We invested 2 Chimps for 9sols each and another 100USDC on NANA at 0.015. The below-offered strategies are catered to our personality and condition. We are just looking into what we think is the best Heist Strategy. We do not encourage anyone to overinvest. 

Since The Heist’s launch, the prices of its NFT spiked from 8sol to 19sol, its token - NANA, reached 120kSOL in volume, and it has over 80% NFTs locked inside the game (Dated 24th April). The game had good momentum. Even though its floor prices dropped back to 10 Sol, listing and trading volume are still low, and almost all NFTs are locked in-game. Check Edgar’s panel for more on-chain info.

https://flipsidecrypto.xyz/crypto_edgar/the-heist-YkHaYX

This article will explain how the game is designed and lay out some calculations and strategies that we use (mainly focus on Chimps strategies, but Gorrillas can reverse some factors and calculate their own rates). 

There are two species in Peel City, Chimps, and Gorillas. Chimps make their livings by robbing NANA in different locations, whereas Gorillas are the law enforcers that catch Chimps. There are three places where NANA can be generated: Federal Reserve, Downtown, and City Bank. In each location, 67K NANA will be generated per hour. Chimps can earn NANAs by pulling up a successful heist, but when they fumble, they lost NANA, which will be shared by the Gorillas stationed onsite. Chimps can also Rob the Gas Station for Items, which provides Chimps with extra stats. 

Robbery at the gas station is a simple game about randomness, but the NANA Heist relies heavily on strategies. The success of a heist is determined by possibilities at the corresponding location. There are 8 events, which can be divided into positives and negatives. Within the group of positive events, your Chimps can earn up to 10x the original NANA. If you get fumble, you will lose all that NANA. Confiscated, the equipped items will be lost along with NANA. Even worse, if you get arrested, not only will you lose your items and NANA, but the Chimp will be jailed at the Police Station. You need to either pay 500 NANA for its release or wait 24 hours. The worst condition, REKT, happens only in the Federal Reserve, for the chances of 0.002%, As the word suggests, your NFT Chimp will be burned FOREVER (One Chimp burned so far). 

Despite different possibilities in each place, every place has a WEIGHT of 1000 on positive effects. For example, here are Federal Reserves and City Bank’s WEIGHT. 

• Federal Reserve: 10*3 + 5*4 + 2*7 + 36*1 = 1000

• City Bank: 10*1 + 5*2 + 2*13 + 54*1 = 1000

To help our calculation, we hypothesize an infinite timeframe. In the infinite timeframe, what the equalized WEIGHT implies is that given the same success rate, you will receive the same amount of rewards. However, each place has a different success and failure rate, and we have to counterbalance the chances of getting a negative event when we calculate the yield rate. 

Federal Reserve has a fail rate of 50%, Down Town at 40%, and City Bank at 30%. Hence, City Bank will always be the optimal place which is also what we are seeing in the game. Most holders place their Chimps in City Banks, then Down Town, and Federal Reserve at last. 

Nonetheless, there is also a game of ZeroSum in place. Every building emits 67K NANA per hour. Everybody heisting in City Bank just means less NANA per Chimp. 

To find the best balance between population and negative events, we can divide the number of Chimps by the chances of positive effects. Assuming we have 2500 Chimps at City Bank and 1500 Chimps at Federal Reserve we have the valenced population:

• 2500/(1-0.3) = 3571.43

• 1500/(1-0.5) = 3000

Obviously, you will face less competition putting Chimps at the Federal Reserve, but we should not make the decision just yet. The negative effects at the Federal Reserve are much worse than the other two places. You have a much higher chance of losing your items, getting locked for 24hrs, and even losing your Chimp forever. To further attend this into consideration, you need to bull-park a risk factor and stack it onto the calculation. For example, we feel the 20% of the incremented risk, which makes the valenced population at 3000*1.2 = 3600, which makes it less awarding than City Bank. This risk factor is purely subjective and you should make up your own numbers depending on how much risk you are willing to take.
The numbers are not finished, We have to deal with the power of Stats.

