Educational only. On-chain. Subject to change.

The market feels broken right now — but it isn’t.

What we’re actually seeing is a structural reset. A violent one. The kind that only happens a few times per cycle, when leverage gets flushed, narratives collapse, and conviction gets tested.

Bitcoin is down over 45% from the October highs. Alts are bleeding. Social sentiment is exhausted. And yet… some things don’t line up if you zoom out.

This post is me documenting how I’m thinking, how I’m positioned, and why I’m not rushing anything, even with Fear & Greed pinned at single digits.

Not predictions.
Not promises.
Just process.

Bitcoin is currently trading around $68–69k, hovering after a deep drawdown from the $126k peak. That alone has people calling for everything from “cycle over” to “generational buy.”

Here’s the context that matters:

• Fear & Greed Index: 9 (Extreme Fear)
  This is real panic. Not Twitter drama — actual statistical fear.

• ETF Flows: Despite retail capitulation, US spot BTC ETFs saw ~$145M in net inflows earlier this week.

• Interpretation: Retail is frozen. Institutions are nibbling.

That divergence matters.

It doesn’t mean the bottom is in. It does mean forced selling is largely behind us, and the market is transitioning from liquidation to "now its time to make up my mind".

I’m viewing this market through one primary lens:

This is a bear-market environment until proven otherwise.

That means:

• Rallies are counter-trend

• Strength is sold, not chased

• Longs are tactical, not conviction

• Shorts remain the structural bias

I don’t need to predict the exact low, but I need to avoid being wrong in size and direction.

Bitcoin has absorbed a massive amount of selling pressure, including:

• Derivatives washouts

• ETF basis trade unwinds

• Macro uncertainty

I've neever witnesses selling of this magnitude in my almost 6 years investing and trading crypto assets. Technically, we’re sitting in a zone where two things can be true:

• This could be a cycle-defining bottom *(I truly don't beleive this, but its possible)

• Or just a pause or recovery bounce before another leg lower

Key levels I’m watching:

• $65k: Weekly structure + psychological line

• $72–75k: Short-squeeze zone if panic eases

• $80k: Major resistance and pain trade target

If $65k holds, a squeeze toward $80k is very possible, but that 80K level will be difficult to break through— not because things are “bullish,” but because the market hates consensus.

This is where theory meets execution.

• Entered into strength earlier

• Currently deep in profit

• Position size reduced

• Runner still open

This is a structure trade, not a prediction. As long as BTC remains below key moving averages, I’m not in a hurry to flip long.

IF you want to know my all my other defi moves and trades while, they happen consider joining my PREMIUM group. ITs Free! all I ask is you sign up and on one my my partner exchanges

20% DEPOSIT BONUS | 15% Trading Fees FOR PR GROUP ACCESS                          

📢LBank Exchange→  https://lbank.com/ref/5IPGV  

📢Blofin Exchange $5000 USDT Rewards →https://partner.blofin.com/d/DADSDeFiSpace

📢 Free Telegram: https://t.me/DADSDefiSpace   DM me on Telegram @DADDEFI1013 for Premium Group Access with the phrase "DEFI DAD"

Free Course: https://www.dadsdefispace.org/challenges  

👨‍🏫 https://x.com/cryptozone1013

Ethereum & L2s: Rotation, Not Leadership

ETH continues to underperform BTC, struggling near the $2,000 level. That’s not surprising in a fear-driven environment — capital hides in the most liquid asset first.

What is interesting:

• ETH mainnet activity is soft

• L2s like Base continue to attract users, TVL is trending up on Base, even with the Zora FID and Base App "trading Pivot"

• Zora has quietly rebounded ~13%, helped by auto sell and better tooling

This isn’t altseason.
It’s selective survival.

And remember Bear Markets are for Building

TAO around $157 is painful to watch — especially with the Big Tech AI FUD dominating headlines.

But the important distinction:

• Price is weak

• Network activity is growing

That disconnect usually resolves — but not on your timeline.

