The Business of Volatility
When $9.5 billion vanished overnight, volatility once again proved it’s not just a measure of risk — it’s a business.
SKY Fair Value: $0.20 A Cashflow-Driven Valuation Under the $50B USDS Scenario
1. The Master Chart: Stablecoin SupplyIf there is one chart that matters above all others when valuing Sky, it is the stablecoin supply chart. Everything else—revenues, buybacks, staking yields, ecosystem expansion—ultimately rolls up into one outcome: how much stablecoin supply the system can sustain and grow over time. Stablecoin supply is not just a vanity metric. It is the closest thing in crypto to a “core product KPI,” because it captures demand, trust, distribution, capital efficiency,...
SKY Total Supply 23.465.672.042
SKY Supply: From Maker’s Fixed Cap to a Post-Migration Era
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The Business of Volatility
When $9.5 billion vanished overnight, volatility once again proved it’s not just a measure of risk — it’s a business.
SKY Fair Value: $0.20 A Cashflow-Driven Valuation Under the $50B USDS Scenario
1. The Master Chart: Stablecoin SupplyIf there is one chart that matters above all others when valuing Sky, it is the stablecoin supply chart. Everything else—revenues, buybacks, staking yields, ecosystem expansion—ultimately rolls up into one outcome: how much stablecoin supply the system can sustain and grow over time. Stablecoin supply is not just a vanity metric. It is the closest thing in crypto to a “core product KPI,” because it captures demand, trust, distribution, capital efficiency,...
SKY Total Supply 23.465.672.042
SKY Supply: From Maker’s Fixed Cap to a Post-Migration Era
Here is Bitcoin’s return in 2025 measured in USD and in EUR, and why the currency can change (a lot) how you read your performance.
Using closes from Dec 31, 2024 to Dec 31, 2025:
BTC in USD
Dec 31, 2024: $93,460.42
Dec 31, 2025: $87,501.95
2025 return (USD): (87,501.95/93,460.42)−1(87,501.95 / 93,460.42) - 1(87,501.95/93,460.42)−1 ≈ -6.37%
(Consistent with external estimates around ~-6.33% / -6.34%)
BTC in EUR
Dec 31, 2024: €90,074.43
Dec 31, 2025: €74,500.96
2025 return (EUR): (74,500.96/90,074.43)−1(74,500.96 / 90,074.43) - 1(74,500.96/90,074.43)−1 ≈ -17.29%
Numeric takeaway: in 2025, BTC fell ~-6.4% in USD, but ~-17.3% in EUR.
That gap (about -10.9 percentage points) is huge for “the same asset”.
Think of your “real” return in your base currency (EUR if you live/spend in euros) as:
Return (BTC in EUR) ≈ Return (BTC in USD) + Return (USD/EUR)
(approximate, but very useful intuition)
Since BTC in EUR did ~10.9 pp worse than in USD, that suggests that in 2025 the USD weakened versus the EUR (or, equivalently, the EUR strengthened). In other words: even if Bitcoin only fell “a little” in dollars, once you convert to euros the hit was much larger.
Your “correct benchmark” depends on your spending currency.
If your expenses, taxes, and lifestyle are in EUR, your truth is EUR. Measuring in USD can give you a false sense of safety (or euphoria).
FX is an additional risk factor, even if you didn’t explicitly “buy it.”
Investing in USD-priced assets (US stocks, BTC on USD-based venues, etc.) already introduces USD risk. Sometimes it boosts returns; other times it drags them down.
In crypto, FX can feel secondary… until a year like 2025 makes it obvious.
-6% vs -17% changes decisions: acceptable drawdown, position sizing, rebalancing, and even investor psychology.
Hedging: not always, but worth thinking about.
I’m not saying “always hedge” (it has costs and depends on your horizon), but:
If your goal is preserving purchasing power in EUR, measure, report, and decide in EUR.
If you report to investors in different currencies, clearly separate:
asset return (BTC)
FX return (USD/EUR)
Clean decomposition in English, splitting the -17.3% in EUR into:
BTC move in USD (the “asset” component)
EUR/USD move (the FX translation effect when you measure in EUR)
BTC (close)
Dec 31, 2024: BTC-USD = 93,460.42
Dec 31, 2025: BTC-USD = 87,501.95
Dec 31, 2024: BTC-EUR = 90,074.43
Dec 31, 2025: BTC-EUR = 74,500.96
ECB EUR/USD (1 EUR = X USD)
Dec 31, 2024: you provided 1 EUR = 1.0389 USD (I use it as given)
Dec 31, 2025: 1 EUR = 1.1750 USD
(That matches the ~-6.4% figure.)