There are two Stats: Yield and Luck. They give you a bonus on top of the hourly emission. 1 Yield increases your NANA production by 1% and 1 Luck gives you a 1% extra chance of receiving 2x reward. These two bonuses stack on each other and the other positive effects. When you hit 10x, 5x, or 2x in the heist, the Yield increases the corresponding amounts of NANA. When luck strikes you, you will see the same Chimp avatar showing twice summing into 2x the NANA.

You can upgrade Chimps’ stats by burning NANA. Calculating the efficiency of Stats upgrading though, will be a little more complicated, a little bit non-linear. At the start, when Chimp has 0 stats, the first stats increase gives the Chimp 1/100 more NANA. When you increase the stats the second time, although you are getting 1/100 more than the original stats, you are receiving only 1/101 more compared to the last increment. As you upgrade more and more, the effect will be weaker and weaker:

• 1/100, 1/101, 1/102, 1/103, 1/104, 1/105, 1/106…

However, the price for upgrading stats increases as you upgrade more (150 more NANA every 3 levels). Although upgrading always brings you more profit, we must find an in-between spot to maximize your ROI. Our personal sweet spot is Level 9, its ROI pretty much aligns with Chimps’ ROI at the moment. 

You can also gain stats bonuses by equipping items. Safe Crackers give you a ton of Luck and Duffle Bags give you extra Yield, and they can all be obtained from Robbery in Gas Station. It takes 8 hours to complete one robbery and only a 25% success rate of getting anything, but the result is totally worth it. one Duffle Bag worth at least thousands of NANA spent on upgrading, and one Safe Cracker can easily help you save tens of thousands of NANA. 

Although Stats does not really matter when we pick locations, we do need to include them in our ROI calculation. Here is a simple hourly calculation:

• Emission/population*positive_event_rate*stats_bonuses

If we are calculating yield in City Bank where 2500 Chimps are heisting, assuming we only upgraded to level 9 on both Yield and Luck:

• 67000/2500*0.7*1.18 = 22.1368

We came very close to forming our strategies here, just need to get some more information. As pointed out in the previous Location section, each location has different rates of events. Despite City Bank having the lowest rate of negative events, it can be even more dangerous than Federal Reserve.

After 4 hours in the heist, you can order your Chimps to escape. Staying in the heist gives you more NANA, but the negative events worsen every epoch (15 minutes).  Rates of Fumble decrease while rates of confiscation and arrests increase. If you leave your Chimps in the City Bank long enough, you are exposed to more risk of Arrest than 4 hours in Federal Reserve. Check the Gitbook for more info.

https://the-heist.gitbook.io/the-heist/season-1-gameplay/heists/event-table

As mentioned in the Stats section, items can significantly boost our stats and they are extremely hard to obtain. Any negative events beyond Fumbled will cause your items to disappear. That is why we need to consider how to not only maximize positive events but also how to minimize negative events other than Fumbled. 

Here is our strategy, very simple:

1. Place Chimps at the Gas station at night so that we can have a good sleep.

2. Upgrade Chimps to Level 9.  

3. Claim NANA as soon as the 4-hour countdown is finished. 

4. Calculate the population factor EVERYTIME before deploying our Chimps, and always place them in the location with the least population factor.

The Peel City is a jungle. You never know whether the Chimp you are talking to is also a holder of Gorillas waiting to arrest your ass. Be careful in the City, and do not trust others easily. 

** **Huge shoutout to CryptoEdgar for the amazing Analysis panel. The panel has immense data and information on The Heist. 

https://flipsidecrypto.xyz/crypto_edgar/the-heist-YkHaYX

If this article is helpful to you, hit that collect button and follow us on Twitter.

https://twitter.com/davidbigcccc

There is a lot to be offered from the game. The Items market, casino, leaderboard awards, more mints, perks… We look forward to how the game should evolve. But we are more interested in the development of gaming strategy. Never take our words as financial advice.

