Key Take-away
Every macro cycle repeats the same three-act play: euphoric top, violent purge, uneven recovery. Draw-down is not a bug; it is the moment the thermostat resets.

2021-2025 in One Glance

• Q4 2021: Liquidity orgy. BTC > $69 k, NASDAQ > 16 k, S&P 500 > 4.8 k; A-share hot spots still bubbling.

• 2022-23: Fastest Fed hike cycle since Volcker. BTC ‑77 %, ETH ‑82 %, S&P ‑27 %, NASDAQ ‑38 %, CSI 300 ‑30 %.

• 2023-25: Inflation rolls over, AI narrative arrives, rate-cut bets appear. U.S. equities and Crypto print new all-time highs; A-share only claws back to 3 800 in late-2025.

The Script Is Always the Same—Only the Actors Change
If you survived “9·4”, “3·12”, “5·19” or this year’s “10·11” you already know the rule: the deeper the hole, the sturdier the next foundation.
Stretch the time-line to four years and add the two traditional giants—U.S. equities and A-shares—and the pattern stays intact:

1. Liquidity tide lifts every boat.

2. Liquidity recedes; leverage detonates; correlations → 1.

3. Liquidity stabilises; fundamentals diverge; winners separate from tourist coins / zombie stocks.

Act I – The Top (Q4 2021)
Cheap money, stimmy checks, zero rates. Crypto floods with paper-billionaires; U.S. tech trades at 40× earnings; China’s “new-energy” funds price in 50 % annual growth forever. Nobody knows when the music stops—only that it must.

Act II – The Purge (2022-23)
Fed funds 0 % → 5.25 % in 16 months. Dollar smiles, everything else vomits.

• Crypto: Terra → 3AC → FTX; 20 % of BTC supply changes hands at < $20 k.

• U.S. equities: Multiple, not earnings, does the damage; FAANGs lose $3 trn in 10 months.

• A-shares: COVID reopening fails, property sector stalls, retail exits. Policy “bazookas” arrive late and under-size.

Act III – The Split-Track Recovery (2023-25)
U.S. Equities – AI Saves the Day
NVDA EPS +580 % in six quarters; Mag-7 margins expand to 29 %. S&P 500 reclaims high Jan-2024; by Oct-2025 it is 38 % above the old peak. The market is no longer “priced for perfection”; it is priced for “no alternative + buy-backs + fiscal dominance”.

Crypto – ETF Wall Streetisation
Jan-2024: spot-BTC ETFs approved. BlackRock alone seeds $28 bn in 8 months. BTC hits $126 k (+83 % vs 2021 top) but 90 % of alts still 70-90 % below prior highs. Market splits into “main-pool” (BTC, ETH, SOL) and “spec islands” with 50× velocity and 0× liquidity.

A-Shares – Policy vs. Perception
Seventeen bail-outs, five rate cuts, three “National Team” rescues. Index finally re-crosses 3 800 in Aug-2025, 4.5 years after the 2021 top—an annualised return of 1.2 %. Retail faith measured by new-account openings remains 40 % below 2020 levels.

Cross-Market DNA: Why Drawdowns Heal Differently

• U.S. Equities: Double-cycle machine—liquidity + earnings. Rule of law, buy-backs, deep institutional bid = fastest rebound.

• Crypto: Pure-play liquidity with narrative leverage. High beta to Fed balance-sheet expectations; post-ETF, begins to trade like “tech on steroids”.

• A-Shares: Policy-beta market. Valuation cheap for a reason; recovery gated by confidence, not just liquidity.

Portfolio Translation: How to Own the Next Cycle

1. Core – U.S. equities: 60-70 %. You are buying the global cost-of-capital benchmark.

2. Satellite alpha – Crypto: 5-15 %. Treat as a 4-year call option on monetary-network adoption; expect 70 % draw-downs and 300 % snap-backs.

3. Tactical – A-shares: 5-10 %, timed around policy convenings (National People’s Congress, PBoC LPR cuts). Use sector ETFs (EV, solar, semis) to avoid single-name land-mines.

Last Word
Bull markets give you return; bear markets give you the address of the assets that actually matter. The 2021-25 experiment proved once again that surviving the draw-down—not chasing the rally—is the only path to compound. In endurance investing, the winner is not the one who sprints fastest uphill, but the one who refuses to be carried out feet-first on the way down.