Imagine a girl born on a rural farm in 1880. She reads second-hand books at night by the light of a kerosene lamp. Her family travels by horse-drawn wagon; news from far away arrives weeks later by mail. They rely on neighbors for help because formal institutions are scant. Fast-forward to 1950: that same woman is a grandmother in a world transformed. She flips a switch, and her home glows with electric light. She hears news of distant events instantly over the radio. She trusts her money to a bank and her letters to the postal system. Her grandchildren survive illnesses that once killed half of all children. In her 70-year lifetime, society unlocked abundant energy, built networks of trust, and unleashed a wave of curiosity and invention that made daily life unrecognizable from her childhood.

This story is not fantasy; it mirrors reality for millions who lived through the late 19th and early 20th centuries. Many thinkers believe we are living through a similar inflection point today in 2025, one that future generations might look back on as a civilizational leap akin to 1880–1950. The common thread? Each transformative era is powered by a "triple surplus" of surplus energy, surplus trust, and surplus curiosity that together unlock leaps in human progress. In this Substack-style exploration, we will journey through the past and present to see how these surpluses drive major transitions. We will use storytelling, data (with insights from Our World in Data), and a small quantity of systems thinking to understand why this era is pivotal for long-term builders and visionaries.

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Every society faces fundamental constraints. For most of human history, people lived on the edge of scarcity – just enough food and fuel to survive, limited trust outside one's tribe, and little time or knowledge to explore new ideas. "Surplus" means having more than the bare minimum: extra energy beyond survival needs, trust enabling cooperation with strangers, and extra curiosity/time to tinker and innovate. When these surpluses grow, civilizations can invest in building new capabilities rather than merely surviving. This is the overarching thesis: Surplus energy, surplus trust, and surplus curiosity are the hidden engine that propels civilization-level leaps.

1. Surplus Energy: Having abundant energy (food, fuel, electricity) frees people from incessant manual labor and opens the door to industry, transportation, and comfort. When energy is cheap and plentiful, economies can scale up production dramatically. Historian Vaclav Smil's data (visualized by Our World in Data) shows that the Industrial Revolution unlocked a staggering rise in energy supply, first via coal, then oil and gas. The availability of energy transformed the course of humanity: new sources like fossil fuels, then nuclear and renewables, massively increased the quantity of energy we could harness. This surplus energy made it possible to mechanize factories, light up cities, and feed billions. Without an energy surplus, even brilliant inventions remain idle curiosities; you can't run a steel mill or a server farm on human muscle alone.

2. Surplus Trust: Trust is the social glue that allows humans to cooperate beyond immediate family or village. It's the confidence that others (or institutions) will do their part in trade, finance, or governance. High-trust societies can form large-scale networks: companies, markets, governments, and global supply chains. Researchers say, "Trust is a fundamental element of social capital — essential for the cohesion of communities, effective cooperation, and crucial for economic development." People with surplus trust are willing to take risks together – invest capital, sign long-term contracts, adopt new technologies, or share knowledge. Nobel-winning economist Kenneth Arrow noted that virtually every transaction has an element of trust. It's no surprise that countries with higher interpersonal trust tend to be more prosperous, and evidence suggests that trust causally drives economic growth. Surplus trust enables everything from credit networks (someone trusts you'll repay a loan) to political stability (trust in institutions and the rule of law) – all necessary for major transitions.

3. Surplus Curiosity: This refers to the collective time, education, and willingness to ask questions and pursue new ideas. It's an intellectual surplus built on widespread literacy, knowledge institutions, and cultural encouragement of innovation. When a society isn't consumed by day-to-day subsistence, its people can afford to be curious – to experiment, invent, and explore. Virtually every transformative change has research and discovery at its core: as Our World in Data succinctly puts it, "Research and development underpin nearly all of the transformative changes we see." Surplus curiosity fueled the Scientific Revolution, the invention of the printing press, the Enlightenment, and every wave of technological progress. It's enabled by investments in education and information flow. Just consider the dramatic expansion of education in the last two centuries: in the early 1800s, fewer than 1 in 5 adults worldwide had any basic education – an elite luxury – whereas today, less than 1 in 5 adults lack basic education. That reversal represents billions of newly literate, educated minds contributing ideas. This "cognitive surplus" (to borrow Clay Shirky's term) grows when people have spare time (shorter working hours, longer lives) and access to knowledge. Surplus curiosity gives us the inventors, scientists, artists, and entrepreneurs who propel society forward.

