Overall demand for Bitcoin is decreasing, while MicroStrategy (MSTR) is accumulating more and more. Are you part of the majority or are you like MSTR?

The funny thing when looking at the chart above is that every time $BTC reached an All-Time High (ATH), market demand also peaked and, at the same time, the market "bought the top." 😂

So now, with Apparent Demand tending to contract as shown in the chart above, what will the $BTC price trend be in Q3? Let's look at the following key data:

The Realized Profit/Loss ratio is now balanced, indicating that long-term holders no longer have selling pressure.

The outflow/inflow ratio is around 0.9 (lowest since 2023), indicating strong real buying flow, as withdrawals exceed deposits. This reflects long-term investors accumulating rather than selling.

Declining USD means more money (M2) is being injected into the global system. When more money circulates, BTC often benefits, and history shows that BTC typically follows the M2 trend with a lag of about 3 months.

The Funding Rate is slightly negative, indicating a market sentiment skewed towards shorting and caution. This is an interesting insight.

Historically, when a short squeeze occurs, it forces short positions to close rapidly, causing a sharp upward movement in BTC price, often accompanied by a swift shift in the Funding Rate from negative to positive. For instance, the last times the Funding Rate turned significantly positive after being negative (September 2024 and July 2023), BTC saw substantial gains of 80–150% within just a few weeks.

👉 If BTC maintains an upward trend while the Funding Rate remains negative, a short squeeze occurs, and stablecoin liquidity returns, could we see a surprising "pump" in Q4?

A possible scenario from iCrypto’s perspective: The likelihood of a new all-time high (ATH) in Q3 is not high, as money flow signals are not strong enough yet. BTC's price could trade sideways, potentially ranging between $95,000 and $117,000 in Q3. If positive money flow returns after this period, a short squeeze could trigger a price surge, with expectations around $120,000 to $130,000.

Suitable strategy: Monitor funding rate and stablecoin flow signals to identify short squeeze entry points.

Main risk: Money flow remains weak due to macro issues and stablecoin-related policies.