TLDR: As AI advances, it will significantly impact jobs and the economy, particularly for the middle class. Embracing change, acquiring new skills, and government intervention in education and social security will be crucial for navigating this transition and finding opportunities in the evolving landscape.

A lot of the jobs I’ve had don’t exist anymore. Not because all the businesses were the wrong product market fit, economic downturns, or required a shutdown (as seen here: https://paragraph.xyz/@dunsmoor.eth/nogooddeed), but because socio-technological economies of scale change the world and will continue to do so.

For example, I once was an assistant manager at Blockbuster (not an executive president like the memes claim about defunct businesses), but truly a lock-up-and-open-up, dealing-with-angry-customers type manager. It was in South Florida, so there were times when people had brand new Benzes but their card would get declined. (Yep. Welcome to South Florida.) This incredible time in my life was when I learned a lot of great things, including how to bartend and other fun tales for another time. But it was also when I started to see the rise of Netflix and other mailing services (this was well before streaming). I knew those businesses wouldn’t work because no one— and I mean no one—wanted to wait for the hot new releases. My brother from another mother and roommate, who let me move down to South Florida after I finished college early (a great idea but never leave college early, kids), managed the Blockbuster about 2 miles down the road (all of Florida is copy and paste). When I say both of our stores were packed out on the weekends, I mean they were packed out. People would buy stuff off our shelves we never heard of when we ran out of the new releases. We were in one of the most profitable districts in the country. This was in 2006, and on January 12, 2014, all 300 remaining corporate-owned Blockbuster stores in the U.S. were closed and the DVD-by-mail program was shut down. Less than 8 years— and total collapse because they didn’t evolve.

Now I wasn’t there at the time for this incredible collapse of quite literally a living legend, but I watched its downfall from afar. In a strange twist of history, Blockbuster was headquartered in my hometown of Spartanburg, South Carolina. Ironically, it was in the same single skyscraper where Spartan Foods nearly fell from during the creation of the Carolina Panthers franchise in 1994 (Hardee’s, Denny’s, Quincy’s, and El Pollo Loco; they really liked the 's' back then).

I’ve seen a lot of “failures” in business because, well, that’s the nature of business. But the real revolution for all of us happens this year. All these layoffs are only going to get worse as AI truly begins taking jobs. Here is a list of notable layoffs in 2024:

1. Microsoft: 1,500 layoffs due to restructuring and focus on AI. (https://finance.yahoo.com/news/microsoft-lays-off-1-500-130709704.html)

2. Cisco: Announced a 7% workforce reduction (about 5,750 employees) impacting over 4,000 employees, as part of a $1 billion investment in AI-related startups (https://www.computerweekly.com/news/366606035/Tech-sector-layoffs-mount-amid-AI-investment-frenzy and https://www.informationweek.com/it-leadership/tech-company-layoffs-the-covid-tech-bubble-bursts-sep-14)

3. Dell: Laid off 6,000 employees to reallocate resources towards AI teams. (Id.)

4. Meta: Implemented layoffs to invest in AI-driven projects. (https://www.computerweekly.com/news/366606035/Tech-sector-layoffs-mount-amid-AI-investment-frenzy)

5. Amazon: Cut several hundred positions to focus on generative AI efforts (Id.)

6. Intuit: Reduced its workforce by 1,800 to integrate AI into its software offerings. (Id.)

7. Google: Although not explicitly linked to AI, Google laid off employees as part of restructuring efforts following significant investments in AI. (https://www.computerweekly.com/news/366606035/Tech-sector-layoffs-mount-amid-AI-investment-frenzy and https://www.informationweek.com/it-leadership/tech-company-layoffs-the-covid-tech-bubble-bursts-sep-14)

8. Microsoft: Executed layoffs while focusing on defining the AI wave and empowering customer adoption of AI technology. (https://www.computerweekly.com/news/366606035/Tech-sector-layoffs-mount-amid-AI-investment-frenzy) This is scary and needs government intervention, but not in the way that you think. See, this bell curve is how a normal distribution of wealth is created, with the middle of the bell considered the middle class in this scenario. If I showed you what real wealth distribution looks like, there would be a different kind of revolution… but that’s a discussion for another time.

What is important is that this bell is going to change—not in the necessary “type” of wealth but in the type of job. You used to have “essential workers” on the lower rung of this curve and the high-end multimillionaire business owners and CEOs on the other (don’t worry, my wealthy friends, you’ll still be there; you just may have more company). In the middle, you’d have the foundations of our advanced society: doctors, lawyers, managers (above my little assistant manager at $9.85 per hour), VPs, and all the other folks that keep the machine grinding.

However, that middle section is now going to experience the biggest shake-up any society has ever seen. Because even at its most basic level right now, AI can help these people work faster, smarter, more efficiently, and retain data and knowledge better than any of us. Now, they can’t use it well just yet, but that’s where the shake-up comes. Once AI starts cracking the codes of middle management and therefore middle America, things are going to get wild. Take doctors, for example—boy, it’s hard to find them lately because medical school makes law school look like a kindergarten compared to Vietnam war. But I digress.

I love doctors! Some of the smartest, most overworked, and stressed folks on the planet, and great to share war stories with. But here’s the thing: they are about to get some serious help from AI. Remember the TV show House? Where a narcissistic but brilliant doctor loved to solve complex medical problems while being an asshole about it and bouncing ideas off his team of young doctors to finally solve the problem. So, it’s not going to be 3 or 4 doctors trying to figure out the problem, it’s going to take AI ten minutes to confirm your diagnosis and recommend treatment based on billions of data points.