We invested 2 Chimps for 9sols each and another 100USDC on NANA at 0.015. The below-offered strategies are catered to our personality and condition. We are just looking into what we think is the best Heist Strategy. We do not encourage anyone to overinvest. 

Since The Heist’s launch, the prices of its NFT spiked from 8sol to 19sol, its token - NANA, reached 120kSOL in volume, and it has over 80% NFTs locked inside the game (Dated 24th April). The game had good momentum. Even though its floor prices dropped back to 10 Sol, listing and trading volume are still low, and almost all NFTs are locked in-game. Check Edgar’s panel for more on-chain info.

https://flipsidecrypto.xyz/crypto_edgar/the-heist-YkHaYX

This article will explain how the game is designed and lay out some calculations and strategies that we use (mainly focus on Chimps strategies, but Gorrillas can reverse some factors and calculate their own rates). 

There are two species in Peel City, Chimps, and Gorillas. Chimps make their livings by robbing NANA in different locations, whereas Gorillas are the law enforcers that catch Chimps. There are three places where NANA can be generated: Federal Reserve, Downtown, and City Bank. In each location, 67K NANA will be generated per hour. Chimps can earn NANAs by pulling up a successful heist, but when they fumble, they lost NANA, which will be shared by the Gorillas stationed onsite. Chimps can also Rob the Gas Station for Items, which provides Chimps with extra stats. 

Robbery at the gas station is a simple game about randomness, but the NANA Heist relies heavily on strategies. The success of a heist is determined by possibilities at the corresponding location. There are 8 events, which can be divided into positives and negatives. Within the group of positive events, your Chimps can earn up to 10x the original NANA. If you get fumble, you will lose all that NANA. Confiscated, the equipped items will be lost along with NANA. Even worse, if you get arrested, not only will you lose your items and NANA, but the Chimp will be jailed at the Police Station. You need to either pay 500 NANA for its release or wait 24 hours. The worst condition, REKT, happens only in the Federal Reserve, for the chances of 0.002%, As the word suggests, your NFT Chimp will be burned FOREVER (One Chimp burned so far). 

Despite different possibilities in each place, every place has a WEIGHT of 1000 on positive effects. For example, here are Federal Reserves and City Bank’s WEIGHT. 

• Federal Reserve: 10*3 + 5*4 + 2*7 + 36*1 = 1000

• City Bank: 10*1 + 5*2 + 2*13 + 54*1 = 1000

To help our calculation, we hypothesize an infinite timeframe. In the infinite timeframe, what the equalized WEIGHT implies is that given the same success rate, you will receive the same amount of rewards. However, each place has a different success and failure rate, and we have to counterbalance the chances of getting a negative event when we calculate the yield rate. 

Federal Reserve has a fail rate of 50%, Down Town at 40%, and City Bank at 30%. Hence, City Bank will always be the optimal place which is also what we are seeing in the game. Most holders place their Chimps in City Banks, then Down Town, and Federal Reserve at last. 

Nonetheless, there is also a game of ZeroSum in place. Every building emits 67K NANA per hour. Everybody heisting in City Bank just means less NANA per Chimp. 

To find the best balance between population and negative events, we can divide the number of Chimps by the chances of positive effects. Assuming we have 2500 Chimps at City Bank and 1500 Chimps at Federal Reserve we have the valenced population:

• 2500/(1-0.3) = 3571.43

• 1500/(1-0.5) = 3000

Obviously, you will face less competition putting Chimps at the Federal Reserve, but we should not make the decision just yet. The negative effects at the Federal Reserve are much worse than the other two places. You have a much higher chance of losing your items, getting locked for 24hrs, and even losing your Chimp forever. To further attend this into consideration, you need to bull-park a risk factor and stack it onto the calculation. For example, we feel the 20% of the incremented risk, which makes the valenced population at 3000*1.2 = 3600, which makes it less awarding than City Bank. This risk factor is purely subjective and you should make up your own numbers depending on how much risk you are willing to take.
The numbers are not finished, We have to deal with the power of Stats.

