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Eray's writings

Eray's writings

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prediction(1)
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Math Behind the Distribution Markets
Eray's writings
May 14
This blog post introduces Distribution Markets, a new type of prediction market that allows traders to express and trade on entire probability distributions over continuous outcomes. Unlike traditional markets limited to discrete choices, these markets, inspired by AMMs like Uniswap but using the L2 norm, can capture the full nuance of belief, including both central tendency and uncertainty. This enables more accurate forecasting for complex events by revealing the market's collective wisdom as
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Eray's writings

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Eray

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Eray's writings
View all posts
Posts tagged with
prediction(1)
Discover card cover image
Math Behind the Distribution Markets
Eray's writings
May 14
This blog post introduces Distribution Markets, a new type of prediction market that allows traders to express and trade on entire probability distributions over continuous outcomes. Unlike traditional markets limited to discrete choices, these markets, inspired by AMMs like Uniswap but using the L2 norm, can capture the full nuance of belief, including both central tendency and uncertainty. This enables more accurate forecasting for complex events by revealing the market's collective wisdom as

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