I’m not chasing AI bounces yet. I want:

• Base formation

• Volume confirmation

• Fewer narratives, more structure

First, I still am a b ielver in the 4 - Year Cycle, I also believe the Bear Market will be shorter, and last drastic than what we've seen in the past. But as a believer, this year is the "down" year, we a usual start of a new cycle in Q4.

Right now, I’m doing a few very unsexy things:

• Staying mostly short-biased; Although, looking to long some alts on a strong recovery bounce, but "DAD" beleives we are going lower.

• Taking profits where they exist

• Avoiding oversized longs

• Watching BTC structure above $65k closely

• Letting Fear do its job

No hero trades.
No panic.
No “this time is different.”The Bigger Picture

2026 fits the historical winter phase of the 4-year cycle. That doesn’t mean “crypto is dead.” It means:

• Leverage resets

• Bad projects disappear

• Good systems keep running

• Education compounds quietly

The most important skill in this phase isn’t timing — it’s survivability.

Markets don’t reward urgency in moments like this. But they punish those who are impatient.

They reward:

• Humility

• Risk control

• And the willingness to say, “I don’t know yet.”

That’s where I’m at.

I’ll keep documenting decisions as they evolve — including when I’m screw it up.

Everything here is educational.
Everything is on-chain.
Everything is subject to change.

— Kevin
DADS DeFi Space

⚠️ This is not financial advice. Always DYOR.

💬 Farcaster: https://farcaster.xyz/thecaptain1013  

📲 Base App Profile: https://base.app/profile/dadsdefispace

JOIN us on BASE APP https://base.app/invite/dadsdefispace/62YVZ0B3 

Community Coin: $DADSDEFISPACE  

🔗 Contract: 0x11c77e7a39c80e00f1c15bfb5f394e7b7e9a50c6  

🌐Creator Coin on Zora: https://zora.co/dadsdefispace   

Create your own token: https://zora.co/invite/dadsdefispace

Join us on ZORA

Educational only. On-chain. Subject to change.

The market feels broken right now — but it isn’t.

What we’re actually seeing is a structural reset. A violent one. The kind that only happens a few times per cycle, when leverage gets flushed, narratives collapse, and conviction gets tested.

Bitcoin is down over 45% from the October highs. Alts are bleeding. Social sentiment is exhausted. And yet… some things don’t line up if you zoom out.

This post is me documenting how I’m thinking, how I’m positioned, and why I’m not rushing anything, even with Fear & Greed pinned at single digits.

Not predictions.
Not promises.
Just process.

Bitcoin is currently trading around $68–69k, hovering after a deep drawdown from the $126k peak. That alone has people calling for everything from “cycle over” to “generational buy.”

Here’s the context that matters:

• Fear & Greed Index: 9 (Extreme Fear)
  This is real panic. Not Twitter drama — actual statistical fear.

• ETF Flows: Despite retail capitulation, US spot BTC ETFs saw ~$145M in net inflows earlier this week.

• Interpretation: Retail is frozen. Institutions are nibbling.

That divergence matters.

It doesn’t mean the bottom is in. It does mean forced selling is largely behind us, and the market is transitioning from liquidation to "now its time to make up my mind".

I’m viewing this market through one primary lens:

This is a bear-market environment until proven otherwise.

That means:

• Rallies are counter-trend

• Strength is sold, not chased

• Longs are tactical, not conviction

• Shorts remain the structural bias

I don’t need to predict the exact low, but I need to avoid being wrong in size and direction.

Bitcoin has absorbed a massive amount of selling pressure, including:

• Derivatives washouts

• ETF basis trade unwinds

• Macro uncertainty

I've neever witnesses selling of this magnitude in my almost 6 years investing and trading crypto assets. Technically, we’re sitting in a zone where two things can be true:

• This could be a cycle-defining bottom *(I truly don't beleive this, but its possible)

• Or just a pause or recovery bounce before another leg lower

Key levels I’m watching:

• $65k: Weekly structure + psychological line

• $72–75k: Short-squeeze zone if panic eases

• $80k: Major resistance and pain trade target

If $65k holds, a squeeze toward $80k is very possible, but that 80K level will be difficult to break through— not because things are “bullish,” but because the market hates consensus.