4. These three surpluses are interdependent. An energy surplus raises living standards, which can build trust and free up time for curiosity (people who aren't starving can go to school or collaborate on big projects). Trust surplus enables large-scale projects to deploy energy resources and fund research. Curiosity (knowledge surplus) yields innovations that produce new energy sources or ways to build trust (like better institutions or technologies). Together, they form a virtuous cycle: more energy enables more production and communication; trust knits people into larger productive units; curiosity yields new inventions, which in turn can generate energy more efficiently or create platforms for trust (e.g., legal codes, the Internet), and inspire further curiosity. When all three surpluses surge in tandem, we don't just get linear improvement – we get civilizational transformation.

To make this more tangible, let's look at how this played out in one of history's great transition periods and then draw parallels to today.

The Industrial Age Leap (1880–1950). When our fictional grandmother lit her first electric lamp around 1880, it dawned a new era. Over the next 70 years, the world saw an unprecedented leap:

1. Energy: The late 19th/early 20th century saw fossil fuel energy explode in use. Coal went from a minor player to providing roughly half of the world's energy by 1900, powering steam engines, railroads, ships, and factories. Soon after, oil gushers and combustion engines arrived, fueling cars, airplanes, and turbines. Total energy consumption skyrocketed as we tapped the concentrated ancient sunlight in coal and oil. Historian Ian Morris estimated that per-capita energy use jumped 5× or more from 1850 to 1950. This surplus energy was evident everywhere: skylines sprouted electric lights, factories ran 24/7, farms got tractors, and households enjoyed heating and appliances that were luxury or unknown to prior generations. Cheap energy pervaded life, raising productivity and comfort.

2. Global primary energy consumption by source (1800–2020). The explosive growth of coal (black) and oil (red) in the 19th and 20th centuries multiplied humanity's energy budget many times. Industrial societies could produce and build on an unprecedented scale by unlocking ever more energy (first coal, then oil, gas, and later hydro/nuclear). The surplus energy fueled everything from steel mills to electric streetcars, to automobiles that allowed people to take road trips to explore America cross-country, laying the physical foundations of the modern world.

3. Trust: Alongside energy, this period of time saw an expansion of trust networks. Locally, people began to trust new systems: they put savings in banks (and banks in turn loaned out to entrepreneurs), bought products from distant factories relying on brand trust and quality standards, and used stable national currencies instead of gold coins or barter. Institutions like limited liability corporations (allowing investors to trust they wouldn't lose more than they invested) and insurance companies spread risk. On a broader scale, the early 20th century brought new governance models – from the rise of democratic nation-states to international cooperation after WWII (e.g., the United Nations, Bretton Woods institutions) – all attempts to extend trust across larger groups. Though the era had violent setbacks (two World Wars shattered trust between nations), it also prompted the creation of more robust systems afterward. By 1950, a person could make a purchase on credit, knowing contracts and courts backed it up; they could trust that a government bond or a company stock wasn't a scam (at least in the more developed markets). This wider radius of trust allowed capital and labor to mobilize at scale. Indeed, economists find a strong link between trust and economic outcomes: high-trust societies consistently enjoy higher GDP per capita. Surplus trust in this era enabled massive projects like nationwide electrification, highway systems, and global trade networks – none of which you attempt if you don't trust partners, investors, or the long-term horizon.

4. Curiosity: Perhaps the most awe-inspiring aspect of 1880–1950 was the explosion of knowledge and invention. In 1880, scientific research was a niche pursuit; by 1950, Big Science was a force (consider the Manhattan Project or the spaceflight experiments already underway). In that span, humanity discovered the electron, quantum mechanics, and DNA's structure; invented the automobile, airplane, radio, telephone, television, and computer; and developed vaccines and antibiotics that doubled life expectancy in many countries. This era's surplus curiosity was fed by rising education levels (public schooling became standard in many nations), the proliferation of universities and labs, and global communication (scientists sharing results across oceans via telegraph, journals, and conferences). The number of patent applications and scientific papers each year climbed steeply. In Great Britain, for instance, annual patents granted jumped dramatically during the Industrial Revolution and afterward. Societies increasingly valued innovation: tinkerers like Edison, Tesla, the Wright Brothers, Marie Curie, and Einstein became celebrities. The public and private relations of businesses and governments in R&D. This surplus of curiosity and expertise fed directly into new industries – from electrification to pharmaceuticals, which defined the 20th century.

