist (touting that it was “Main Street’s turn”), the market digested fears of fiscal austerity and burdensome tariffs.
This crescendoed to April 2nd - Liberation Day - with the announcement of a surprisingly heavy-handed tariff plan, triggering the third-largest two-day equity sell-off since 2000. The Fear & Greed Index hit 4 out of 100 - extreme capitulation.
The same dynamics that helped us earlier now hurt us. In this regime of extreme panic, crypto got punished. Bitcoin held up relatively well, dropping (-27%) vs. the S&P’s (-18%) and the NASDAQ’s (-22%) respectively. But crypto’s long tail got hit hard. Dispersion compressed, and our allocation to alts fell further.
This was a crucible moment: hold through the fear or panic-sell and lock in losses?
We stayed invested based on our long-term crypto and macro conviction. We opted to stick with our strategy - the combination of fundamental analysis (own good assets, both blue chips and alts) and macro analysis (decipher the puzzle of economic health and structural risks). We abstained from acting suddenly in response to this bout of idiosyncratic volatility.
On April 9th, the administration shifted course, announcing an initial 90-day pause alongside an expressed willingness to negotiate in their work to re-structure the global economic order.
Risk soared once again, and our liquid venture positions that had crushed us on the way down worked as intended as dispersion returned and liquidity moved out the risk curve into higher-beta assets.
Then, markets turned once more.
Renewed tariff threats - this time directed at China in response to an announced expansion of their export controls on rare earth elements - sparked another selloff. Risk assets fell steeply. Crypto witnessed one of its most dramatic single-day shocks in its history.
Markets suffered a flash crash, exacerbated by a cascade of leverage liquidations - the largest in crypto history, with almost $20B of liquidations in 24 hours. Several major crypto exchanges and market makers suffered malfunctions in their trading modules (what Binance described as “some technical glitches”) that caused pricing feeds to de-peg from actual market prices, resulting in disorderly market functioning throughout these sudden price movements.
Sentiment has remained in the dumps since. Market structure feels fractured. Many suspect that sizable exchanges and market makers took large hits, resulting in material and sustained selling to bolster operational liquidity, continuing to weigh down prices.
Once again, we stuck with our strategy. Our long-term thesis remains intact - even with the world around it experiencing more volatility than anticipated.
One bright spot from the chaos: while Binance experienced “technical glitches” that caused pricing feeds to de-peg and worsened the cascade, the major decentralized protocols - exchanges, lending platforms, stablecoin systems - were fully functional throughout. In our view, this is one of the strongest proof points yet for crypto infrastructure, stress-tested under extreme conditions. It reinforces our conviction in the application layer.
The crypto market really is a tale of two stories: Bitcoin and everything else. Our thesis is built on conviction in the application layer - which for all intents and purposes means alts.
Our conviction in the long-term thesis remains intact.
Geopolitics has been the dominant risk factor. Even when we get the broader macro call right, a single headline can spark the fire of market corrections. In a world more volatile than ever, with a President more volatile than ever, this idiosyncratic risk is real and difficult to model.
Beyond geopolitics, crypto faced several structural headwinds in 2025. Lots of early crypto holders who sat on massive holdings over the past decade took advantage of liquidity that was now deep enough (with ETFs and massive institutions now embedded into crypto markets) to realize their gains. Reaching key psychological price levels - like $100K Bitcoin - exacerbated this. Token unlock schedules from last cycle’s crypto projects created persistent selling pressure. Still-elevated rates continued to keep friction working against long-duration risk assets.
Narratives also shifted. Gold captured the debasement trade, with sovereigns’ gold hoarding further fueled by a global shift away from the American dollar complex as the US firmly stepped into a process of decoupling from the globalist economic paradigm. And AI captured the growth trade.
This year prompted intense reflection. Is the strategy still intact? Is any part invalidated? What should be done differently? How did we execute against the plan? What can we learn going forward?
The answers shaped a set of meaningful changes to how we operate.
We aim to be as fully-aligned as possible, across all parts of Comma.
Investors can own Bitcoin passively today, for near-zero cost. We’re here because we believe our thesis and frameworks can compound better than simply holding Bitcoin over the long-term - through two key strategic components:
Owning key non-Bitcoin alts that represent highly asymmetric opportunity in crypto’s generational technological revolution.
Reducing volatility drag by owning a portfolio of hedges to protect against prolonged bear markets, informed by our macro framework.
We updated our fee structure to better reflect this mandate and align incentives.
Under our new structure, we earn no performance fees unless we accomplish our mandate.
