Observing the recent global macro trend, the development of many events inevitably gives people the feeling of "walking a tightrope". The Omicron epidemic is walking a tightrope, inflation is walking a tightrope, currency overload and interest rate hike are walking a tightrope, and the Ukrainian war is also walking a tightrope under the mutual threat between the United States and Russia. These add up, of course, will give people a feeling that 2022 may not be peaceful. In recent months, the biggest short-term impact on the market under the macro situation is not too much. It seems urgent to raise interest rates under the threat of inflation. Since vicious inflation (inflation rate exceeds 5%) has lasted for seven months, the public opinion of raising interest rates is becoming stronger and stronger. Now some officials of the Federal Reserve claim that they may raise interest rates seven times in the year. This completely irrational and extremely stupid possible statement in economics is an insult to the public's intelligence. It's very bullshit, but it's so grandly declared that you can simply imagine that you have to raise interest rates seven times. You might as well raise interest rates three to four times. Isn't it OK to raise interest rates a little higher each time? Otherwise, if the interest rate is raised less than once in two months, the effect of the last time can not be judged. What is not bullshit? This is what the Fed calls "expectation management" in raising interest rates. In fact, it is bluffing first to influence the market and win time. In fact, no matter how many times the interest rate is increased, the space for interest rate increase can be estimated. The current annual interest rate in the United States is about 0.25%, close to zero interest rate. The largest interest rate increase space is expected to reach 2.25% at most, that is, there is a 2% interest rate increase space in the middle. At present, the national debt of the United States is $29.8 trillion. Increasing the interest rate by 2% will increase the interest expenditure of $600 billion a year. The annual fiscal revenue of the U.S. government is about $3.5 trillion +, that is, $600 billion, and the interest rate is roughly equivalent to one sixth of the U.S. fiscal revenue. If you increase the interest rate, the day will not pass - the U.S. military spends $720 billion a year, and the new interest rate of 2% is close to raising another U.S. military. Can the United States afford it now? To put it bluntly, if there is a choice, the interest rate increase will eventually increase by 1%. I'm afraid the blues think it is close to the psychological limit of the U.S. government. And "Wall Street America" is extremely reluctant to raise interest rates. If you have a little in-depth understanding of the United States, you can find that the interest rate in the United States exceeded 19% in the 1980s, but then the interest rate continued to decline and could not go back. Why? Because the U.S. financial industry had not experienced large-scale mergers in those years, the gap between the rich and the poor was not as severe as it is now, and people held a lot of cash. Later, financial monopoly capital gradually dried up a number of small banks, the monopoly alliance of large financial institutions controlled the financial industry, and legislation prohibited people from having a large amount of cash. So the reason is very simple. Since financial capital has got people's cash in hand in various ways, why do you spend so much capital and share a lot of profits? Profits are retained in the upper class. The investment of the middle class can obtain an annual return of 4% ~ 5%, even if it burns Gaoxiang, so it can't go back to that era. In this context, raising interest rates is not terrible, but capital makes waves in the market - not to mention raising interest rates seven times, even if it is increased 12 times, how much interest rate has been added in the end? Therefore, it is not easy to suppress inflation. After all, since the outbreak, the Fed's balance sheet has increased from $4 trillion to $8.7 trillion, a full increase of $4.7 trillion. Such a huge amount of dollar increment will always be reflected in the market in the end. In addition to the epidemic and supply chain crisis, vicious inflation may continue for some time. "Currency hyperinflation + inflation" is a typical social cancer that lasts for 4-5 years. For ordinary people, if the salary does not rise, the income will be halved. According to historical data, some people speculate that after this wave of crisis, the proportion of the middle class in the United States is likely to fall below 1 / 3, and the middle class will become less. Based on the current situation, there may be two black swans in 2022. Now people are anxiously waiting for their occurrence or extinction. The first is the next development of the new crown Omicron epidemic. At present, there are both optimistic and pessimistic views. Optimistic, for example, Dr. Zhang Wenhong of Shanghai believes that it is likely to be the last wave, and the new crown may gradually die out like the 1918 pandemic, because although Omicron spreads rapidly, its toxicity has weakened. But there are also pessimistic ones. They do not think that the new crown will die out naturally or the toxicity will gradually decrease. Instead, they consider that if there is another wave of new strains every four months after