By mid-century (1950), the results of this triple surplus were unmistakable. A person in 1950 lived, on average, a richer and longer life than in 1880, had many labor-saving machines, and inhabited a society capable of projects as ambitious as defeating polio or launching satellites. The product life cycle from idea to mass adoption had also shortened: consider that the airplane went from the Wright brothers' first 12-second flight in 1903 to routine commercial air travel by the 1940s – a few decades. Supply chains globalized too: by 1950, oil from the Middle East could fuel a car in America, and rubber from Asia could become tires in a Detroit factory. These far-flung supply chains were glued by trust (e.g., companies trusting overseas suppliers via contracts) and made possible by cheap energy (steamships, locomotives) and new knowledge (chemistry for synthetic materials, etc.).

The Digital/AI Age Leap (2025 and beyond). Now, cast your eyes on today. Many observers argue that we stand on the cusp of a new transition just as momentous. If 1880–1950 was the Industrial and Electrification Age, 1980–2050 might be remembered as the Digital and AI Age – or whatever historians call it. The ingredients, once again, can be described in terms of surpluses:

1. Energy: In 2025, humanity will consume energy at a scale unimaginable in 1880. But more importantly, we are reshaping our energy system for a new era. Cheap renewables like solar and wind are coming online at a massive scale, complemented by plummeting battery costs, which allow us to store and use energy more flexibly. Lithium-ion battery cell prices have declined 97% since 1991 – an astonishing improvement that rivals the cost decline of computer chips. This means storing surplus solar energy for nighttime or powering millions of electric cars is now economically feasible. We are essentially engineering a new surplus of cleaner energy, which could dwarf the coal age’s ubiquity. Innovations like advanced nuclear reactors, geothermal, and grid-scale storage promise to further amplify energy abundance. Imagine a world where energy is not a limiting factor – it's as cheap and available as the air – what new industries and lifestyles might that enable? Historically, rising energy use goes hand-in-hand with growth and transitions: for instance, moving from wood to coal to oil took decades. Yet, the shift to renewables is happening relatively fast (the UK went from 70% coal power to near-zero in about 30 years). The coming surplus energy, driven by technology and urgent climate need, could underwrite an explosion of innovation: powering AI supercomputers, desalinating oceans into fresh water, and even fueling ventures like space travel or high-energy scientific research. Companies like Tesla (with its battery and solar businesses) and others in the renewable sector are today's analogs to Standard Oil or General Electric – building the infrastructure of an abundant energy future.

2. Trust: Oddly, while trust in some traditional institutions is shaky in 2025, new technology-enabled trust layers are emerging to compensate. Blockchain networks and cryptocurrencies create trust through mathematics and consensus algorithms rather than centralized authorities. For example, on the Ethereum blockchain, one can execute a financial contract (a "smart contract") with strangers worldwide, with code enforcing the terms, effectively outsourcing trust to software. This is a response to a global digital economy where participants often don't know each other. Beyond blockchain, we see a proliferation of verification and reputation systems: everything from the little lock icon in your web browser (signifying a trusted encrypted connection) to user-rating systems that allow people to trust getting into a stranger's car (rideshare) or home (Airbnb). These are building a surplus of trust in digital interactions that was absent a few decades ago. Economist Glen Weyl has spoken of "trust margins" – we're extending our trust through new mechanisms so that large-scale cooperation can happen online just like industrial-age institutions enabled it in the physical world. In finance, Decentralized Finance (DeFi) platforms illustrate how you can lend and borrow at scale without knowing the counterparty – essentially recreating banks in code. Meanwhile, traditional institutions are also adapting: central banks, for instance, are exploring digital currencies to keep trust in money high. And beyond tech, there's growing awareness of the importance of social trust and institutional legitimacy. Regions with high social trust (like the Nordic countries) consistently rank high in innovation and prosperity, partly because people more readily collaborate and accept new ideas. For example, during the recent pandemic, social trust affected how communities responded to public health measures. The bottom line: surplus trust in this era will come from a mix of new tech and strengthened institutions to handle global, digital-scale interactions. It's a critical layer enabling worldwide collaboration – whether that's scientists sharing data openly or supply chains spanning dozens of countries with assurance of fair play.

