For anyone still unsure where we are in the cycle, let’s slow this down and zoom out.

Not emotionally.
Not narratively.
Structurally.

Because Bitcoin has already shown us this movie before the last 3 cycles. (Yes we still beleieve in the 4 year cycle here).

In every prior Bitcoin bear market, price has followed a remarkably similar sequence. Different headlines, different catalysts — same structure.

The order matters:

1. Price breaks the Bull Market Support Band
   This is usually where optimism first cracks.

2. The 50-Week Moving Average is lost
   Momentum shifts. Bounces turn into relief rallies.

3. Price chops around the 100-Week Moving Average
   This is the “hope phase” — volatile, frustrating, indecisive.

4. Final capitulation toward the 200-Week Moving Average
   Not always violent. Often slow. Exhausting. Boring.

That sequence isn’t theory.
It’s math, liquidity, and psychology repeating.

And right now?

Bitcoin is doing it again.

Notice what isn’t happening:

• No full-blown panic yet

• No total collapse

• No universal capitulation

Instead, Bitcoin is grinding lower, not crashing.

That’s actually typical.

Bear markets don’t end when people are scared.
They end when people are tired.

Tired of waiting.
Tired of hoping.
Tired of buying dips that don’t bounce.

That’s usually when the final leg completes.

Based on historical structure alone — not hype, not vibes — the math points toward a $58k–$65k zone as a realistic area of interest.

Possibly lower.

That doesn’t mean it must happen.
It means it’s structurally reasonable.

And that’s not what most people want to hear.

But markets don’t exist to make us comfortable.

Bear markets don’t end when bulls are loud.

They end when:

• the last bull is exhausted

• conviction turns into apathy

• “long-term holder” becomes “I don’t care anymore”

That’s when supply finally transfers.

That’s when opportunity quietly shows up.

This isn’t a call to short.
It’s not a call to panic sell.
It’s not financial advice.

It’s a reminder to:

• manage risk

• stop forcing narratives

• respect market structure

• build a plan that survives multiple cycles

If you don’t have a plan for sideways and down markets, you don’t actually have a plan.

Not because I’m right — but because structure repeats.

You’ll thank yourself later.

If you want to learn how I think through markets in real time, here are a few places to plug in — no pressure:

💬 Free Telegram (market context + discussion)
https://t.me/DADSDefiSpace

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https://www.dadsdefispace.org/challenges

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https://x.com/cryptozone1013

💬 Farcaster (Web3-native discussion)
https://farcaster.xyz/thecaptain1013

📲 Base App Profile (on-chain presence)
https://base.app/profile/dadsdefispace
👉 Join on Base: https://base.app/invite/dadsdefispace/62YVZ0B3

📰 Web3 Newsletter (this journal lives here)
https://paragraph.com/@daddefispace

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Contract: 0x11c77e7a39c80e00f1c15bfb5f394e7b7e9a50c6
Zora Profile: https://zora.co/dadsdefispace
Create your own token: https://zora.co/invite/dadsdefispace

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(Use only if appropriate. Risk always comes first.)

This is an educational market journal.
Not financial advice.
Markets are experimental.
Everything is subject to change.

Stay skeptical.
Stay patient.
Stay on-chain.

— Kevin
DADS DeFi Space