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Bias: Neutral → Defensive (Risk-Off Shift)
Markets don’t usually break when people are calm.They break when leverage, narratives, and confidence all stack on top of each other.
Over the last 48 hours, we’ve seen something important shift:
Macro headlines started driving price more than on-chain fundamentals
Over-leveraged positions were forcefully flushed
Capital didn’t leave crypto — it rotated back to stablecoins!
This report documents what actually changed, what didn’t, and how I’m thinking about risk without chasing noise.
No predictions.No hype.Just structure, levels, and probabilities.
The current market environment has shifted from neutral to defensive. Bitcoin was trading below 89K multiple times today and a revist to the lower 80Kregion is entirely possible.
Geopolitical tension around US–EU trade escalated quickly
Trump’s proposed 10–25% tariffs on NATO allies shocked traditional markets
Crypto reacted with equities, not independently
Bitcoin lost short-term support
Ethereum struggled to hold key levels
Over-leveraged longs were wiped out
Market Bias: Risk-Off
Opportunity: Cleaner, deleveraged entry zones
Risk: Contagion if BTC loses the $90k region decisively (we are already below now)
That's why we implemented short hedges on LBank using the leverage Perps platform. Click the link below to take advantage of deposit bonuses and receive a 15% discount on your trading fees (thanks to DADSDEFISPACE). Additionally, you'll gain free access to my new Premium trading group.
20% DEPOSIT BONUS | 15% OFF TRADING FEES FOR PR GROUP ACCESS
📢 Free Telegram Group: https://t.me/DADSDefiSpace
Understanding the regime prevents overreaction.
48 (Neutral)
Fell sharply from 72 (Greed) in one day
This tells us sentiment reset faster than price
BTC Season (28)
Alts are bleeding harder than Bitcoin
Capital is seeking the “hardest” asset first
59.2% and rising
A classic risk-off behavior
Bitcoin leads during uncertainty
Trend:
Short-term: Bearish
Higher timeframe: Still Bullish

Key Levels
Support: $89,500 → $86,000 (FIGHTING FOR THIS RIGHT NOW)
Resistance: $93,300 → $98,000
Invalidation
A daily close below $85,000 flips the mid-term structure bearish
Bitcoin breaking $93k wasn’t “the end.”It was leverage getting punished.
What matters now is how price behaves around $89–90k.
Ethereum (ETH)
Trend: Range-bound

Key Levels
Support: $3,150 → $3,000
Resistance: $3,500 → $3,850
Relative Risk
If ETH/BTC loses 0.032, expect continued underperformance

ETH doesn’t usually lead during macro stress.Patience here is not weakness — it’s discipline.
This was not a random dump.
$500M liquidated in 24 hours
$124M in BTC longs alone
A textbook short squeeze