3. Interpersonal trust vs. GDP per capita. High-trust societies tend to be more prosperous, and researchers find that greater trust can cause stronger economic growth. In our era, technologies like blockchain aim to raise trust in global interactions by making transactions transparent and secure, further extending the scale at which we can cooperate.

4. Curiosity: If the industrial age was driven by a few thousand great inventors and scientists, the current era harnesses the curiosity and brainpower of millions. We live in a time of unprecedented knowledge surplus. Consider a few comparisons: Over 2 million scientific papers are published yearly (far more than in the mid-20th century). Open-source software projects involve developers from every continent collaborating spontaneously. Online learning platforms and universities churn out millions of STEM graduates globally. Perhaps the biggest game-changer is the rise of artificial intelligence as a tool to amplify curiosity. Today, an individual with an internet connection can ask any question and likely find an answer within seconds, or ask an AI like ChatGPT to explain or brainstorm. This was science fiction even 20 years ago. Our World in Data notes that technological change in recent generations has been extraordinarily fast – what was unimaginable in one's youth becomes commonplace later in life. We see that with the Internet and smartphones, and now possibly with AI and biotech. Surplus curiosity is both a cause and effect here: societies that invested in education and R&D created the Internet and AI; those tools further lower the cost of knowledge, enabling even more people to innovate. We might think of AI as a new kind of curiosity multiplier – it can churn through data and even generate new hypotheses or designs, augmenting human researchers. Companies building AI infrastructure (from cloud computing providers like Amazon/Google to chip makers like Nvidia and AI labs like OpenAI) are today's equivalents of the 1900s giants of steel and electricity – they are laying a foundation on which countless new applications will be built. And unlike past leaps, knowledge isn't confined to a few hubs like London or New York; it's genuinely global. A coder in Nairobi or a biologist in Bangalore can access the same journals and tools as someone in Silicon Valley. This democratization of curiosity means the pool of potential inventors and problem-solvers is vastly larger than ever.

In 2025, these surpluses are already taking shape, but the full leap is still ahead of us. We can draw parallels between our present and the past transformative eras: just as cheap steel, the telegraph, and universal education set the stage for 20th-century breakthroughs, today's cheap solar energy, instant global communication, blockchain ledgers, and AI-driven knowledge systems are setting the stage for a mid-21st-century boom. It's a thrilling time for long-term builders and visionaries because the foundational ingredients for change are not only present but overflowing.

Let's step back and apply some systems thinking. A useful mental model (borrowed from game design) is Mechanics–Dynamics–Aesthetics (MDA) – essentially looking at the rules/resources (mechanics), how they interact over time (dynamics), and the lived experience or outcome (aesthetics). We can use this framework to understand how surplus energy, trust, and curiosity translate into real-world changes:

1. Mechanics (The Building Blocks): These are the tangible enablers – the technologies, resources, and rules that surpluses provide. For surplus energy, the mechanics are things like a new, efficient solar panel, a coal-fired steam engine, or a lithium battery—each is a rule change in the economic game, suddenly allowing more output from the same input. For surplus trust, the mechanics might be a legal framework (e.g., contract law, property rights), a cryptographic protocol, or a platform like eBay's reputation system – anything that guarantees reliability and reduces the risk of cooperation. For surplus curiosity, the mechanics are the institutions and tools of knowledge: schools, printing presses, open-source licenses, AI algorithms, etc. When a new "mechanic" appears (the invention of a scientific journal or the establishment of a central bank), it increases the potential surplus of curiosity or trust in the system. First principles thinking often focuses on these mechanics: What fundamental capability does a new technology or idea provide? For example, the basic capability of the blockchain mechanism is to distribute trust without a central authority. The essential capability of a steam engine is converting heat to motion at scale. Each such mechanic widens the realm of the possible.

