Bias: Neutral → Defensive (Risk-Off Shift)

Markets don’t usually break when people are calm.They break when leverage, narratives, and confidence all stack on top of each other.

Over the last 48 hours, we’ve seen something important shift:

• Macro headlines started driving price more than on-chain fundamentals

• Over-leveraged positions were forcefully flushed

• Capital didn’t leave crypto — it rotated back to stablecoins!

This report documents what actually changed, what didn’t, and how I’m thinking about risk without chasing noise.

No predictions.No hype.Just structure, levels, and probabilities.

The current market environment has shifted from neutral to defensive. Bitcoin was trading below 89K multiple times today and a revist to the lower 80Kregion is entirely possible.

• Geopolitical tension around US–EU trade escalated quickly

• Trump’s proposed 10–25% tariffs on NATO allies shocked traditional markets

• Crypto reacted with equities, not independently

• Bitcoin lost short-term support

• Ethereum struggled to hold key levels

• Over-leveraged longs were wiped out

• Market Bias: Risk-Off

• Opportunity: Cleaner, deleveraged entry zones

• Risk: Contagion if BTC loses the $90k region decisively (we are already below now)

That's why we implemented short hedges on LBank using the leverage Perps platform. Click the link below to take advantage of deposit bonuses and receive a 15% discount on your trading fees (thanks to DADSDEFISPACE). Additionally, you'll gain free access to my new Premium trading group.

20% DEPOSIT BONUS | 15% OFF TRADING FEES FOR PR GROUP ACCESS

https://lbank.com/ref/5IPGV

📢 Free Telegram Group: https://t.me/DADSDefiSpace

Understanding the regime prevents overreaction.

• 48 (Neutral)

• Fell sharply from 72 (Greed) in one day

• This tells us sentiment reset faster than price

• BTC Season (28)

• Alts are bleeding harder than Bitcoin

• Capital is seeking the “hardest” asset first

• 59.2% and rising

• A classic risk-off behavior

• Bitcoin leads during uncertainty

Trend:

• Short-term: Bearish

• Higher timeframe: Still Bullish

Key Levels

• Support: $89,500 → $86,000 (FIGHTING FOR THIS RIGHT NOW)

• Resistance: $93,300 → $98,000

Invalidation

• A daily close below $85,000 flips the mid-term structure bearish

Bitcoin breaking $93k wasn’t “the end.”It was leverage getting punished.

What matters now is how price behaves around $89–90k.

Ethereum (ETH)

Trend: Range-bound

Key Levels

• Support: $3,150 → $3,000

• Resistance: $3,500 → $3,850

Relative Risk

• If ETH/BTC loses 0.032, expect continued underperformance

ETH doesn’t usually lead during macro stress.Patience here is not weakness — it’s discipline.

This was not a random dump.

• $500M liquidated in 24 hours

• $124M in BTC longs alone

• A textbook short squeeze

• Open interest dropped from $90B → ~$65B

• “Tourist leverage” was removed

• Funding rates reset to neutral

• Strong buy walls around $88,500

• If that fails, next major cluster sits near $82,000

This is painful — but structurally healthy.

Despite price weakness, on-chain data is constructive.

Solana

• Approaching $10B TVL

• Holding up due to ETF speculation and real usage

Sui

• Surpassed $2B TVL

• Fastest-growing L1

• Institutional interest from Grayscale and Franklin Templeton

Base

• Steady at $1.5B+ TVL

• Highest active address growth

• SocialFi is driving usage, not farming incentives

Stable Yield Watch

• Mountain Protocol (USDM): ~5.2% (T-bill backed, rebasing)

Pendle

• PT-eETH pools now offering 15–20% fixed

• Yield compression is already underway

Yield exists — but only for those who manage risk.

Sentiment right now is reactive, not thoughtful.

• “Greenland Standoff”

• Tariff escalation

• Macro fear cycles

• Zora mints shifting toward political satire & identity

• Creator coins consolidating after speculation

• Base App engagement remains high

Confidence Score: 0.65People expect dips to be bought — but they’re nervous.

• Jan 20, 2026: Trump tariff threats trigger sell-off

• Jan 21, 2026: Solana Mobile airdrop claims open (expect volatility)

• Q1 2026: Base token speculation accelerating

• Q2 2026: Aerodrome + Velodrome merger → “Aero” liquidity hub

Catalysts don’t guarantee direction — they increase volatility.

• BTC holds $89k

• Macro tension cools at Davos

• Reclaim of $93,300 confirms strength

• Chop between $88k–$92k

• Market digests macro shock

• Builders keep building

• BTC loses $88k

• Liquidations cascade to ~$82k

• Actual tariff implementation escalates risk

Invalidation matters more than conviction.