Open interest dropped from $90B → ~$65B
“Tourist leverage” was removed
Funding rates reset to neutral
Strong buy walls around $88,500
If that fails, next major cluster sits near $82,000
This is painful — but structurally healthy.
Despite price weakness, on-chain data is constructive.
Solana
Approaching $10B TVL
Holding up due to ETF speculation and real usage
Sui
Surpassed $2B TVL
Fastest-growing L1
Institutional interest from Grayscale and Franklin Templeton
Base
Steady at $1.5B+ TVL
Highest active address growth
SocialFi is driving usage, not farming incentives
Protocol | Chain | APY | Risk Reminder |
Aerodrome (vAERO) | Base | 45–70% | High emissions, IL risk |
Cetus (SUI/USDC) | Sui | ~30% | Active management required |
Ethena (sUSDe) | ETH/L2 | ~12% | Counterparty & model risk |
Stable Yield Watch
Mountain Protocol (USDM): ~5.2% (T-bill backed, rebasing)
Pendle
PT-eETH pools now offering 15–20% fixed
Yield compression is already underway
Yield exists — but only for those who manage risk.
Sentiment right now is reactive, not thoughtful.
“Greenland Standoff”
Tariff escalation
Macro fear cycles
Zora mints shifting toward political satire & identity
Creator coins consolidating after speculation
Base App engagement remains high
Confidence Score: 0.65People expect dips to be bought — but they’re nervous.
Jan 20, 2026: Trump tariff threats trigger sell-off
Jan 21, 2026: Solana Mobile airdrop claims open (expect volatility)
Q1 2026: Base token speculation accelerating
Q2 2026: Aerodrome + Velodrome merger → “Aero” liquidity hub
Catalysts don’t guarantee direction — they increase volatility.
BTC holds $89k
Macro tension cools at Davos
Reclaim of $93,300 confirms strength
Chop between $88k–$92k
Market digests macro shock
Builders keep building
BTC loses $88k
Liquidations cascade to ~$82k
Actual tariff implementation escalates risk
Invalidation matters more than conviction.
Momentum: Neutral to Bearish
Catalysts:
Morgan Stanley spot ETF filing
Western Union stablecoin (H1 2026)
Alpenglow upgrade (150ms finality)
Momentum: Strong
Catalyst: $2B TVL + Phantom wallet support
Strategy: Watch and see
Momentum: Corrective Hold
Catalyst: Velodrome merger → $500M+ TVL consolidation
Narrative: Base’s liquidity engine
Short-term: Bearish
Long-term: Bullish
Focus: Monetization-heavy subnets, not hype staking yield to counteract volitility
Zora transitioning to content-coin model
$DADSDEFISPACE remains community coordination layer for our presense in WEB3 and on Base
Part of the $DADSDEFISPACE ecosystem.
Mobile-first Web3 narrative growing
Exploring burning and other techniques to grow ecosystem and show conviction.
Base token speculation is reaching critical mass.
Volume > wallet count
Use of Base App
Creating Communiities
Building & Creating (Zora offer a way to do this)
Trading Base tokens
Repeated usage > one-off interactions
ETH network usage > stablecoin farming (But im doing both)
Use official Base Bridge
LP and swap consistently
Engage socially (Base App, Farcaster)
Base L2
Backpack
Polymarket
OpenSea (longer-term)
SAIL (AI Agent Stablecoin Yield)
Nothing guaranteed.Everything optional.
Watching: BTC $89,500 will it recliam 90000
If reclaimed: I’ll reassess SUI and AERO and ETH
If lost: Capital preservation comes first
Macro-driven moves are often irrational.Let the liquidations finish.
If you want to follow along as this plays out:
📢 Telegram: https://t.me/DADSDefiSpace
Free Course: https://www.dadsdefispace.org/challenges
Zora Creator Coin: https://zora.co/dadsdefispace
📲 Base App: https://base.app/profile/dadsdefispace
🏦 LBank (affiliate, disclosed): https://lbank.com/ref/5IPGV
Everything is optional.Everything is on-chain.Everything can change.
This market doesn’t need bold predictions.It needs calm operators with a plan.
That’s the role DADS DeFi SPACE plays.
⚠️ Disclaimer: This content is for entertainment and informational purposes only and should not be taken as financial, legal, or tax advice. All opinions are my own — I’m not a licensed financial or investment advisor. Crypto and DeFi involve significant risk. Always do your own research.
©️ 2025 DAD DEFI SPACE
Bias: Neutral → Defensive (Risk-Off Shift)
Markets don’t usually break when people are calm.They break when leverage, narratives, and confidence all stack on top of each other.
Over the last 48 hours, we’ve seen something important shift:
Macro headlines started driving price more than on-chain fundamentals
Over-leveraged positions were forcefully flushed
Capital didn’t leave crypto — it rotated back to stablecoins!
This report documents what actually changed, what didn’t, and how I’m thinking about risk without chasing noise.
No predictions.No hype.Just structure, levels, and probabilities.
The current market environment has shifted from neutral to defensive. Bitcoin was trading below 89K multiple times today and a revist to the lower 80Kregion is entirely possible.
Geopolitical tension around US–EU trade escalated quickly
Trump’s proposed 10–25% tariffs on NATO allies shocked traditional markets
Crypto reacted with equities, not independently
Bitcoin lost short-term support
Ethereum struggled to hold key levels
Over-leveraged longs were wiped out
Market Bias: Risk-Off
Opportunity: Cleaner, deleveraged entry zones
Risk: Contagion if BTC loses the $90k region decisively (we are already below now)
That's why we implemented short hedges on LBank using the leverage Perps platform. Click the link below to take advantage of deposit bonuses and receive a 15% discount on your trading fees (thanks to DADSDEFISPACE). Additionally, you'll gain free access to my new Premium trading group.
20% DEPOSIT BONUS | 15% OFF TRADING FEES FOR PR GROUP ACCESS
📢 Free Telegram Group: https://t.me/DADSDefiSpace
Understanding the regime prevents overreaction.
48 (Neutral)
Fell sharply from 72 (Greed) in one day
This tells us sentiment reset faster than price
BTC Season (28)
Alts are bleeding harder than Bitcoin
Capital is seeking the “hardest” asset first
59.2% and rising
A classic risk-off behavior
Bitcoin leads during uncertainty
Trend:
Short-term: Bearish
Higher timeframe: Still Bullish

Key Levels
Support: $89,500 → $86,000 (FIGHTING FOR THIS RIGHT NOW)
Resistance: $93,300 → $98,000
Invalidation
A daily close below $85,000 flips the mid-term structure bearish
Bitcoin breaking $93k wasn’t “the end.”It was leverage getting punished.
What matters now is how price behaves around $89–90k.
Ethereum (ETH)
Trend: Range-bound

