Weekly updates on the latest going on around the NBA. All from our very own NBA Analyst, Charlie Spungin.
Weekly updates on the latest going on around the NBA. All from our very own NBA Analyst, Charlie Spungin.
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Originally a rather unpopular concept during the NBA’s bubble a few years ago, the Play-In tournament has become a staple of the NBA. Placing in the top six of the conference has become incredibly important, effectively locking up a playoff spot. The number seven seed no longer has a guarantee for the playoffs.
If you read last week's column, this same above paragraph was written pertaining to the Eastern Conference Play-In situation. This week’s column pertains to the Western Conference, which -- like the East -- finds itself with an incredibly interesting and wide open Play-In situation.
Just as in the Eastern Conference, there are a group of teams who seem to be pulling away from the pack, and oh boy are they fun. Unlike the East, the teams at the top of the West are younger squads that haven’t found as much playoff success in the past few years. The Denver Nuggets and Memphis Grizzlies appear to be fighting for the 1 seed, putting them far and away from the Play-In discussion. The 3 and 4 seeds, the Sacramento Kings(!) and New Orleans Pelicans, are enjoying their best seasons in years. Aside from these teams and the struggling San Antonio Spurs and Houston Rockets, it appears that the four play-in teams could be any of the nine remaining teams in the conference. Here’s how all of these teams look at what is just over the halfway point of the season.
Dallas Mavericks: This is essentially the Luka Doncic team. They will go as far as he goes and not a singular step further. Although they do have some quite solid players in Christian Wood and Spencer Dinwiddie, a team really can’t compete for a title with these two players as the second and third best players on the team, with all due respect. Doncic is averaging 33.7 points, 8.8 rebounds, and 8.8 assists on 60.8 TS%, which is simply absurd. The Mavs are currently the 5th seed with a 24-22 record, but they’re absolutely not safe from sinking into the Play-In with a 4-6 record in their last 10 games.
Utah Jazz: The Jazz have been arguably the league’s biggest surprise this season. They were never supposed to be featured in this column; rather, they should have been mentioned as bottomfeeders with the Spurs and Rockets. But they’re not. All-Star Lauri Markkanen and career year Jordan Clarkson have led the Jazz to a 24-24 record to be what is currently the 6th seed. It’s difficult to envision the team blowing it up at the trade deadline (something that many expected to occur at the beginning of this season) with a legitimate chance to be a top six seed, powered by their 4th ranked offense. Shoutout to Walker Kessler, too. He deserves it.
Golden State Warriors: The Warriors started the season incredibly slow with a 3-7 record despite being reigning champions and maintaining the same core, but clearly, doing it a second straight season isn’t quite as easy. However, this is a team that should be able to have a strong second half of the season. Stephen Curry just recently returned from injury, while Klay Thompson and Jordan Poole are really starting to play themselves into form. Combine this with the overall experience of the players and coaches, and they undoubtedly can have a second half of the season to play themselves out of the Play-In and into the top six. That cannot be assumed to happen, however, so they find themselves as part of this column.
Los Angeles Clippers: It feels a lot less likely that the Clippers play themselves out of the Play-In and into the top six. In fact, it feels like they’re more likely to fall outside of the top ten, if anything. They’re 2-8 in their last 10 games, and after being 19-14 at one point, they’re now 23-24. Yes, they have dealt with injuries to Paul George and Kawhi Leonard, but overall, the rest of the team (that once looked absurdly deep) has not provided a ton for the team. The offense is among the league’s worst, certainly not something to be proud of. Improved health, offense, and overall depth is what will keep this team from falling out of the Play-In.
Oklahoma City Thunder: Don’t look now, but the Thunder now occupy the 7th seed in the West. Per Cleaning the Glass, they have had the 5th best NetRtg over the last two weeks, along with the best defense over that span. They have genuinely been elite recently. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has been incredible all year, averaging over 30 points per game. Josh Giddey and Jalen Williams have both been very good as of late, as the Thunder young core looks amazing. They may be losing their shot at Victor Wembanyama if they make the Play-In with more and more wins, but it may not matter with the way they look right now. Give Coach Mark Daigneaul his flowers.
Minnesota Timberwolves: The Timberwolves are one of the most confusing and disappointing teams in recent memory. The trade for Rudy Gobert appears to be a complete blunder, as this team has simply not been able to gel to create a cohesive team. Still, they find themselves in the Play-In mix, and without their first round picks for what feels like the next two decades, this team is certainly going to want to do some winning, something that may be more difficult with the continued absence of Karl-Anthony Towns. But really, who knows if this team would even be much better with Towns? This team has just been utterly confusing.