• Momentum: Neutral to Bearish

• Catalysts:

  • Morgan Stanley spot ETF filing

  • Western Union stablecoin (H1 2026)

  • Alpenglow upgrade (150ms finality)

• Momentum: Strong

• Catalyst: $2B TVL + Phantom wallet support

• Strategy: Watch and see

• Momentum: Corrective Hold

• Catalyst: Velodrome merger → $500M+ TVL consolidation

• Narrative: Base’s liquidity engine

• Short-term: Bearish

• Long-term: Bullish

• Focus: Monetization-heavy subnets, not hype staking yield to counteract volitility

• Zora transitioning to content-coin model

• $DADSDEFISPACE remains community coordination layer for our presense in WEB3 and on Base

Part of the $DADSDEFISPACE ecosystem.

🔗 https://zora.co/coin/base:0x3dcefb54e60579b08f7a845bde6497b62d483a2a?referrer=0x477ef3302f75f3fc86c7b2d68df426a1bda33878

• Mobile-first Web3 narrative growing

• Exploring burning and other techniques to grow ecosystem and show conviction.

Base token speculation is reaching critical mass.

• Volume > wallet count

• Use of Base App

• Creating Communiities

• Building & Creating (Zora offer a way to do this)

• Trading Base tokens

• Repeated usage > one-off interactions

• ETH network usage > stablecoin farming (But im doing both)

• Use official Base Bridge

• LP and swap consistently

• Engage socially (Base App, Farcaster)

• Base L2

• Backpack

• Polymarket

• OpenSea (longer-term)

• SAIL (AI Agent Stablecoin Yield)

Nothing guaranteed.Everything optional.

• Watching: BTC $89,500 will it recliam 90000

• If reclaimed: I’ll reassess SUI and AERO and ETH

• If lost: Capital preservation comes first

Macro-driven moves are often irrational.Let the liquidations finish.

If you want to follow along as this plays out:

• 📢 Telegram: https://t.me/DADSDefiSpace

• Free Course: https://www.dadsdefispace.org/challenges

• Zora Creator Coin: https://zora.co/dadsdefispace

• 📲 Base App: https://base.app/profile/dadsdefispace

• 🏦 LBank (affiliate, disclosed): https://lbank.com/ref/5IPGV

Everything is optional.Everything is on-chain.Everything can change.

This market doesn’t need bold predictions.It needs calm operators with a plan.

That’s the role DADS DeFi SPACE plays.

⚠️ Disclaimer: This content is for entertainment and informational purposes only and should not be taken as financial, legal, or tax advice. All opinions are my own — I’m not a licensed financial or investment advisor. Crypto and DeFi involve significant risk. Always do your own research.

©️ 2025 DAD DEFI SPACE

Bias: Neutral → Defensive (Risk-Off Shift)

Markets don’t usually break when people are calm.They break when leverage, narratives, and confidence all stack on top of each other.

Over the last 48 hours, we’ve seen something important shift:

• Macro headlines started driving price more than on-chain fundamentals

• Over-leveraged positions were forcefully flushed

• Capital didn’t leave crypto — it rotated back to stablecoins!

This report documents what actually changed, what didn’t, and how I’m thinking about risk without chasing noise.

No predictions.No hype.Just structure, levels, and probabilities.

The current market environment has shifted from neutral to defensive. Bitcoin was trading below 89K multiple times today and a revist to the lower 80Kregion is entirely possible.

• Geopolitical tension around US–EU trade escalated quickly

• Trump’s proposed 10–25% tariffs on NATO allies shocked traditional markets

• Crypto reacted with equities, not independently

• Bitcoin lost short-term support

• Ethereum struggled to hold key levels

• Over-leveraged longs were wiped out

• Market Bias: Risk-Off

• Opportunity: Cleaner, deleveraged entry zones

• Risk: Contagion if BTC loses the $90k region decisively (we are already below now)

That's why we implemented short hedges on LBank using the leverage Perps platform. Click the link below to take advantage of deposit bonuses and receive a 15% discount on your trading fees (thanks to DADSDEFISPACE). Additionally, you'll gain free access to my new Premium trading group.

20% DEPOSIT BONUS | 15% OFF TRADING FEES FOR PR GROUP ACCESS

https://lbank.com/ref/5IPGV

📢 Free Telegram Group: https://t.me/DADSDefiSpace

Understanding the regime prevents overreaction.

• 48 (Neutral)

• Fell sharply from 72 (Greed) in one day

• This tells us sentiment reset faster than price

• BTC Season (28)

• Alts are bleeding harder than Bitcoin

• Capital is seeking the “hardest” asset first

• 59.2% and rising

• A classic risk-off behavior

• Bitcoin leads during uncertainty

Trend:

• Short-term: Bearish

• Higher timeframe: Still Bullish

Key Levels

• Support: $89,500 → $86,000 (FIGHTING FOR THIS RIGHT NOW)

• Resistance: $93,300 → $98,000

Invalidation

• A daily close below $85,000 flips the mid-term structure bearish

Bitcoin breaking $93k wasn’t “the end.”It was leverage getting punished.

What matters now is how price behaves around $89–90k.