Key Levels
Support: $3,150 → $3,000
Resistance: $3,500 → $3,850
Relative Risk
If ETH/BTC loses 0.032, expect continued underperformance

ETH doesn’t usually lead during macro stress.Patience here is not weakness — it’s discipline.
This was not a random dump.
$500M liquidated in 24 hours
$124M in BTC longs alone
A textbook short squeeze

Open interest dropped from $90B → ~$65B
“Tourist leverage” was removed
Funding rates reset to neutral
Strong buy walls around $88,500
If that fails, next major cluster sits near $82,000
This is painful — but structurally healthy.
Despite price weakness, on-chain data is constructive.
Solana
Approaching $10B TVL
Holding up due to ETF speculation and real usage
Sui
Surpassed $2B TVL
Fastest-growing L1
Institutional interest from Grayscale and Franklin Templeton
Base
Steady at $1.5B+ TVL
Highest active address growth
SocialFi is driving usage, not farming incentives
Protocol | Chain | APY | Risk Reminder |
Aerodrome (vAERO) | Base | 45–70% | High emissions, IL risk |
Cetus (SUI/USDC) | Sui | ~30% | Active management required |
Ethena (sUSDe) | ETH/L2 | ~12% | Counterparty & model risk |
Stable Yield Watch
Mountain Protocol (USDM): ~5.2% (T-bill backed, rebasing)
Pendle
PT-eETH pools now offering 15–20% fixed
Yield compression is already underway
Yield exists — but only for those who manage risk.
Sentiment right now is reactive, not thoughtful.
“Greenland Standoff”
Tariff escalation
Macro fear cycles
Zora mints shifting toward political satire & identity
Creator coins consolidating after speculation
Base App engagement remains high
Confidence Score: 0.65People expect dips to be bought — but they’re nervous.
Jan 20, 2026: Trump tariff threats trigger sell-off
Jan 21, 2026: Solana Mobile airdrop claims open (expect volatility)
Q1 2026: Base token speculation accelerating
Q2 2026: Aerodrome + Velodrome merger → “Aero” liquidity hub
Catalysts don’t guarantee direction — they increase volatility.
BTC holds $89k
Macro tension cools at Davos
Reclaim of $93,300 confirms strength
Chop between $88k–$92k
Market digests macro shock
Builders keep building
BTC loses $88k
Liquidations cascade to ~$82k
Actual tariff implementation escalates risk
Invalidation matters more than conviction.
Momentum: Neutral to Bearish
Catalysts:
Morgan Stanley spot ETF filing
Western Union stablecoin (H1 2026)
Alpenglow upgrade (150ms finality)
Momentum: Strong
Catalyst: $2B TVL + Phantom wallet support
Strategy: Watch and see
Momentum: Corrective Hold
Catalyst: Velodrome merger → $500M+ TVL consolidation
Narrative: Base’s liquidity engine
Short-term: Bearish
Long-term: Bullish
Focus: Monetization-heavy subnets, not hype staking yield to counteract volitility
Zora transitioning to content-coin model
$DADSDEFISPACE remains community coordination layer for our presense in WEB3 and on Base
Part of the $DADSDEFISPACE ecosystem.
Mobile-first Web3 narrative growing
Exploring burning and other techniques to grow ecosystem and show conviction.
Base token speculation is reaching critical mass.
Volume > wallet count
Use of Base App
Creating Communiities
Building & Creating (Zora offer a way to do this)
Trading Base tokens
Repeated usage > one-off interactions
ETH network usage > stablecoin farming (But im doing both)
Use official Base Bridge
LP and swap consistently
Engage socially (Base App, Farcaster)
Base L2
Backpack
Polymarket
OpenSea (longer-term)
SAIL (AI Agent Stablecoin Yield)
Nothing guaranteed.Everything optional.
Watching: BTC $89,500 will it recliam 90000
If reclaimed: I’ll reassess SUI and AERO and ETH
If lost: Capital preservation comes first
Macro-driven moves are often irrational.Let the liquidations finish.
If you want to follow along as this plays out:
📢 Telegram: https://t.me/DADSDefiSpace
Free Course: https://www.dadsdefispace.org/challenges
Zora Creator Coin: https://zora.co/dadsdefispace
📲 Base App: https://base.app/profile/dadsdefispace
🏦 LBank (affiliate, disclosed): https://lbank.com/ref/5IPGV
Everything is optional.Everything is on-chain.Everything can change.
This market doesn’t need bold predictions.It needs calm operators with a plan.
That’s the role DADS DeFi SPACE plays.
⚠️ Disclaimer: This content is for entertainment and informational purposes only and should not be taken as financial, legal, or tax advice. All opinions are my own — I’m not a licensed financial or investment advisor. Crypto and DeFi involve significant risk. Always do your own research.
©️ 2025 DAD DEFI SPACE
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