Portland Trail Blazers: The Blazers started the season off as one of the best teams in the West, leading to people thinking that they could be a top 3 or 4 seed come playoff time. Now, that looks silly. The Blazers are the 11th seed. Their ‘Big 4’ of Damian Lillard, Jerami Grant, Anfernee Simons, and Jusuf Nurkic has been quite good, but their depth -- or lack thereof -- has seemingly sabotaged this team from being elite. Still, it feels like teams won’t want to see this team in April because of their star talent; Damian Lillard is a guy who can win any game for the Blazers at any time.
Phoenix Suns: The Phoenix Suns have fallen off a cliff. They’re 1-9 in their last 10 games after being 16-7 at one point. They’re the 12 seed. This team is legitimately garbage without Devin Booker, and that’s me saying that in the nicest way possible. Chris Paul is showing serious signs of age, and it’s also important to mention Cameron Johnson’s early season injury did not help this team, either. They need Booker back and soon to have a chance to make some noise in April. Like Damian Lillard, Booker is a player that teams absolutely dread facing.
Los Angeles Lakers: The good ‘ol Lakers. LeBron James is currently 38, and he’s playing out of his mind. Here’s his averages over his last 15 games: 34.1 points, 8.1 rebounds, 7.8 assists. Anthony Davis, when he was healthy, was playing like a legitimate MVP candidate. If, and this may be a big if, Davis can get and stay healthy, there is no team that wants to play the Lakers in April. The Lakers are just 1.5 games out of the 10th seed and 2.5 games out of the 6th seed. Russell Westbrook also has been playing very good off the bench, as he is the 6th Man of the Year favorite currently. Outside of this three, the Lakers aren’t all that, but LeBron and AD could be enough to shock the world in April.
Currently, I project the Western Conference to have the top four seeds remain where they are. At the 5th and 6th seeds, I believe it will be the Mavericks and Warriors, both avoiding the Play-In. I believe that the 7th seed will be the Los Angeles Clippers, the 8th seed to be the Phoenix Suns, the 9th seed to be the Oklahoma City Thunder, and the 10th seed to be the Los Angeles Lakers. In all honesty, I do not feel good about these projections at all. This race is simply too far open that ruling out the Timberwolves, Jazz, and Trail Blazers feels wrong.
Charlie Spungin , NBA Analyst
Originally a rather unpopular concept during the NBA’s bubble a few years ago, the Play-In tournament has become a staple of the NBA. Placing in the top six of the conference has become incredibly important, effectively locking up a playoff spot. The number seven seed no longer has a guarantee for the playoffs.
If you read last week's column, this same above paragraph was written pertaining to the Eastern Conference Play-In situation. This week’s column pertains to the Western Conference, which -- like the East -- finds itself with an incredibly interesting and wide open Play-In situation.
Just as in the Eastern Conference, there are a group of teams who seem to be pulling away from the pack, and oh boy are they fun. Unlike the East, the teams at the top of the West are younger squads that haven’t found as much playoff success in the past few years. The Denver Nuggets and Memphis Grizzlies appear to be fighting for the 1 seed, putting them far and away from the Play-In discussion. The 3 and 4 seeds, the Sacramento Kings(!) and New Orleans Pelicans, are enjoying their best seasons in years. Aside from these teams and the struggling San Antonio Spurs and Houston Rockets, it appears that the four play-in teams could be any of the nine remaining teams in the conference. Here’s how all of these teams look at what is just over the halfway point of the season.
Dallas Mavericks: This is essentially the Luka Doncic team. They will go as far as he goes and not a singular step further. Although they do have some quite solid players in Christian Wood and Spencer Dinwiddie, a team really can’t compete for a title with these two players as the second and third best players on the team, with all due respect. Doncic is averaging 33.7 points, 8.8 rebounds, and 8.8 assists on 60.8 TS%, which is simply absurd. The Mavs are currently the 5th seed with a 24-22 record, but they’re absolutely not safe from sinking into the Play-In with a 4-6 record in their last 10 games.
Utah Jazz: The Jazz have been arguably the league’s biggest surprise this season. They were never supposed to be featured in this column; rather, they should have been mentioned as bottomfeeders with the Spurs and Rockets. But they’re not. All-Star Lauri Markkanen and career year Jordan Clarkson have led the Jazz to a 24-24 record to be what is currently the 6th seed. It’s difficult to envision the team blowing it up at the trade deadline (something that many expected to occur at the beginning of this season) with a legitimate chance to be a top six seed, powered by their 4th ranked offense. Shoutout to Walker Kessler, too. He deserves it.
