If you had to pick one image to sum up the modern world, it might be the glowing LED. This simple light shows how we moved from a dim, stagnant past to a bright, fast-changing present.

For about two thousand years, life stayed mostly the same. To illustrate this, picture the everyday life in the year 1500: the average person consumed roughly 2,000 calories per day, barely enough for subsistence, and travel was extremely slow, with horse-drawn carriages averaging just 5 miles per hour. (Horse & Buggy Speed: Average Travel Distance Per Hour, 2022) Then, the modern era brought a huge surge in prosperity, thanks to new ways of running the economy.

Things started to change in a big way around 1776. (Allen, 2011)

This era represented a vertical inflection point not only in economic growth but also in the transition to a wholly new phase of human development. (Galor, 2011)

A common myth is that capitalism is a zero-sum game, where one person’s gain means someone else’s loss. But the facts tell a different story. (Zero-sum game, n.d.) Take ‘creative destruction’ as an example: smartphones replaced cameras and maps, hurting some old industries, but also creating new markets and jobs. What if Kodak still dominated, holding back the evolution of photography and stifling innovation in everyday communication and navigation? This scenario illustrates the opportunity cost of resisting change and highlights how wealth can grow and benefit many people simultaneously. (Crafts, 2021)

Electrons, Matter, Intelligence (EMI) by David T Phung is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.

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John Mackey, co-founder of Whole Foods, refers to this phenomenon as the ‘Prosperity Machine’, a term he uses to describe the continuous cycle of economic growth and value creation that benefits all stakeholders simultaneously. (Mackey, 2012)

The Fallacy of the Zero-Sum Perspective

In a recent conversation between David Senra and John Mackey, Mackey provided a particularly insightful definition of this system. (John Mackey, Whole Foods Market, 2026)

Mackey argues that intellectuals often miss the core mechanisms of growth, fixating on disparities in outcomes.

“They don’t understand that it’s this prosperity machine that’s creating more, not just for those billionaires, but for everything that they’re touching. They’re creating value for their customers and their employees. Their suppliers are flourishing, and their investors are seeing their capital go up. It can be reinvested and compounded.”

This compounding effect is central to the Prosperity Machine. It turns steady work into big progress for everyone involved. An example of this effect is evident in the employment growth surrounding companies such as Tesla. As Tesla’s market value surged by more than 700% over the past decade, its workforce grew from 20,000 in 2013 to more than 100,000 in 2023. (Tesla: Number of Employees 2012-2025, 2025) This kind of expansion underscores that prosperity is not only about growing wealth but also about expanding tangible job opportunities and economic participation. (Allen, 2024)

The Driving Force: Transition from Muscle to Machine

This major step forward began with a shift in how we use energy, linking economic changes to technological innovations.

For millennia, labor was bound by the physical limits of human and animal muscle. Construction and labor-intensive work were restricted by caloric intake and biological capacity. Imagine a team of workers hauling massive stones, straining against the immense weight, their movements sluggish and deliberate. The sweat on their brows and the rhythmic pattern of their exertion epitomize the high cost and inefficiency of muscle power. This type of labor is expensive, slow, and hard to scale.

Then, everything changed.

Historical evidence demonstrates a move from costly biological energy to efficient, scalable machine power. (De-skilling: Evidence from late nineteenth-century American manufacturing, 2024)

• Before 1776, most work relied on muscle, and energy was still expensive.

• After 1776, machines took over, and the price of energy declined substantially.

As the cost of energy approached zero, the value of labor increased dramatically. To illustrate this, consider the price of a kilowatt-hour in 1800 versus today. For instance, in 1800, it might have cost the equivalent of a skilled tradesman’s daily wage for a few kilowatt-hours, whereas today it costs just pennies. (Electricity price inflation, 1913 to 2026) This dramatic reduction illustrates the shift from muscle to mind, as economic attention moved from physical labor to intellectual contributions. (De-skilling: Evidence from late nineteenth-century American manufacturing, 2024)

Empirical Evidence: The ‘Price of Light’ Index

One clear sign of rising prosperity is the ‘Price of Light,’ which measures real improvements in people’s lives.

Nobel Prize winner William Nordhaus did a well-known study on this (Yale, 1996). He asked: How many hours does it take for an average person to earn enough to buy 1,000 lumen-hours of light?

The trend is remarkable: 1750 BC (Babylon): ~58 hours of labor; 1800 (Candles): ~5.4 hours of labor; 1900 (Kerosene/Gas): ~0.22 hours of labor; 2020s (LEDs): ~0.00012 hours of labor. To put this into perspective, consider the evolution from a marathon to a mere blink. This transformation encapsulates a 500,000-fold drop in effort.

This comparison shows just how much things have changed.

In ancient Babylon, getting light was a luxury that took almost a week’s work. Now, you can earn the same amount of light in less than half a second.