To translate USD prices into EUR:
So the FX factor from 2024→2025 is:
Interpretation: the euro strengthened versus the dollar in 2025 (EUR/USD rose), which subtracts ~11.6% from USD-denominated performance when viewed in EUR.
That’s essentially the same as the -17.29% you get directly from BTC-EUR closes (tiny gap = rounding + different data sources/close conventions).
BTC (in USD): -6.37%
FX (EUR/USD): -11.58%
Combined (multiplicative): -17.23% (vs -17.29% observed)
Quick takeaway: for a EUR-based investor in 2025, FX explained roughly two-thirds of the drawdown (about 11.6 out of 17.2 points), and the rest came from BTC itself.
Here is Bitcoin’s return in 2025 measured in USD and in EUR, and why the currency can change (a lot) how you read your performance.
Using closes from Dec 31, 2024 to Dec 31, 2025:
BTC in USD
Dec 31, 2024: $93,460.42
Dec 31, 2025: $87,501.95
2025 return (USD): (87,501.95/93,460.42)−1(87,501.95 / 93,460.42) - 1(87,501.95/93,460.42)−1 ≈ -6.37%
(Consistent with external estimates around ~-6.33% / -6.34%)
BTC in EUR
Dec 31, 2024: €90,074.43
Dec 31, 2025: €74,500.96
2025 return (EUR): (74,500.96/90,074.43)−1(74,500.96 / 90,074.43) - 1(74,500.96/90,074.43)−1 ≈ -17.29%
Numeric takeaway: in 2025, BTC fell ~-6.4% in USD, but ~-17.3% in EUR.
That gap (about -10.9 percentage points) is huge for “the same asset”.
Think of your “real” return in your base currency (EUR if you live/spend in euros) as:
Return (BTC in EUR) ≈ Return (BTC in USD) + Return (USD/EUR)
(approximate, but very useful intuition)
Since BTC in EUR did ~10.9 pp worse than in USD, that suggests that in 2025 the USD weakened versus the EUR (or, equivalently, the EUR strengthened). In other words: even if Bitcoin only fell “a little” in dollars, once you convert to euros the hit was much larger.
Your “correct benchmark” depends on your spending currency.
If your expenses, taxes, and lifestyle are in EUR, your truth is EUR. Measuring in USD can give you a false sense of safety (or euphoria).
FX is an additional risk factor, even if you didn’t explicitly “buy it.”
Investing in USD-priced assets (US stocks, BTC on USD-based venues, etc.) already introduces USD risk. Sometimes it boosts returns; other times it drags them down.
In crypto, FX can feel secondary… until a year like 2025 makes it obvious.
-6% vs -17% changes decisions: acceptable drawdown, position sizing, rebalancing, and even investor psychology.
Hedging: not always, but worth thinking about.
I’m not saying “always hedge” (it has costs and depends on your horizon), but:
If your goal is preserving purchasing power in EUR, measure, report, and decide in EUR.
If you report to investors in different currencies, clearly separate:
asset return (BTC)
FX return (USD/EUR)
Clean decomposition in English, splitting the -17.3% in EUR into:
BTC move in USD (the “asset” component)
EUR/USD move (the FX translation effect when you measure in EUR)
BTC (close)
Dec 31, 2024: BTC-USD = 93,460.42
Dec 31, 2025: BTC-USD = 87,501.95
Dec 31, 2024: BTC-EUR = 90,074.43
Dec 31, 2025: BTC-EUR = 74,500.96
ECB EUR/USD (1 EUR = X USD)
Dec 31, 2024: you provided 1 EUR = 1.0389 USD (I use it as given)
Dec 31, 2025: 1 EUR = 1.1750 USD
(That matches the ~-6.4% figure.)
To translate USD prices into EUR:
So the FX factor from 2024→2025 is:
Interpretation: the euro strengthened versus the dollar in 2025 (EUR/USD rose), which subtracts ~11.6% from USD-denominated performance when viewed in EUR.
That’s essentially the same as the -17.29% you get directly from BTC-EUR closes (tiny gap = rounding + different data sources/close conventions).
BTC (in USD): -6.37%
FX (EUR/USD): -11.58%
Combined (multiplicative): -17.23% (vs -17.29% observed)
Quick takeaway: for a EUR-based investor in 2025, FX explained roughly two-thirds of the drawdown (about 11.6 out of 17.2 points), and the rest came from BTC itself.
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Bitcoin’s 2025 performance varies by currency: USD fell ~6.4%, EUR ~17.3% as the euro strengthened. FX accounted for about two-thirds of the EUR drop, so base currency matters for EUR-based investors. USD view: BTC -6.37%, FX -11.58%, total ~-17.23%. Currency choice shapes returns. @especulacion