In our view, this is how a fund should be run.
We are excited about this deeper alignment - philosophical and practical - across all parts of Comma. We believe this alignment is core to being world-class (as is our aim).
One of our key takeaways from this year is that we’re even earlier than we thought when we embarked. This means two things - one that stings, and one silver lining.
I often rely on an analogy to the evolution of the internet - the preceding networked technology wave.
When we launched in late 2024, I believed we were somewhere around 2000 in internet terms - with infrastructure built, and exploding applications on the horizon. But in 2000, we were still several years away from those applications that are synonymous with the application layer of the internet - YouTube, Facebook, the iPhone, etc.
What unlocked the internet’s application layer explosion? Broadband.
Fast, cheap, high-throughput networks that could support richer products and experiences, like photo, video, and social networking. It wasn’t until bandwidth was cheap and abundant that we saw the Cambrian explosion of the internet as we know it.
We believe crypto is just now at its broadband moment. Reliably negligible blockchain costs and near-instant speeds - necessary for richer products and experiences - only became a reality in the last couple of years. We’re now at the point where the infrastructure is finally mature enough to support our application layer thesis.
The market is still yet to re-rate to reflect the value of this opportunity - it’s been slower than we expected.
But now the silver lining - it’s still ahead of us. We see a $100T opportunity. We’re at a crypto market cap of less than $3T today. That’s less than 3% of the way there. The price action of the last year has tested our patience - and reinforced our conviction that we’re squarely in a multi-year, multi-decade accumulation window.
And while the internet’s application layer took years to fully materialize after broadband arrived, we believe crypto’s will compress that timeline. Each technology wave moves faster than the last - built on the shoulders of existing infrastructure, adopted by a population already networked and digitally native. We believe the path from today to crypto’s YouTubes, Facebooks, and iPhones is right around the corner.
The fact that crypto is so liquid - unlike investing in other burgeoning technologies - can drive intense short-term-ism. As a result, we believe that the oft-cited investing cliché that time horizon is one of the few lasting competitive advantages is even more powerful in crypto.
Our patience is being tested, and through this test, we’ve returned to our foundations - we’ve dropped deeper into our long time horizon.
Patience is uncomfortable, but we believe the opportunity on the other side is massive.
Comma’s differentiation lies in conviction in the asymmetric opportunity present in crypto’s application layer - identifying winners early, owning them through volatility, and capturing asymmetric upside when the market rotates. This is one of the sources of value we add beyond passive Bitcoin exposure.
We’re maintaining our ~30% alt allocation as our baseline. We’ll expand over time as the market matures, and may contract in risk-off regimes - but we will remain in the thesis that differentiates us.
In our view, the macro backdrop remains constructive. Despite poor performance last year, nothing has fundamentally changed to invalidate our long-term thesis. We need more time for it to play out.
What would invalidate our long-term thesis?
A continuation of this constructive macro regime, followed by a transition to a negative one, without the continuation of the crypto bull market (and higher prices) first. If macro stays constructive through this year and alts continue to underperform Bitcoin, we will revisit fundamental assumptions about the timing of crypto’s application layer value accrual.
The October 10th flash crash - with $20 billion of levered positions liquidated in 24 hours - further underscores our conviction in avoiding leverage.
With a decades-long opportunity like crypto in front of us, we remain steadfast in doing all we can to eliminate blow-up risk. Leverage adds considerably to that risk. Moments like we witnessed in October - where we continue to hear whispers of large names going extinct due to forced liquidations - are important reminders.
The thesis remains: crypto is a generational technology and a generational investment opportunity - particularly in the application layer. What’s changed is how we manage risk while this thesis plays out - more systematic execution with tighter discipline, and economics fully aligned to outperformance.
Our job is to learn the right lessons. To build an ever-improving system that compounds. And to ensure that when tailwinds return, we’re well-positioned with our sails at the ready.
Our base case for 2026 is that it becomes the year that we expected 2025 to be.
Despite facing structural headwinds in 2025, we see tailwinds building. Stablecoin market cap grew throughout 2025 even as prices fell. DeFi protocols worked seamlessly during October’s flash crash while centralized venues had malfunctions. Regulatory clarity is being cemented, with the GENIUS Act passed in July and the CLARITY Act in the Senate after passing in the House. And the infrastructure our thesis depends on - sub-penny fees, near-instant finality - is finally here.
At the same time, a plethora of macro signals are converging. Global liquidity continues to rise. The USD is down 10% from the beginning of 2025, Treasury yields are down more than 0.5%, and oil is down 20%, continuing to ease financial conditions.
