Web3 is replaying Web2's developmental script: from token-fueled narratives to subsidy-driven growth, then reality checks for viable use cases, and ultimately, structural maturation of ecosystems.

Some dismiss crypto as a Ponzi scheme, a bubble destined to pop. Others hail Web3 as a revolutionary paradigm shift—a new chapter in technological civilization. Between these polarized narratives lies a fundamental truth:

The core logic of business never changes.

Whether it's Web2's transition from portals to apps or Web3's shift from token hype to infrastructure wars, prosperity follows the same old playbook—only this time, narratives are encoded in protocols, and capital hides in smart contracts.

The "Internet+" mantra unlocked funding for any idea, regardless of feasibility. Startups prioritized storytelling over product-building, with valuations tied to how well a pitch deck aligned with trends like O2O or sharing economy.

Key dynamic: First-mover advantage trumped everything.

Capital became the weapon of choice in user acquisition wars. From ride-hailing (Didi vs. Kuaidi) to bike-sharing (Mobike vs. Ofo), the rule was simple: outspend rivals to dominate markets. User habits were bought, not earned.

Legacy: Growth-at-all-costs sowed seeds for later reckoning.

With slowing user growth, the industry pivoted to sustainable unit economics. Casualties included O2O and共享单车 startups, while winners like Meituan and Pinduoduo emerged by building closed-loop systems around real demand.

Turning point: Narrative gave way to structural viability.

Mature platforms now compete on systemic efficiency rather than user grabs. ByteDance's algorithmic disruption proved that even in a consolidated market, technology gaps create openings.

Web3 parallel: The same consolidation is underway—but with modular protocols and airdrop farming replacing app wars.

Ethereum's ERC-20 standard turned token launches into a democratized fundraising tool. ICO mania peaked in 2018 ($6.3B raised in Q1 alone), with valuations detached from product maturity.

Web2 equivalent: The "Internet+" bubble, but with smart contracts.

Uniswap's 2020 UNI airdrop unlocked a playbook: use tokens to buy user loyalty. Projects raced to gamify engagement via points systems and retroactive drops—only to see activity evaporate post-TGE.

Reality check: Like Web2's subsidy era, empty calories don't build lasting value.

Survivors now face the "then what?" question. Kaito's success in monetizing KOL attention (despite its "bribery economy" critique) shows niches matter. Meanwhile, exchanges like Binance and chains like Solana evolve into full-stack ecosystems.

Critical shift: From "growth hacking" to structural defensibility.

Just as ByteDance disrupted with algorithms, Web3's breakout stars will likely leverage AI to:

• Demolish onboarding friction

• Reimagine user flows

• Unlock new coordination models

Prediction: The "AI-native" protocol that cracks these could become Web3's TikTok—a category-defining outlier.

Web3 isn't reinventing business—it's recontextualizing it. The same forces that shaped Web2 (narratives → capital → consolidation → tech leaps) are now unfolding through:

• Token mechanics instead of equity

• Modular stacks instead of monolithic apps

• On-chain flywheels instead of platform lock-in

For builders, the lesson is clear: Airdrops are the new subsidies, but only structural value survives. As one founder quipped: "In Web3, you can fake growth—but you can't fake a working business model forever."

The next cycle belongs to those who bridge the gap between incentive-driven growth and self-sustaining ecosystems. Just don't expect the skeptics to notice—until it's too late.

Data sources: CoinDesk, QuestMobile, on-chain analytics. Illustrations by Odaily.