Yesterday I said I still see $30K–$40K as a possible bottom zone.

But let’s talk about something more important.

What would make me wrong?

Because having a bias is fine. Being married to it is dangerous.

I’m not here to defend a prediction. I’m here to position properly.

So here’s what would invalidate my thesis.

If Bitcoin keeps holding the $60K area, prints higher lows, and starts pushing strong weekly closes above key resistance without immediate rejection, that changes things.

I’m talking about:

• Clean higher highs

• Pullbacks that get bought quickly

• No aggressive downside continuation

• Strong weekly momentum

If that structure builds, the market is telling us demand is stronger than expected.

And when structure shifts, probabilities shift.

Simple.

One reason I’m watching $30K–$40K is because markets love to create maximum frustration before moving higher.

Deep wicks. Panic headlines. Liquidations. Fear.

If we don’t get that kind of event… that’s information.

If Bitcoin grinds, consolidates, absorbs selling, and slowly moves up without a dramatic flush — that means stronger hands are stepping in earlier.

And strong hands don’t wait for perfect prices.

Bitcoin doesn’t exist in a vacuum.

If we see clear liquidity expansion, aggressive risk-on behavior, strong inflows, and macro conditions improving into year-end, then the chance of a deep retrace drops.

Markets move ahead of headlines.

If liquidity expands before fear peaks, the bottom might already be in around these levels.

I think $30K–$40K is an attractive zone.

But I’m not stubborn about it.

If the market shows strength, I adjust.

That’s why I’m already comfortable DCA-ing around $60K. I’m not sitting here waiting for a perfect entry that might never come.

Could we flush lower? Yes.

Could $60K end up being the pivot and we grind higher into year-end? Also yes.

I’m not trying to win a prediction contest.

I’m trying to be positioned for both outcomes.

And if I’m wrong about $30K–$40K, that likely means the market is stronger than expected.

Which, honestly, isn’t a bad problem to have.

Yesterday I said I still see $30K–$40K as a possible bottom zone.

But let’s talk about something more important.

What would make me wrong?

Because having a bias is fine. Being married to it is dangerous.

I’m not here to defend a prediction. I’m here to position properly.

So here’s what would invalidate my thesis.

If Bitcoin keeps holding the $60K area, prints higher lows, and starts pushing strong weekly closes above key resistance without immediate rejection, that changes things.

I’m talking about:

• Clean higher highs

• Pullbacks that get bought quickly

• No aggressive downside continuation

• Strong weekly momentum

If that structure builds, the market is telling us demand is stronger than expected.

And when structure shifts, probabilities shift.

Simple.

One reason I’m watching $30K–$40K is because markets love to create maximum frustration before moving higher.

Deep wicks. Panic headlines. Liquidations. Fear.

If we don’t get that kind of event… that’s information.

If Bitcoin grinds, consolidates, absorbs selling, and slowly moves up without a dramatic flush — that means stronger hands are stepping in earlier.

And strong hands don’t wait for perfect prices.

Bitcoin doesn’t exist in a vacuum.

If we see clear liquidity expansion, aggressive risk-on behavior, strong inflows, and macro conditions improving into year-end, then the chance of a deep retrace drops.

Markets move ahead of headlines.

If liquidity expands before fear peaks, the bottom might already be in around these levels.

I think $30K–$40K is an attractive zone.

But I’m not stubborn about it.

If the market shows strength, I adjust.

That’s why I’m already comfortable DCA-ing around $60K. I’m not sitting here waiting for a perfect entry that might never come.

Could we flush lower? Yes.

Could $60K end up being the pivot and we grind higher into year-end? Also yes.

I’m not trying to win a prediction contest.

I’m trying to be positioned for both outcomes.

And if I’m wrong about $30K–$40K, that likely means the market is stronger than expected.

Which, honestly, isn’t a bad problem to have.