This is what prosperity really means: it’s not only about money or GDP, but about having more time and freedom. (Sarracino & O’Connor, 2021)

The Progression of Leverage

This transition did not occur gradually but rather involved progression through distinct levels of energy density. During this journey, society advanced through distinct eras of energy characterized by both inputs and outputs: Muscle Age: Input - Human and animal labor; Output - Physical power. Coal Age: Input - Fossil fuels; Output - Industrial power. Silicon Age: Input - Digital innovation and clean energy; Output - Digital intelligence and connectivity. Society moved from the ‘Survival Trap’ of food and muscle, through the ‘Industrial Break’ enabled by fossil fuels, and is now entering the ‘Intelligence Age.’ At higher levels of development, primary inputs shift from coal and oil to computing and electricity. The output transitions from physical power to intelligence. (2015, 2015)

The last 250 years are not a historical fluke; this is the age of the Prosperity Machine, reshaping what is possible for humanity. (Allen, 2011)

The ‘Prosperity Machine’ brings people’s goals together, supports new ideas, cuts costs, gives us more time, and creates more value. This additional time allows individuals to explore personal passions, nurture family bonds, or develop novel solutions, illustrating how personal fulfillment contributes to broader societal well-being. As people seize these opportunities, they contribute to a collective prosperity that continues to drive economic and social advancements. (Coronado & Perozek, 2003)

This is the biggest benefit of modern society: growth and prosperity on a scale we’ve never seen before, all made possible by this system.

What would it take to justify betting against prosperity? This question invites us to critically evaluate capitalism’s ongoing evolution and its role in shaping modern society. As Warren Buffett famously suggests, ‘Never bet against America.’

References:

• Charts visualized via Our World in Data style.

• GDP Data: Maddison Project Database 2020.

• Lighting Data: William Nordhaus, “The History of Lighting Suggests Not” (Yale, 1996).

• Energy Analysis: Inspired by Energy and Civilization by Vaclav Smil.

• (2022). Horse & Buggy Speed: Average Travel Distance Per Hour. Horse Care Advisor.

  https://horsecareadvisor.com/how-fast-does-a-horse-and-buggy-go/

• Allen, R. C. (2011). The Industrial Revolution. Oxford University Press.

  https://academic.oup.com/book/458/chapter/135240216

• Galor, O. (2011). Unified Growth Theory. Princeton University Press.

  https://press.princeton.edu/books/hardcover/9780691130026/unified-growth-theory

• (n.d.). Zero-sum game. Wikipedia.

  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zero-sum_game

• Crafts, N. (2021). Slow real wage growth during the Industrial Revolution: productivity paradox or pro-rich growth?. Oxford Economic Papers 74(1).

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If you had to pick one image to sum up the modern world, it might be the glowing LED. This simple light shows how we moved from a dim, stagnant past to a bright, fast-changing present.

For about two thousand years, life stayed mostly the same. To illustrate this, picture the everyday life in the year 1500: the average person consumed roughly 2,000 calories per day, barely enough for subsistence, and travel was extremely slow, with horse-drawn carriages averaging just 5 miles per hour. (Horse & Buggy Speed: Average Travel Distance Per Hour, 2022) Then, the modern era brought a huge surge in prosperity, thanks to new ways of running the economy.

Things started to change in a big way around 1776. (Allen, 2011)

This era represented a vertical inflection point not only in economic growth but also in the transition to a wholly new phase of human development. (Galor, 2011)

A common myth is that capitalism is a zero-sum game, where one person’s gain means someone else’s loss. But the facts tell a different story. (Zero-sum game, n.d.) Take ‘creative destruction’ as an example: smartphones replaced cameras and maps, hurting some old industries, but also creating new markets and jobs. What if Kodak still dominated, holding back the evolution of photography and stifling innovation in everyday communication and navigation? This scenario illustrates the opportunity cost of resisting change and highlights how wealth can grow and benefit many people simultaneously. (Crafts, 2021)

Electrons, Matter, Intelligence (EMI) by David T Phung is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.

Subscribe

John Mackey, co-founder of Whole Foods, refers to this phenomenon as the ‘Prosperity Machine’, a term he uses to describe the continuous cycle of economic growth and value creation that benefits all stakeholders simultaneously. (Mackey, 2012)

The Fallacy of the Zero-Sum Perspective

In a recent conversation between David Senra and John Mackey, Mackey provided a particularly insightful definition of this system. (John Mackey, Whole Foods Market, 2026)

Mackey argues that intellectuals often miss the core mechanisms of growth, fixating on disparities in outcomes.

“They don’t understand that it’s this prosperity machine that’s creating more, not just for those billionaires, but for everything that they’re touching. They’re creating value for their customers and their employees. Their suppliers are flourishing, and their investors are seeing their capital go up. It can be reinvested and compounded.”

This compounding effect is central to the Prosperity Machine. It turns steady work into big progress for everyone involved. An example of this effect is evident in the employment growth surrounding companies such as Tesla. As Tesla’s market value surged by more than 700% over the past decade, its workforce grew from 20,000 in 2013 to more than 100,000 in 2023. (Tesla: Number of Employees 2012-2025, 2025) This kind of expansion underscores that prosperity is not only about growing wealth but also about expanding tangible job opportunities and economic participation. (Allen, 2024)

The Driving Force: Transition from Muscle to Machine

This major step forward began with a shift in how we use energy, linking economic changes to technological innovations.