Take this discussion about lab animals; regardless of your feelings about their use (and yes, those feelings are valid but take away from my point), these projects are identifying drugs at rates that lab animals cannot compare to, and this is in 2024. (See P. Diddy Arrest & Charges Are Crazy, Matt & Abby TikTok Parents Scandal, & Today’s News, Phil DeFranco, time marked at 22:13 https://youtu.be/aHyn7CJEwwM?t=1333) Wait until these data is shared and built upon. Wait until, in conjunction with your doctor, PA, and/or nurse practitioner, AI double-checks and verifies all the symptoms, complexities of genetic history, diet, exercise, previous surgeries, and anything else we can imagine to create a new solution for something that has never been solved before.

One day, we may not need as many doctors to do what they do. We need them to evolve into their higher form of evolution: the theorist doctor. The one who can outthink and outmaneuver AI to reach solutions that AI doesn’t know because no one has thought of them that way before. Boom. Now you’re on the other side of the bell curve with the really rich folks.

This will go beyond healthcare but this means that greater access to healthcare and eventually justice, with lawyers getting AI assistance means more litigators fighting for the rights of people. More court systems, more evidentiary hearings that have discovery done in a day, not in weeks, because AI has cited and found everything you need (and ideally blockchain has it recorded, but more on some of that here: AI + [redacted] = Profit, https://paragraph.xyz/@dunsmoor.eth/aidataredactedprofit). More case law to prove that X is right and Y is wrong for AI to analyze and see if it actually helped ethically, the society or intellectual property rights or any other known factor related to this data, respectively.

But it doesn’t stop there. Those essential roles we had in the early days of the pandemic will become more essential but flooded with folks who are ready to build, create, and make the real hard work possible. This will continue until making real works of art with your hands is truly an art form again. Anyone who in real estate can tell you there’s noticeable differences when the construction force is true craftsmen. These folks, I firmly believe, will have an opportunity to hone their craft while, yes, there will be bumps in the road, I think we will come out with stronger, better built, more affordable, long term housing solutions. Then we get to build really cool things, like monuments and rockets.

But this change is good. You notice how growing up there was only “coffee” whether back in the 1960s, 70s, 80s, and 90s, you had two types of coffee? Coffee and decaf. Then, out of nowhere, in the late 90s and 00s Starbucks started to explode. Now, you don’t just have “coffee”; you have a double macchiato something frothy, and that will be $8.67, please, “Johanafan.”

We used to have map makers and 411. Now we have the power of the internet at our fingertips.

We evolved.

The economy will evolve.

This is why the government should step in and help fix education and social security so that we can create a greater economy for those who want to build and those who want to think. Everyone should have “PhDs” in what they love, whether you’re a burger crafter trying to build the juiciest burger for your company or a lawyer trying to find out what due process of law actually means to create a fair and just society that reduces poverty and increases the tax base (America is a business after all regardless of how much we try to hid this fact, even in parenthesis). This bell curve will take out the middle, and what we are left with will be the builders and thinkers. They both need each other, and they both must have each other, especially if things go south. They will both be necessary until the robots get here, but that’s a worry for another decade—or in about eight years or so.

As we navigate this transition, it's crucial to adapt and prepare for the future. Embrace change, continue learning, and remain flexible. The coming era will demand new skills and new ways of thinking. Whether you're crafting the next great type of burger or redefining legal processes, the future will require creativity, resilience, and a willingness to evolve.

So, while the layoffs and technological disruptions might seem daunting, remember that they also open up opportunities for reinvention and growth. The job market will shift, but with the right mindset and preparation, we can all find our place in this evolving landscape. Embrace the change, and let’s build a future that works for everyone.

Sources: [1] 60% Of Employers Plan More Layoffs—High-Income Skills… - Forbes https://www.forbes.com/sites/rachelwells/2024/06/27/60-of-employers-plan-more-layoffs-high-income-skills-you-need-in-2024/

[2] Tech sector layoffs mount amid AI investment frenzy https://www.computerweekly.com/news/366606035/Tech-sector-layoffs-mount-amid-AI-investment-frenzy

[3] A comprehensive list of 2024 tech layoffs - TechCrunch https://techcrunch.com/2024/09/20/tech-layoffs-2024-list/

[4] Major Tech Layoffs in 2024: An Updated Tracker - InformationWeek https://www.informationweek.com/it-leadership/tech-company-layoffs-the-covid-tech-bubble-bursts-sep-14

[5] AlixPartners' view on 2024 Tech Industry's Software Layoff Wave https://www.alixpartners.com/newsroom/2024-tech-industrys-software-layoff-wave/

[6] Big tech layoffs present promise for AI-focused startups, companies https://www.nbcbayarea.com/news/tech/big-tech-layoffs-present-promise-for-ai-focused-startups-companies/3618696/

[7] Cisco's second 2024 layoff: 5600 jobs cut, shifts focus to AI growth https://www.business-standard.com/companies/news/cisco-s-second-2024-layoff-5-600-jobs-cut-shifts-focus-to-ai-growth-124091901164_1.html

[8] 30% of companies swapped workers for AI in 2024, more to come https://www.staffingindustry.com/news/global-daily-news/30-of-companies-swapped-workers-for-ai-in-2024-more-to-come