Bitcoin - and crypto broadly - is the sole major risk asset not tracking this recovery.
We believe October 10th was a market structure break - the largest liquidation cascade in crypto history ($20B in 24 hours) - that sparked a deviation from the underlying trend, not a regime change. The macro signals point to dramatic recovery. Crypto prices reflect fear.
Importantly, alarm bells like credit spreads and bond volatility are calm. If recession were on the horizon, these alarm bells would be ringing. Real-time inflation measures like Truflation are falling, keeping the Fed engaged in their path towards more neutral (read: lower) rates and preserving the liquidity backdrop.
We see a structural setup heading into 2026 that is much better than the price action suggests.
Unless recession materializes - which is not our base case - the setup for 2026 is more attractive than it was entering 2025. Crypto-specific headwinds are priced in. Macro alignment is strengthening. The gap between price and fundamentals is wide. Either crypto knows something the rest of the market doesn’t, or there’s a gap that will slam closed.
Decision-making under uncertainty requires probabilistic views, not absolute ones. A summary of our current framework for 2026 is as follows, with a more comprehensive version included further below:
Bear case (20%): Recession, re-inflation, or further geopolitical chaos. Bitcoin $50K-$100K. Alts down more.
Base case (50%): Modest disinflation, stable conditions, no major shocks. Bitcoin $100K-$150K. Alts outperform.
Bull case (30%): Liquidity accelerates, USD weakens further, PMIs climb. Bitcoin $150K-$300K. Material alt season.
These frameworks guide positioning - and we’re skewed constructive.
USD strength/weakness
2Y Treasury yield
10Y real yield
Global liquidity
High-yield credit spreads
Geopolitical or economic policy shocks induce further fear and chaos, leading to a risk-off flight to safety.
Financial conditions tighten, driving liquidity contraction (USD strengthens, inflation accelerates, rates increase, QT/liquidity withdrawals return).
The real economy doesn’t accelerate (e.g., PMIs stay below 50 and/or contract).
Geopolitical or economic policy further stabilizes.
Financial conditions ease further, driving liquidity expansion (USD weakens, inflation approaches 2% target, rates fall, QE/liquidity injections accelerate).
The real economy accelerates (e.g., PMIs climb into the 50s/towards 60).
A material reversal of current trend across various parts of the economy and markets.
Macro: inflation returns, strong USD, rates rise, liquidity falls
Global geopolitical and economic policy chaos (repeat or escalation of 2025)
Re-inflation (inflation above 3%)
1 cut or less (Fed funds above 3.25%)
10-year yields rise (above 4.5)
Strong USD (DXY above 100)
No QE/return to QT
Liquidity contraction
Meager economic growth (GDP growth below 2%, PMI declines below 50)
Crypto: deeper bear market (Bitcoin flat-to-down, alts down more)
The bear market that some expect
Crypto market cap ~$1.5T-$3T
Bitcoin flat-to-down (~$50K-$100K)
Bitcoin dominance up (alts down more)
Consistent with the current status quo and consensus.
Macro: modest disinflation, stable USD & rates, modest liquidity increase
Relative geopolitical and economic stability (improvement over last year)
Modest disinflation (inflation between 2%-3%)
2 cuts (Fed funds to 3.0%-3.25%)
10-year yields stable (between 4.0%-4.5%)
Stable USD (DXY 95-100)
Modest QE
Modest liquidity growth
Modest economic growth (2% GDP growth, PMI between 50-55)
Crypto: more of the same (Bitcoin up modestly, alts up more)
More of the same
Crypto market cap ~$3T-$5T
Bitcoin up near ATHs (~$100K-$150K)
Bitcoin dominance down modestly (alts up more)
Key factors are already trending this direction (e.g., USD, disinflation, rate cuts, QT ending), but would require acceleration.
Macro: inflation at target, USD & rates continue declines, liquidity climbs
Geopolitical and economic progress and order (material improvement over last year)
Material disinflation (inflation at or below 2% target)
3 cuts or more (Fed funds below 3.0%)
10-year yields fall (below 4.0%)
Weak USD (DXY below 95)
QE
Material liquidity growth
Economic re-acceleration (GDP growth above 2.5%, PMI above 55)
Crypto: return to bull market (Bitcoin up big, alts up even bigger)
The true bull market we didn’t get in 2025
Crypto market cap ~$5T-$10T
Bitcoin new ATHs (~$150K-$300K)
Bitcoin dominance down materially (material alt outperformance)
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