2. Dynamics (Emergent Interactions and Feedback Loops): Once new mechanics are in play, how do they interact with society and each other? These are the system dynamics. Surplus energy kicks off feedback loops: cheap power -> cheaper production -> economic growth -> more investment in technology -> even cheaper power, and so on. Surplus trust likewise creates positive loops: trust lowers transaction costs, so more deals happen, which builds wealth and further social stability, allowing even larger-scale projects (trust begets more trust if not betrayed). However, dynamics can also include imbalances – e.g., if technology races ahead but trust lags, you get tensions (perhaps the story of social media in the 2010s: a knowledge-sharing explosion that outpaced our trust/verification systems, leading to misinformation issues). Understanding dynamics means looking at feedback cycles and time lags. For instance, the product life cycle of a new invention usually goes: invention (curiosity) -> early adoption (requires trust and capital) -> infrastructure build-out (energy and supply chains) -> mass adoption -> societal impact. If any stage stalls – say, people don't trust a technology initially (like early skepticism of electric cars or digital currencies) – the dynamic slows until trust is built via proofs of concept or regulation. A great example of dynamics is the supply chain of an electric vehicle: a battery breakthrough (mechanic) in a lab is just the start; it then triggers a dynamic of scaling up lithium mining, factory construction, grid upgrades for charging stations, and consumer adoption. Each step has players that must trust each other (a carmaker trusting a battery supplier's quality, governments trusting companies not to create environmental messes, and consumers trusting that an EV won't strand them). The dynamic unfolds successfully only if energy, trust, and curiosity surpluses move in concert. A breakdown in one can stall the others.

3. Aesthetics (The Lived Experience and Culture): This is about how it feels to live in the new paradigm – the qualitative, human side of change. Every civilizational leap comes with a new "aesthetic" to life. In the late Industrial Revolution, the aesthetic was the bustle of urban life, the factory whistle, the bright city at night, and the optimism of World's Fairs displaying marvels. In the present digital age, the aesthetic is virtual connectivity, the glow of screens, the frontier vibe of rapid startup innovation, and the anxiety of fast change. Aesthetics also encompass the stories and culture that emerge: the myths of the American Dream in the 1950s or the ethos of Silicon Valley in the 2010s ("move fast and break things"). When surpluses accumulate, they don't just change output; they change mindset. A surplus of curiosity can foster a culture of lifelong learning and questioning. Surplus trust can manifest as a general sense of safety and optimism in a society – people dare to dream big because they believe others will support them or at least not rob them. Surplus energy can give a feeling of invincibility – think of the 1950s vision of atomic-age futurism or today's talk of AI as a near-magic force. Understanding aesthetics matters for builders because it tells you what people value and aspire to in that era. For example, a generation that has grown up with information abundance might aesthetically value authenticity and meaning over sheer material gain (since material comfort is taken for granted). Builders who tap into the aesthetic dimension – addressing the human cravings of their time – will amplify the impact of the raw surpluses.

Bringing MDA framework together (Mechanics, Dynamics, Aesthetics): Mechanics are the "surplus" inputs, Dynamics are how those surpluses propagate, and Aesthetics are the output of lived human experience. A visionary leader or product designer should pay attention to all three. It's not enough to invent a new energy source (mechanics); you must consider how it will scale and interact with society (dynamics) and how it fits into the cultural narrative (aesthetics). During the Industrial Revolution, those who understood the system dynamics and cultural shifts – like Henry Ford – not only innovated technically but also reimagined production (assembly line dynamics) and marketed a new mobility lifestyle (aesthetic of personal freedom). Today's visionaries building AI or blockchain solutions must similarly think about complete systems.

Another practical lens to link these surpluses is the product life cycle and supply chain that carries an idea from inception to global impact. Every transformative innovation passes through stages, and at each stage, energy, trust, and curiosity play roles:

1. Invention & Prototyping: This is the realm of curiosity. An individual or team asks "what if?" and, using existing knowledge plus creative leaps, creates a new solution. Surplus curiosity (knowledge, research funding, time to experiment) is critical here. Think of the Wright brothers painstakingly building prototypes in their bicycle shop or a group of software engineers creating a new machine-learning model in a research lab. Trust at this stage might be limited to trusting one's collaborators or a grant from a funding agency. Energy needs are modest (a garage, a cloud server) but present.