There are two Stats: Yield and Luck. They give you a bonus on top of the hourly emission. 1 Yield increases your NANA production by 1% and 1 Luck gives you a 1% extra chance of receiving 2x reward. These two bonuses stack on each other and the other positive effects. When you hit 10x, 5x, or 2x in the heist, the Yield increases the corresponding amounts of NANA. When luck strikes you, you will see the same Chimp avatar showing twice summing into 2x the NANA.

You can upgrade Chimps’ stats by burning NANA. Calculating the efficiency of Stats upgrading though, will be a little more complicated, a little bit non-linear. At the start, when Chimp has 0 stats, the first stats increase gives the Chimp 1/100 more NANA. When you increase the stats the second time, although you are getting 1/100 more than the original stats, you are receiving only 1/101 more compared to the last increment. As you upgrade more and more, the effect will be weaker and weaker:

• 1/100, 1/101, 1/102, 1/103, 1/104, 1/105, 1/106…

However, the price for upgrading stats increases as you upgrade more (150 more NANA every 3 levels). Although upgrading always brings you more profit, we must find an in-between spot to maximize your ROI. Our personal sweet spot is Level 9, its ROI pretty much aligns with Chimps’ ROI at the moment. 

You can also gain stats bonuses by equipping items. Safe Crackers give you a ton of Luck and Duffle Bags give you extra Yield, and they can all be obtained from Robbery in Gas Station. It takes 8 hours to complete one robbery and only a 25% success rate of getting anything, but the result is totally worth it. one Duffle Bag worth at least thousands of NANA spent on upgrading, and one Safe Cracker can easily help you save tens of thousands of NANA. 

Although Stats does not really matter when we pick locations, we do need to include them in our ROI calculation. Here is a simple hourly calculation:

• Emission/population*positive_event_rate*stats_bonuses

If we are calculating yield in City Bank where 2500 Chimps are heisting, assuming we only upgraded to level 9 on both Yield and Luck:

• 67000/2500*0.7*1.18 = 22.1368

We came very close to forming our strategies here, just need to get some more information. As pointed out in the previous Location section, each location has different rates of events. Despite City Bank having the lowest rate of negative events, it can be even more dangerous than Federal Reserve.

After 4 hours in the heist, you can order your Chimps to escape. Staying in the heist gives you more NANA, but the negative events worsen every epoch (15 minutes).  Rates of Fumble decrease while rates of confiscation and arrests increase. If you leave your Chimps in the City Bank long enough, you are exposed to more risk of Arrest than 4 hours in Federal Reserve. Check the Gitbook for more info.

https://the-heist.gitbook.io/the-heist/season-1-gameplay/heists/event-table

As mentioned in the Stats section, items can significantly boost our stats and they are extremely hard to obtain. Any negative events beyond Fumbled will cause your items to disappear. That is why we need to consider how to not only maximize positive events but also how to minimize negative events other than Fumbled. 

Here is our strategy, very simple:

1. Place Chimps at the Gas station at night so that we can have a good sleep.

2. Upgrade Chimps to Level 9.  

3. Claim NANA as soon as the 4-hour countdown is finished. 

4. Calculate the population factor EVERYTIME before deploying our Chimps, and always place them in the location with the least population factor.

The Peel City is a jungle. You never know whether the Chimp you are talking to is also a holder of Gorillas waiting to arrest your ass. Be careful in the City, and do not trust others easily. 

** **Huge shoutout to CryptoEdgar for the amazing Analysis panel. The panel has immense data and information on The Heist. 

https://flipsidecrypto.xyz/crypto_edgar/the-heist-YkHaYX

If this article is helpful to you, hit that collect button and follow us on Twitter.

https://twitter.com/davidbigcccc

There is a lot to be offered from the game. The Items market, casino, leaderboard awards, more mints, perks… We look forward to how the game should evolve. But we are more interested in the development of gaming strategy. Never take our words as financial advice.