Omicron, many patients with new crown will have serious sequelae. In the early stage, many people have been infected twice or even three times. People's bodies can't bear the epidemic waves, and the mortality may increase greatly in the future, It will be a great disaster. There is still a lot of uncertainty about what will happen, at least for now. The second is the Ukrainian war. At present, Russia and the United States are very resolute and deploy troops. The risk of conflict is very high. Russia can't retreat. NATO is blocking the door. The United States is pressing step by step - in any case, the incident can completely destroy Russia Europe relations and zero the possibility of establishing good relations between Russia and Europe through energy trade, while American energy, such as natural gas, can be sold to Europe on a large scale, avoiding the disadvantage that it was unable to compete with Russian natural gas due to high transportation costs. Therefore, American oil groups are the black hands behind the conflict in Ukraine promoted by the United States, and financial groups also need European capital to flee to the United States to tray American assets. The United States has a strong motivation. Ukraine is at the core of Europe. In case of war, its influence is far from that of other regional wars and conflicts such as the Middle East. Based on the above discussion, I think that the real shock brought by the interest rate hike and the Fed's table contraction in 2022 is limited, and the space for each interest rate hike will be absolutely limited. Biden's series of plans to expand government spending will make the Fed's table contraction a "frozen table" and will not increase. Liquidity will remain loose and even be forced to expand at a low speed, In order to alleviate the people's dissatisfaction under vicious inflation, I'm afraid there are still salary increases and subsidies, not to mention the mid-term election in the United States in October 2022. The Biden government still has to strive for vote support. I'm afraid the really strict policies will be delayed until after October 2022. Therefore, in 2022, according to the historical law of the United States, the US stock and currency markets are still in a relatively strong macro environment and will not encounter severe policies and capital turns. Based on this, I still believe that there will be a good market in 2022. The above is the Blues' analysis of the current macro overall situation and the overall discussion of the annual market. Seeing the world with insight makes money with cognition. The words of a family are for reference only. Standing in the future and looking at the present, blues feels the wind of the times with you!

Observing the recent global macro trend, the development of many events inevitably gives people the feeling of "walking a tightrope". The Omicron epidemic is walking a tightrope, inflation is walking a tightrope, currency overload and interest rate hike are walking a tightrope, and the Ukrainian war is also walking a tightrope under the mutual threat between the United States and Russia. These add up, of course, will give people a feeling that 2022 may not be peaceful. In recent months, the biggest short-term impact on the market under the macro situation is not too much. It seems urgent to raise interest rates under the threat of inflation. Since vicious inflation (inflation rate exceeds 5%) has lasted for seven months, the public opinion of raising interest rates is becoming stronger and stronger. Now some officials of the Federal Reserve claim that they may raise interest rates seven times in the year. This completely irrational and extremely stupid possible statement in economics is an insult to the public's intelligence. It's very bullshit, but it's so grandly declared that you can simply imagine that you have to raise interest rates seven times. You might as well raise interest rates three to four times. Isn't it OK to raise interest rates a little higher each time? Otherwise, if the interest rate is raised less than once in two months, the effect of the last time can not be judged. What is not bullshit? This is what the Fed calls "expectation management" in raising interest rates. In fact, it is bluffing first to influence the market and win time. In fact, no matter how many times the interest rate is increased, the space for interest rate increase can be estimated. The current annual interest rate in the United States is about 0.25%, close to zero interest rate. The largest interest rate increase space is expected to reach 2.25% at most, that is, there is a 2% interest rate increase space in the middle. At present, the national debt of the United States is $29.8 trillion. Increasing the interest rate by 2% will increase the interest expenditure of $600 billion a year. The annual fiscal revenue of the U.S. government is about $3.5 trillion +, that is, $600 billion, and the interest rate is roughly equivalent to one sixth of the U.S. fiscal revenue. If you increase the interest rate, the day will not pass - the U.S. military spends $720 billion a year, and the new interest rate of 2% is close to raising another U.S. military. Can the United States afford it now? To put it bluntly, if there is a choice, the interest rate increase will eventually increase by 1%. I'm afraid the blues think it is close to the psychological limit of the U.S. government. And "Wall Street America" is extremely