Golden State Warriors: The Warriors started the season incredibly slow with a 3-7 record despite being reigning champions and maintaining the same core, but clearly, doing it a second straight season isn’t quite as easy. However, this is a team that should be able to have a strong second half of the season. Stephen Curry just recently returned from injury, while Klay Thompson and Jordan Poole are really starting to play themselves into form. Combine this with the overall experience of the players and coaches, and they undoubtedly can have a second half of the season to play themselves out of the Play-In and into the top six. That cannot be assumed to happen, however, so they find themselves as part of this column.
Los Angeles Clippers: It feels a lot less likely that the Clippers play themselves out of the Play-In and into the top six. In fact, it feels like they’re more likely to fall outside of the top ten, if anything. They’re 2-8 in their last 10 games, and after being 19-14 at one point, they’re now 23-24. Yes, they have dealt with injuries to Paul George and Kawhi Leonard, but overall, the rest of the team (that once looked absurdly deep) has not provided a ton for the team. The offense is among the league’s worst, certainly not something to be proud of. Improved health, offense, and overall depth is what will keep this team from falling out of the Play-In.
Oklahoma City Thunder: Don’t look now, but the Thunder now occupy the 7th seed in the West. Per Cleaning the Glass, they have had the 5th best NetRtg over the last two weeks, along with the best defense over that span. They have genuinely been elite recently. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has been incredible all year, averaging over 30 points per game. Josh Giddey and Jalen Williams have both been very good as of late, as the Thunder young core looks amazing. They may be losing their shot at Victor Wembanyama if they make the Play-In with more and more wins, but it may not matter with the way they look right now. Give Coach Mark Daigneaul his flowers.
Minnesota Timberwolves: The Timberwolves are one of the most confusing and disappointing teams in recent memory. The trade for Rudy Gobert appears to be a complete blunder, as this team has simply not been able to gel to create a cohesive team. Still, they find themselves in the Play-In mix, and without their first round picks for what feels like the next two decades, this team is certainly going to want to do some winning, something that may be more difficult with the continued absence of Karl-Anthony Towns. But really, who knows if this team would even be much better with Towns? This team has just been utterly confusing.
Portland Trail Blazers: The Blazers started the season off as one of the best teams in the West, leading to people thinking that they could be a top 3 or 4 seed come playoff time. Now, that looks silly. The Blazers are the 11th seed. Their ‘Big 4’ of Damian Lillard, Jerami Grant, Anfernee Simons, and Jusuf Nurkic has been quite good, but their depth -- or lack thereof -- has seemingly sabotaged this team from being elite. Still, it feels like teams won’t want to see this team in April because of their star talent; Damian Lillard is a guy who can win any game for the Blazers at any time.
Phoenix Suns: The Phoenix Suns have fallen off a cliff. They’re 1-9 in their last 10 games after being 16-7 at one point. They’re the 12 seed. This team is legitimately garbage without Devin Booker, and that’s me saying that in the nicest way possible. Chris Paul is showing serious signs of age, and it’s also important to mention Cameron Johnson’s early season injury did not help this team, either. They need Booker back and soon to have a chance to make some noise in April. Like Damian Lillard, Booker is a player that teams absolutely dread facing.
Los Angeles Lakers: The good ‘ol Lakers. LeBron James is currently 38, and he’s playing out of his mind. Here’s his averages over his last 15 games: 34.1 points, 8.1 rebounds, 7.8 assists. Anthony Davis, when he was healthy, was playing like a legitimate MVP candidate. If, and this may be a big if, Davis can get and stay healthy, there is no team that wants to play the Lakers in April. The Lakers are just 1.5 games out of the 10th seed and 2.5 games out of the 6th seed. Russell Westbrook also has been playing very good off the bench, as he is the 6th Man of the Year favorite currently. Outside of this three, the Lakers aren’t all that, but LeBron and AD could be enough to shock the world in April.
Currently, I project the Western Conference to have the top four seeds remain where they are. At the 5th and 6th seeds, I believe it will be the Mavericks and Warriors, both avoiding the Play-In. I believe that the 7th seed will be the Los Angeles Clippers, the 8th seed to be the Phoenix Suns, the 9th seed to be the Oklahoma City Thunder, and the 10th seed to be the Los Angeles Lakers. In all honesty, I do not feel good about these projections at all. This race is simply too far open that ruling out the Timberwolves, Jazz, and Trail Blazers feels wrong.
Charlie Spungin , NBA Analyst
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