According to a Bitcoin on-chain analysis report released by VanEck, the recent decline in Bitcoin's price is primarily driven by selling pressure from mid-term holders rather than long-term holders. Here are the key takeaways from the report:

Long-Term Whales Continue Holding: Investors holding Bitcoin for over five years have continued to accumulate, with a net increase of 278,000 BTC over the past two years, demonstrating strong conviction.

Selling Pressure from Mid-Term Holders: Over the past 30 days, selling has been concentrated among holders with coins aged less than five years, particularly those last active 3-5 years ago. This segment's supply has decreased by 32% over the past two years.

Changes in Whale Holdings: The largest whales holding 10,000 to 100,000 BTC have been reducing their positions since November 2023, while smaller investors holding 100 to 1,000 BTC have significantly increased their holdings by 23% over the past year.

Futures Market Reset: Bitcoin perpetual futures open interest has decreased by 32% in USD terms since October 9, with funding rates at oversold levels, indicating a significant reset in market speculation.

Extreme Fear in Market Sentiment: The Fear/Greed Index has dropped to its lowest level since March 2025, with current oversold conditions comparable to the tariff panic in spring 2025.

The report notes that despite pessimistic market sentiment, on-chain data shows long-term investors remain steadfast, and this adjustment phase may present better entry opportunities for investors.

Summary

Source: VanEck, originally titled "VanEck Mid-November 2025 Bitcoin ChainCheck"

Key Takeaways

• Long-term whales continue holding, with coins aged over five years showing sustained growth.

• Selling is concentrated among mid-term holders rather than the oldest wallets.

• The futures market appears to have completed a wash-out, with funding rates and open interest at oversold levels.

• Bitcoin (BTC) investors are feeling fearful.

ETP Outflows Drive Early Weakness
The past 30 days have been particularly challenging for holders, with BTC falling 13% amid motivated selling.

Since October 10, 2025, BTC ETP balances have seen outflows of 49.3k BTC, approximately -2% of assets under management (AUM), as weak hands who bought near the peak capitulated amid uncertainty about rate cuts and shifts in the AI narrative.

More concerningly, many have attributed the price weakness to early BTC whales.

For example, a "Satoshi-era" whale sold $1.5 billion worth of BTC in the week of November 14, 2025, emptying his entire wallet. Many believe that seasoned whales often signal BTC's long-term trajectory by buying and selling at key moments. Consequently, the cryptocurrency community turned bearish, with the Fear/Greed Index falling to its lowest level since March 2025 during the onset of the tariff panic.

Smaller Whales Accumulate Over 1-2 Years While Largest Whales Sell; Recent Net Changes Flat
Whale positions show long-term reduction but short-term increase.

Rather than assuming recent weakness stems from large holders selling, it's essential to examine the complete distribution of fund flows across groups.

The on-chain situation reveals a more nuanced rotation than a simple "whale sell-off." Observing wallets holding over 1,000 BTC clearly shows they have been reducing their BTC exposure since November 2023.

In fact, whales holding 10K-100K BTC have reduced their supply by -6% and -11% over the past 6 and 12 months, respectively. This supply has been absorbed by "smaller fish" holding 100 to 1,000 BTC. These smaller investors have increased their holdings by +9% and +23% over the past 6 and 12 months, respectively. For context, BTC itself has risen approximately 170% over the past two years.

Short-Term Whales Turn Net Buyers
Short-term data tells a different story: some whale groups have been accumulating. The 10K–100K BTC group increased their holdings by approximately +3%, +2.5%, and +84 bps over the past 30, 60, and 90 days, respectively. This may reflect tariff-driven selling and subsequent liquidation, which reduced BTC futures open interest by about 19% within 12 hours and pushed prices down over 20%.

Oldest BTC Whales Hold While Mid-Term Traders Sell
Mid-Term Holders Are the Real Sellers
However, analyzing "whale data" solely by holder size provides an incomplete picture. This perspective overlooks the rotation where experienced older whales transfer their coins to new, inexperienced holders. To deepen our understanding, we examine Bitcoin balances by "last active transfer time," which indicates how long ago the coins were last moved. The implied meaning of transfer is that these coins were likely sold to different holders.

Over the past 30 days, selling pressure has concentrated in the <5-year coin age group, while older coins have mostly maintained or increased their holdings. Interestingly, over the past six months, ownership has shifted from the (3-5 years) group to the (6 months-2 years) group, marking a transfer of funds from mid-term holders to new participants.

Among older groups—those whose coins were last active >5 years ago—coin turnover remains relatively low compared to other groups. In contrast, the largest outflow occurred in coins last active 3-5 years ago, with this group consistently declining in each study period. Over the past two years, this segment's supply has decreased by 32% as these coins were sent to new addresses. Given that many of these coins were likely accumulated during the previous Bitcoin cycle's downturn, their holders appear to be opportunistic cycle traders rather than long-term investors.

Meanwhile, coins last active >5 years ago have seen a net increase of +278K BTC (compared to two years ago). This growth reflects younger coins aging into the 5+ years category rather than reaccumulation, but it still indicates the ongoing conviction of long-term whales. While more granular analysis might yield additional insights, the overall trend remains encouraging: the longest-term holders continue to accumulate and hold.

Futures Market Shows Speculative Activity Reset
One of the best indicators of speculative sentiment is the annualized basis cost paid by traders willing to go long on Bitcoin perpetual futures. Since perpetual contracts never expire, their prices align with spot prices through interest charged to one side of the trade. If the perpetual price is higher than the spot price, longs must pay shorts an interest rate related to the spot/perpetual price difference. Due to cryptocurrencies' asymmetric upside potential, the perpetual basis is almost always positive.

During periods of lower demand for cryptocurrencies like BTC, the basis collapses. Recently, we've seen a sharp crash in Bitcoin perpetual open interest, down -20% in BTC terms and -32% in USD terms since October 9, 2025. This partly explains the sharp collapse in funding rates. Of course, if people turn bullish on BTC, this rate could climb rapidly.

In the past, when Bitcoin began a sustained decline, a clear signal typically emerged: perpetual funding rates would spike, sometimes averaging 40% on certain days during frenzied periods. But this time is different; since March 2024, we haven't seen such疯狂 increases in funding rates.

Here's an interesting aside—innovative protocols like Ethena and professional trading institutions have been engaging in large-scale "spot buying + perpetual shorting" arbitrage. Ethena alone reached $14 billion in scale in October 2025, though it later shrank to $8.3 billion. Such massive arbitrage activity has actually suppressed funding rates, somewhat distorting this traditional indicator.

Nevertheless, the current plunge in funding rates, combined with large-scale liquidation of perpetual open positions, indeed suggests the market has oversold. Another key indicator, NUPL (which reflects the average profit/loss level of all holders), also shows that the current oversold程度 is similar to the tariff panic in spring 2025 and the yen collapse in August 2024.

For investors, after this month's violent washout, it may be time to calmly seek entry opportunities. When the market panics, it often presents good布局 opportunities.