Strategists at Citi said their "general view is that higher taxes are an economic activity dampener." Yet once they dug into which S&P 500 firms would be affected by the new tax rate, they concluded it would have a "neutral" effect on aggregate profits, and that an economic slowdown and the Federal Reserve are "more relevant" to the outlook.

Citi found that 358 companies in the index make enough money to be subject to the minimum tax, which is expected to raise more than $220 billion over the next 10 years. Yet only 50 are expected to be taxed below a 15% rate in 2023. Applying the new minimum would reduce their earnings by roughly 0.4% next year, per current forecasts.

*

Looking at share repurchases for 2021, Citi found that a 1% tax would have reduced S&P 500 earnings by just 0.35%, all else being equal.

A team at Goldman Sachs drew a similar takeaway. It said that the buyback tax and minimum corporate tax would lower per-share profits next year among S&P 500 companies by just 1.5%.

That doesn't mean individual companies won't have to contend with the consequences. Moody's Investors Service found that 9% of investment-grade firms in the United States "can expect to pay higher cash taxes under the bill," and that oil and gas producers and software and semiconductor makers "will be affected the most."

Strategists at Citi said their "general view is that higher taxes are an economic activity dampener." Yet once they dug into which S&P 500 firms would be affected by the new tax rate, they concluded it would have a "neutral" effect on aggregate profits, and that an economic slowdown and the Federal Reserve are "more relevant" to the outlook.

Citi found that 358 companies in the index make enough money to be subject to the minimum tax, which is expected to raise more than $220 billion over the next 10 years. Yet only 50 are expected to be taxed below a 15% rate in 2023. Applying the new minimum would reduce their earnings by roughly 0.4% next year, per current forecasts.

*

Looking at share repurchases for 2021, Citi found that a 1% tax would have reduced S&P 500 earnings by just 0.35%, all else being equal.

A team at Goldman Sachs drew a similar takeaway. It said that the buyback tax and minimum corporate tax would lower per-share profits next year among S&P 500 companies by just 1.5%.

That doesn't mean individual companies won't have to contend with the consequences. Moody's Investors Service found that 9% of investment-grade firms in the United States "can expect to pay higher cash taxes under the bill," and that oil and gas producers and software and semiconductor makers "will be affected the most."