reluctant to raise interest rates. If you have a little in-depth understanding of the United States, you can find that the interest rate in the United States exceeded 19% in the 1980s, but then the interest rate continued to decline and could not go back. Why? Because the U.S. financial industry had not experienced large-scale mergers in those years, the gap between the rich and the poor was not as severe as it is now, and people held a lot of cash. Later, financial monopoly capital gradually dried up a number of small banks, the monopoly alliance of large financial institutions controlled the financial industry, and legislation prohibited people from having a large amount of cash. So the reason is very simple. Since financial capital has got people's cash in hand in various ways, why do you spend so much capital and share a lot of profits? Profits are retained in the upper class. The investment of the middle class can obtain an annual return of 4% ~ 5%, even if it burns Gaoxiang, so it can't go back to that era. In this context, raising interest rates is not terrible, but capital makes waves in the market - not to mention raising interest rates seven times, even if it is increased 12 times, how much interest rate has been added in the end? Therefore, it is not easy to suppress inflation. After all, since the outbreak, the Fed's balance sheet has increased from $4 trillion to $8.7 trillion, a full increase of $4.7 trillion. Such a huge amount of dollar increment will always be reflected in the market in the end. In addition to the epidemic and supply chain crisis, vicious inflation may continue for some time. "Currency hyperinflation + inflation" is a typical social cancer that lasts for 4-5 years. For ordinary people, if the salary does not rise, the income will be halved. According to historical data, some people speculate that after this wave of crisis, the proportion of the middle class in the United States is likely to fall below 1 / 3, and the middle class will become less. Based on the current situation, there may be two black swans in 2022. Now people are anxiously waiting for their occurrence or extinction. The first is the next development of the new crown Omicron epidemic. At present, there are both optimistic and pessimistic views. Optimistic, for example, Dr. Zhang Wenhong of Shanghai believes that it is likely to be the last wave, and the new crown may gradually die out like the 1918 pandemic, because although Omicron spreads rapidly, its toxicity has weakened. But there are also pessimistic ones. They do not think that the new crown will die out naturally or the toxicity will gradually decrease. Instead, they consider that if there is another wave of new strains every four months after Omicron, many patients with new crown will have serious sequelae. In the early stage, many people have been infected twice or even three times. People's bodies can't bear the epidemic waves, and the mortality may increase greatly in the future, It will be a great disaster. There is still a lot of uncertainty about what will happen, at least for now. The second is the Ukrainian war. At present, Russia and the United States are very resolute and deploy troops. The risk of conflict is very high. Russia can't retreat. NATO is blocking the door. The United States is pressing step by step - in any case, the incident can completely destroy Russia Europe relations and zero the possibility of establishing good relations between Russia and Europe through energy trade, while American energy, such as natural gas, can be sold to Europe on a large scale, avoiding the disadvantage that it was unable to compete with Russian natural gas due to high transportation costs. Therefore, American oil groups are the black hands behind the conflict in Ukraine promoted by the United States, and financial groups also need European capital to flee to the United States to tray American assets. The United States has a strong motivation. Ukraine is at the core of Europe. In case of war, its influence is far from that of other regional wars and conflicts such as the Middle East. Based on the above discussion, I think that the real shock brought by the interest rate hike and the Fed's table contraction in 2022 is limited, and the space for each interest rate hike will be absolutely limited. Biden's series of plans to expand government spending will make the Fed's table contraction a "frozen table" and will not increase. Liquidity will remain loose and even be forced to expand at a low speed, In order to alleviate the people's dissatisfaction under vicious inflation, I'm afraid there are still salary increases and subsidies, not to mention the mid-term election in the United States in October 2022. The Biden government still has to strive for vote support. I'm afraid the really strict policies will be delayed until after October 2022. Therefore, in 2022, according to the historical law of the United States, the US stock and currency markets are still in a relatively strong macro environment and will not encounter severe policies and capital turns. Based on this, I still believe that there will be a good market in 2022. The above is the Blues' analysis of the current macro overall situation and the overall discussion of the annual market. Seeing the world with insight makes money with cognition. The words of a family are for reference only. Standing in the future and looking at the present, blues feels the wind of the times with you!