For millennia, labor was bound by the physical limits of human and animal muscle. Construction and labor-intensive work were restricted by caloric intake and biological capacity. Imagine a team of workers hauling massive stones, straining against the immense weight, their movements sluggish and deliberate. The sweat on their brows and the rhythmic pattern of their exertion epitomize the high cost and inefficiency of muscle power. This type of labor is expensive, slow, and hard to scale.

Then, everything changed.

Historical evidence demonstrates a move from costly biological energy to efficient, scalable machine power. (De-skilling: Evidence from late nineteenth-century American manufacturing, 2024)

• Before 1776, most work relied on muscle, and energy was still expensive.

• After 1776, machines took over, and the price of energy declined substantially.

As the cost of energy approached zero, the value of labor increased dramatically. To illustrate this, consider the price of a kilowatt-hour in 1800 versus today. For instance, in 1800, it might have cost the equivalent of a skilled tradesman’s daily wage for a few kilowatt-hours, whereas today it costs just pennies. (Electricity price inflation, 1913 to 2026) This dramatic reduction illustrates the shift from muscle to mind, as economic attention moved from physical labor to intellectual contributions. (De-skilling: Evidence from late nineteenth-century American manufacturing, 2024)

Empirical Evidence: The ‘Price of Light’ Index

One clear sign of rising prosperity is the ‘Price of Light,’ which measures real improvements in people’s lives.

Nobel Prize winner William Nordhaus did a well-known study on this (Yale, 1996). He asked: How many hours does it take for an average person to earn enough to buy 1,000 lumen-hours of light?

The trend is remarkable: 1750 BC (Babylon): ~58 hours of labor; 1800 (Candles): ~5.4 hours of labor; 1900 (Kerosene/Gas): ~0.22 hours of labor; 2020s (LEDs): ~0.00012 hours of labor. To put this into perspective, consider the evolution from a marathon to a mere blink. This transformation encapsulates a 500,000-fold drop in effort.

This comparison shows just how much things have changed.

In ancient Babylon, getting light was a luxury that took almost a week’s work. Now, you can earn the same amount of light in less than half a second.

This is what prosperity really means: it’s not only about money or GDP, but about having more time and freedom. (Sarracino & O’Connor, 2021)

The Progression of Leverage

This transition did not occur gradually but rather involved progression through distinct levels of energy density. During this journey, society advanced through distinct eras of energy characterized by both inputs and outputs: Muscle Age: Input - Human and animal labor; Output - Physical power. Coal Age: Input - Fossil fuels; Output - Industrial power. Silicon Age: Input - Digital innovation and clean energy; Output - Digital intelligence and connectivity. Society moved from the ‘Survival Trap’ of food and muscle, through the ‘Industrial Break’ enabled by fossil fuels, and is now entering the ‘Intelligence Age.’ At higher levels of development, primary inputs shift from coal and oil to computing and electricity. The output transitions from physical power to intelligence. (2015, 2015)

The last 250 years are not a historical fluke; this is the age of the Prosperity Machine, reshaping what is possible for humanity. (Allen, 2011)

The ‘Prosperity Machine’ brings people’s goals together, supports new ideas, cuts costs, gives us more time, and creates more value. This additional time allows individuals to explore personal passions, nurture family bonds, or develop novel solutions, illustrating how personal fulfillment contributes to broader societal well-being. As people seize these opportunities, they contribute to a collective prosperity that continues to drive economic and social advancements. (Coronado & Perozek, 2003)

This is the biggest benefit of modern society: growth and prosperity on a scale we’ve never seen before, all made possible by this system.

What would it take to justify betting against prosperity? This question invites us to critically evaluate capitalism’s ongoing evolution and its role in shaping modern society. As Warren Buffett famously suggests, ‘Never bet against America.’

References:

• Charts visualized via Our World in Data style.

• GDP Data: Maddison Project Database 2020.

• Lighting Data: William Nordhaus, “The History of Lighting Suggests Not” (Yale, 1996).

• Energy Analysis: Inspired by Energy and Civilization by Vaclav Smil.

• (2022). Horse & Buggy Speed: Average Travel Distance Per Hour. Horse Care Advisor.

  https://horsecareadvisor.com/how-fast-does-a-horse-and-buggy-go/

• Allen, R. C. (2011). The Industrial Revolution. Oxford University Press.

  https://academic.oup.com/book/458/chapter/135240216

• Galor, O. (2011). Unified Growth Theory. Princeton University Press.

  https://press.princeton.edu/books/hardcover/9780691130026/unified-growth-theory

• (n.d.). Zero-sum game. Wikipedia.

  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zero-sum_game

• Crafts, N. (2021). Slow real wage growth during the Industrial Revolution: productivity paradox or pro-rich growth?. Oxford Economic Papers 74(1).

Powered by: NLT143 | X |YouTube Podcast | Farcaster