The cryptocurrency market has experienced a significant downturn, primarily driven by unfavorable macroeconomic factors. U.S. President Donald Trump's announcement of a 25% import tariff on the EU has intensified global trade war tensions, leading to a more cautious sentiment among global market investors. Bitcoin (BTC) led the decline, with major altcoins following suit.

Bitcoin (BTC), the flagship token of the cryptocurrency market, saw its price drop to a low of $82,000 today, eventually closing down nearly 4% at $85,851. Over the past 24 hours, BTC's liquidation volume reached as high as $460.86 million, further exacerbating the downward trend. Despite this, BTC's market dominance has increased to 60.38%, reflecting its relative stability compared to other altcoins amidst the overall market decline.

Ethereum (ETH) was not spared either, with its price falling nearly 7% over the past 24 hours to $2,347. ETH, ranked second in market cap, also hit a low of $2,255.05 and a high of $2,503.42 today. Meanwhile, its market dominance slipped by 10%.

Based on historical cycles, we are currently in the mid-to-late phase of the fourth cryptocurrency bull market. The crypto market typically follows a 4-year cycle, with 3 years of bear market and 1 year of bull market.

In this 1-year bull market, the first 8 months generally see a slow, consolidating downward trend, while the last 2 months witness a rapid surge. The final 2 months are typically used for topping formation. Strictly speaking, this bull market began in October 2023, placing us in the mid-phase of the bull run, which is expected to last another 5 months or so.

The true explosive phase is yet to come, anticipated between March and May this year, and is expected to conclude around July 2025. Of course, this is not a definitive prediction but rather an analysis based on past cycles for reference only. The crypto market is highly volatile and difficult to predict with precision. However, historical patterns do suggest such characteristics.

The crypto market does not move in a one-sided direction; it does not continuously rise or fall. This market evolves rapidly. To eventually catch up with the market cap of gold, it must experience rapid surges in a short period, which is why it follows a 4-year cycle with the true explosion concentrated in 3-4 months.

In essence, after waiting for 4 years, the key is to capture that crucial 3-4 months. Missing this window could turn potential profits into losses. Additionally, the crypto market needs sharp declines to weed out scams, junk projects, and speculators. Efficiency is paramount in the crypto space, which was born to transform financial efficiency and inevitably eliminates subpar projects.

When the bear market begins, only Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) should be held firmly; other coins are not advisable to keep. Throughout the entire cycle, it is likely that only Bitcoin and Ethereum can truly survive the bull and bear markets, while the rest may merely be supporting players.

For now, it is best to patiently await the arrival of the next explosive bull market. If you have already positioned your portfolio, maintain confidence in your holdings and make only minor adjustments rather than drastic changes to your major positions.