Ethereum (ETH)

Trend: Range-bound

Key Levels

• Support: $3,150 → $3,000

• Resistance: $3,500 → $3,850

Relative Risk

• If ETH/BTC loses 0.032, expect continued underperformance

ETH doesn’t usually lead during macro stress.Patience here is not weakness — it’s discipline.

This was not a random dump.

• $500M liquidated in 24 hours

• $124M in BTC longs alone

• A textbook short squeeze

• Open interest dropped from $90B → ~$65B

• “Tourist leverage” was removed

• Funding rates reset to neutral

• Strong buy walls around $88,500

• If that fails, next major cluster sits near $82,000

This is painful — but structurally healthy.

Despite price weakness, on-chain data is constructive.

Solana

• Approaching $10B TVL

• Holding up due to ETF speculation and real usage

Sui

• Surpassed $2B TVL

• Fastest-growing L1

• Institutional interest from Grayscale and Franklin Templeton

Base

• Steady at $1.5B+ TVL

• Highest active address growth

• SocialFi is driving usage, not farming incentives

Stable Yield Watch

• Mountain Protocol (USDM): ~5.2% (T-bill backed, rebasing)

Pendle

• PT-eETH pools now offering 15–20% fixed

• Yield compression is already underway

Yield exists — but only for those who manage risk.

Sentiment right now is reactive, not thoughtful.

• “Greenland Standoff”

• Tariff escalation

• Macro fear cycles

• Zora mints shifting toward political satire & identity

• Creator coins consolidating after speculation

• Base App engagement remains high

Confidence Score: 0.65People expect dips to be bought — but they’re nervous.

• Jan 20, 2026: Trump tariff threats trigger sell-off

• Jan 21, 2026: Solana Mobile airdrop claims open (expect volatility)

• Q1 2026: Base token speculation accelerating

• Q2 2026: Aerodrome + Velodrome merger → “Aero” liquidity hub

Catalysts don’t guarantee direction — they increase volatility.

• BTC holds $89k

• Macro tension cools at Davos

• Reclaim of $93,300 confirms strength

• Chop between $88k–$92k

• Market digests macro shock

• Builders keep building

• BTC loses $88k

• Liquidations cascade to ~$82k

• Actual tariff implementation escalates risk

Invalidation matters more than conviction.

• Momentum: Neutral to Bearish

• Catalysts:

  • Morgan Stanley spot ETF filing

  • Western Union stablecoin (H1 2026)

  • Alpenglow upgrade (150ms finality)

• Momentum: Strong

• Catalyst: $2B TVL + Phantom wallet support

• Strategy: Watch and see

• Momentum: Corrective Hold

• Catalyst: Velodrome merger → $500M+ TVL consolidation

• Narrative: Base’s liquidity engine

• Short-term: Bearish

• Long-term: Bullish

• Focus: Monetization-heavy subnets, not hype staking yield to counteract volitility

• Zora transitioning to content-coin model

• $DADSDEFISPACE remains community coordination layer for our presense in WEB3 and on Base

Part of the $DADSDEFISPACE ecosystem.

🔗 https://zora.co/coin/base:0x3dcefb54e60579b08f7a845bde6497b62d483a2a?referrer=0x477ef3302f75f3fc86c7b2d68df426a1bda33878

• Mobile-first Web3 narrative growing

• Exploring burning and other techniques to grow ecosystem and show conviction.

Base token speculation is reaching critical mass.

• Volume > wallet count

• Use of Base App

• Creating Communiities

• Building & Creating (Zora offer a way to do this)

• Trading Base tokens

• Repeated usage > one-off interactions

• ETH network usage > stablecoin farming (But im doing both)

• Use official Base Bridge

• LP and swap consistently

• Engage socially (Base App, Farcaster)

• Base L2

• Backpack

• Polymarket

• OpenSea (longer-term)

• SAIL (AI Agent Stablecoin Yield)

Nothing guaranteed.Everything optional.

• Watching: BTC $89,500 will it recliam 90000

• If reclaimed: I’ll reassess SUI and AERO and ETH

• If lost: Capital preservation comes first

Macro-driven moves are often irrational.Let the liquidations finish.

If you want to follow along as this plays out:

• 📢 Telegram: https://t.me/DADSDefiSpace

• Free Course: https://www.dadsdefispace.org/challenges

• Zora Creator Coin: https://zora.co/dadsdefispace

• 📲 Base App: https://base.app/profile/dadsdefispace

• 🏦 LBank (affiliate, disclosed): https://lbank.com/ref/5IPGV

Everything is optional.Everything is on-chain.Everything can change.

This market doesn’t need bold predictions.It needs calm operators with a plan.

That’s the role DADS DeFi SPACE plays.

⚠️ Disclaimer: This content is for entertainment and informational purposes only and should not be taken as financial, legal, or tax advice. All opinions are my own — I’m not a licensed financial or investment advisor. Crypto and DeFi involve significant risk. Always do your own research.

©️ 2025 DAD DEFI SPACE