2. Validation & Early Adoption: Now, trust becomes key. Others need to believe in this invention – investors need to trust the idea enough to fund it, and early customers need to trust it enough to try it. Many great ideas die here if trust or credibility is lacking. When Alexander Fleming discovered penicillin (curiosity), it still took years and the medical community's trust (plus energy/resources to mass-produce the drug) to validate and distribute it. This stage often requires storytelling to build trust: the narrative that convinces people this innovation is real and beneficial. Early adopters are usually those with surplus curiosity – they get excited by novelty.

3. Scale & Production: This is where energy and supply chains dominate. To go from a few prototypes to thousands or millions of units (or users), you need raw materials, factories or servers, logistics – an entire chain of energy-intensive processes. At this stage, trust is embodied in contracts, quality control, and brand reputation. If you're scaling electric cars, you need mining companies to reliably deliver lithium (trust + energy), factories to run 24/7 (energy), and a market that trusts your brand won't produce faulty batteries that catch fire. Here, we see mechanization and globalization in action. Surplus energy (cheap fuel, efficient machinery) determines whether you can scale cheaply. Surplus trust determines whether you can outsource parts, form partnerships, and secure capital loans to expand. Surplus curiosity still plays a role in ongoing R&D to improve the product and solve problems that arise in scaling.

4. Maturity & Integration: Finally, the product becomes a regular part of life, and the focus shifts to integration and optimization. The automobile, for example, led to highways, suburbs, and gas stations on every corner, a whole ecosystem. This requires societal trust (e.g., traffic laws, insurance systems), continuous energy supply (fuel or electricity everywhere), and further curiosity to improve safety and efficiency (R&D on better engines, or today, self-driving tech). The aesthetics fully manifest here: cars changed how cities are designed and how people live (drive-in movies, commute culture). Likewise, the Internet's maturity gave us new social norms (like the concept of a "digital identity"). At maturity, the surplus generated by the product itself can feed back into new cycles, e.g., the automotive industry became so large it funded new research and employed millions (creating an economic surplus that funded other curious ventures, etc.).

5. Crucially, a breakdown at any link of this chain can stall progress. If an invention is brilliant but society fails to build trust (perhaps regulations smother it or misinformation breeds fear), it can languish for years (consider early GMOs or nuclear power in some countries). If there's trust and curiosity but insufficient energy or materials to scale, the idea stays niche (e.g., early electric cars in the 1990s were ahead of battery capabilities). Thus, long-term builders must think end-to-end: how will I get the resources, how will I build trust, how will I educate users, and how will I embed this into society? Great visionary leaders often span these domains: scientists, engineers, salesmen, and diplomats.

Looking at our current moment through this lens, it's clear why many technologists and economists feel that the 2020s are pivotal. The mechanics are falling into place for new surpluses: We have transformative energy tech (renewables, batteries, possibly fusion on the horizon), trust tech (blockchains, ubiquitous encryption, AI moderation tools), and curiosity tech (AI itself, plus the Internet connecting all minds). The dynamics suggest we might be hitting a positive feedback loop: as AI and automation boost productivity, they could drive down the cost of many goods and tasks (an energy-equivalent surplus in computing and labor), giving people more free time and capital to invest in innovation – which yields more breakthroughs, and so on. Culturally, the aesthetic of our time is one of grand possibility mixed with urgency. Climate change, for instance, poses an existential challenge that has galvanized an entire generation of innovators to reimagine energy, cities, and industry from the ground up. There's a sense that we must reinvent our civilization's hardware in the next 20–30 years – and that imperative is actually spurring cooperation (companies sharing research on batteries or governments forming climate accords) at levels not seen since perhaps the WWII mobilization.

For long-term builders and visionaries, this is your 1880 moment. In 1880, a clever engineer or entrepreneur could look around and see nascent technologies like electricity or internal combustion and realize that with some tinkering and risk, they could build the General Electric, Ford, or IBM of the future. Analogously, today's surplus signals mean opportunities to build era-defining institutions and companies:

1. The AI revolution is still in its early days; those who harness it to create useful tools (while navigating the trust and ethical issues it raises) can alter how every industry works, much like electrification eventually touched everything. We have surplus computational power and data; the winners will figure out how to apply it creatively to solve real problems (in healthcare, education, science) and how to earn users' trust in AI-driven solutions.

2. The energy transition calls for reimagining the grid, transportation, manufacturing, and even our homes. There is room for countless builders: in scalable battery recycling (to ensure the energy surplus is sustainable), in smart grids and energy-efficient AI chips, in nuclear innovation, and in making sure this surplus energy is accessible globally (not just to rich nations). Imagine building the next Exxon or Toyota, but in a way aligned with a zero-carbon, decentralized energy world.