This is where theory meets execution.

• Entered into strength earlier

• Currently deep in profit

• Position size reduced

• Runner still open

This is a structure trade, not a prediction. As long as BTC remains below key moving averages, I’m not in a hurry to flip long.

IF you want to know my all my other defi moves and trades while, they happen consider joining my PREMIUM group. ITs Free! all I ask is you sign up and on one my my partner exchanges

20% DEPOSIT BONUS | 15% Trading Fees FOR PR GROUP ACCESS                          

📢LBank Exchange→  https://lbank.com/ref/5IPGV  

📢Blofin Exchange $5000 USDT Rewards →https://partner.blofin.com/d/DADSDeFiSpace

📢 Free Telegram: https://t.me/DADSDefiSpace   DM me on Telegram @DADDEFI1013 for Premium Group Access with the phrase "DEFI DAD"

Free Course: https://www.dadsdefispace.org/challenges  

👨‍🏫 https://x.com/cryptozone1013

Ethereum & L2s: Rotation, Not Leadership

ETH continues to underperform BTC, struggling near the $2,000 level. That’s not surprising in a fear-driven environment — capital hides in the most liquid asset first.

What is interesting:

• ETH mainnet activity is soft

• L2s like Base continue to attract users, TVL is trending up on Base, even with the Zora FID and Base App "trading Pivot"

• Zora has quietly rebounded ~13%, helped by auto sell and better tooling

This isn’t altseason.
It’s selective survival.

And remember Bear Markets are for Building

TAO around $157 is painful to watch — especially with the Big Tech AI FUD dominating headlines.

But the important distinction:

• Price is weak

• Network activity is growing

That disconnect usually resolves — but not on your timeline.

I’m not chasing AI bounces yet. I want:

• Base formation

• Volume confirmation

• Fewer narratives, more structure

First, I still am a b ielver in the 4 - Year Cycle, I also believe the Bear Market will be shorter, and last drastic than what we've seen in the past. But as a believer, this year is the "down" year, we a usual start of a new cycle in Q4.

Right now, I’m doing a few very unsexy things:

• Staying mostly short-biased; Although, looking to long some alts on a strong recovery bounce, but "DAD" beleives we are going lower.

• Taking profits where they exist

• Avoiding oversized longs

• Watching BTC structure above $65k closely

• Letting Fear do its job

No hero trades.
No panic.
No “this time is different.”The Bigger Picture

2026 fits the historical winter phase of the 4-year cycle. That doesn’t mean “crypto is dead.” It means:

• Leverage resets

• Bad projects disappear

• Good systems keep running

• Education compounds quietly

The most important skill in this phase isn’t timing — it’s survivability.

Markets don’t reward urgency in moments like this. But they punish those who are impatient.

They reward:

• Humility

• Risk control

• And the willingness to say, “I don’t know yet.”

That’s where I’m at.

I’ll keep documenting decisions as they evolve — including when I’m screw it up.

Everything here is educational.
Everything is on-chain.
Everything is subject to change.

— Kevin
DADS DeFi Space

⚠️ This is not financial advice. Always DYOR.

💬 Farcaster: https://farcaster.xyz/thecaptain1013  

📲 Base App Profile: https://base.app/profile/dadsdefispace

JOIN us on BASE APP https://base.app/invite/dadsdefispace/62YVZ0B3 

Community Coin: $DADSDEFISPACE  

🔗 Contract: 0x11c77e7a39c80e00f1c15bfb5f394e7b7e9a50c6  

🌐Creator Coin on Zora: https://zora.co/dadsdefispace   

Create your own token: https://zora.co/invite/dadsdefispace

Join us on ZORA