3. The trust infrastructure of the Internet and the global economy is underdeveloped. Who will build the Web3 or Web4 equivalents of the safeguards and standards we take for granted in physical economies? Startups and projects are working on digital identity, decentralized reputation, supply chain transparency (using blockchain to verify the provenance of goods), and community-governed platforms. These may become the new fabric of society in a few decades, analogous to how credit cards and modern finance became fabric in the mid-20th century. Long-term thinkers might also apply systems thinking here: trust isn't only tech – it's also policy, education (media literacy), and culture. There is a need for institutions that bolster societal trust (perhaps new forms of participatory governance or online dispute resolution) to prevent fragmentation in our increasingly digital lives.

4. The knowledge systems are ripe for innovation. How we organize human knowledge – scientific research, education, or creative content – rapidly evolves. Wikipedia was a marvelous start at a global encyclopedia; now, projects aim to map all human knowledge in machine-readable forms (knowledge graphs) or use AI to make research synthesis instantaneous. Companies that manage to curate high-quality knowledge and bridge the gap between experts and the public (fighting the "surplus of misinformation" that unfortunately also arose) will be crucial. There's also an aesthetic shift here: people want tools for thinking, not just information. We see this in the popularity of note-taking tools like Notion or Roam Research and in communities that share mental models for better decision-making. All these are part of harnessing the curiosity surplus – turning the firehose of information into digestible, actionable wisdom.

History doesn't repeat, but it often rhymes. The late 19th century's burst of invention and subsequent societal overhaul gave us the modern industrial world. The early 21st century's burst of digital and scientific invention is poised to reshape our world again at a fundamental level. And just like before, the combination of surpluses will determine how far we go. We could have limitless clean energy, but if we fail to maintain trust and cohesion, progress may stall or even regress (imagine energy-rich societies that descend into conflict – not a pretty picture). Likewise, we could drown in information and AI algorithms, but without curious and ethical use, it might overwhelm rather than liberate us. The long-term builders see beyond the following quarterly results or hype cycle, thinking about civilizational mechanics, dynamics, and aesthetics. They ask: What foundations must we lay now so that in 2050 or 2100, humanity will flourish?

To close, let's return to storytelling. If we were to write the story of someone born today in 2025 and fast-forward them to age 70 in 2095, what might they see? Perhaps they'll live in a world where energy is so abundant that "energy bills" feel antiquated – like paying for air. Maybe trust networks have evolved such that corruption and fraud are rare because transparent systems make them hard to hide; our 2095 citizens can safely collaborate with anyone on the planet instantly. And surplus curiosity? By 2095, education might be hyper-personalized and ongoing through life, with AI tutors and global research commons, so that people routinely make breakthroughs in their teenage years or reinvent their careers in their 60s – a true society of explorers. It could also be a world of surplus meaning, where, freed from many material constraints, humanity focuses on purpose, art, and exploration (perhaps of the oceans, space, and the mind).

Of course, this is just one optimistic sketch. The outcomes depend on what we do now. The key lesson from history is that transformative eras are not automatic; they are built by people who recognize the surpluses at hand and channel them wisely. Surplus energy must be directed into sustainable infrastructure. Surplus trust must be nurtured and not taken for granted (once broken, it's hard to rebuild). Surplus curiosity must be protected; freedom of inquiry, support for education, and openness are its guardians.

Our great-grandparents lit the night, shrank the world, and banished many ancient fears through their innovations. Now it's our turn. We have in our hands the most potent toolkit ever assembled. It's up to us, the entrepreneurs, engineers, artists, policymakers, and communities, to use our surplus energy to power bold projects, to extend trust and cooperation to an unprecedented scale, and never lose the curiosity that got us this far. If we succeed, future generations will tell stories of the 2020s builders with the same reverence we reserve for the visionaries of the past. In the end, surplus energy, trust, and curiosity are forms of hope – hope that we can do more, do better, and know more. And it's that hope that unlocks civilization-level leaps.

“Civilization advances by extending the number of important operations which we can perform without thinking of them.”

Alfred North Whitehead, An Introduction to Mathematics (1911)

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