Macro Pivot: A “Pre-emptive” Cut Puts Jobs Ahead of Inflation
On 18 September 2025 the FOMC lowered the federal-funds target range by 25 bp to 4.00-4.25 %, formally kicking off the new easing cycle. The post-meeting statement dropped the long-used line that “labour-market conditions remain robust” and instead noted that “job gains have slowed and the unemployment rate has risen.” With core PCE still at 2.7 %—well above the 2 % goal—Jay Powell admitted “there is no risk-free path,” signalling a clear shift toward protecting employment. The dot-plot midpoint for end-2025 is now 3.6 %, implying two more cuts this year; futures price a 92 % chance for October and 60 % for December. Michigan consumer sentiment just printed 55.1, its lowest since May. Markets will therefore be hyper-sensitive to the next non-farm payroll: any softness will cement the easing path, while a rebound could force the Fed back onto the tight-rope.

Equities: AI Giants Invent a “Closed-Loop” Valuation Model
September’s rate cut smashed the historic “September jinx”: the Nasdaq, S&P 500 and Dow all closed at record highs. Semiconductors led the charge—Intel jumped 22 % in one session—while AI names continued their 2025 tear. A new valuation template is emerging from the triangle of Nvidia → OpenAI → Oracle:

• Nvidia pledges US $100 bn to OpenAI’s 10 GW AI-mega-data-centre build-out (≈ 4.5 mln GPUs, or one full year of Nvidia shipments).

• Oracle chips in US $40 bn for GPUs, then signs a US $300 bn cloud contract to rent the finished capacity back to OpenAI.
  Cash therefore flows OpenAI → Oracle → Nvidia → OpenAI, turning a capital outlay into captive revenue and equity upside for all three. The arrangement tightens the AI oligopoly, boosts visibility for Nvidia’s pricing power and lets Oracle leap-frog hyperscale rivals. Investors are now pricing AI stocks on “network GDP” rather than single-company cash-flow, explaining the sector’s 20 %-plus YTD multiple expansion even as Powell warns that valuations look “quite high.” With core inflation sticky and some FOMC voters still hawkish, any hint of a slower cutting pace could trigger a violent unwind.

Bitcoin: Buy-the-Dip Etched in Stone—ETFs Absorb 241 mln in One Day
BTC slipped below US $110 k late month as leveraged longs were flushed on U.S. budget-shutdown fears. Yet the spot ETFs saw their biggest daily inflow of Q4—US $241 mln on 25 September alone, with BlackRock’s IBIT taking US $129 mln and lifting its hoard to 768 k BTC (≈ US $85 bn). The pattern rhymes with 2019: after the Fed’s mid-year “insurance” cut BTC chopped for six months, then ripped from US $7 k at Christmas 2019 to US $29 k by December 2020 (+300 % from the low). Institutions again appear to be “buying the forecast, holding the volatility.”

Corporate Treasuries: From Meme Bet to Strategic Asset
Listed firms are no longer dabbling; they are allocating. Nasdaq-listed JZXY Holdings (NASDAQ: JZXN) approved a US $1 bn crypto treasury plan in September, telling shareholders the coins will be held “for the long term as a store-of-value hedge against macro uncertainty.” The SEC and FINRA have opened probes into more than 200 similar announcements, scrutinising pre-release share spikes. Short-term headline risk, long-term cleansing: the crackdown should purge “pseudo-treasury” pumps and leave genuine adopters trading at a verifiable premium. In a world of 3 % risk-free drift, balance-sheet allocation is the most unambiguous vote of confidence management can cast.

Looking Forward: Three Tail-Winds Align

1. Macro Fuel: another 2–3 cuts are priced through 2026, compressing yields and the dollar.

2. Political Put: a second Trump administration is campaigning on a pro-crypto platform; even noise about curbing Fed independence makes decentralised assets look like constitutional hedge.

3. Real-Virtual Convergence: gold’s 2025 breakout signals global recession angst; crypto offers the same hard-cap scarcity plus tech-beta upside.

Cheap money, friendly politics and a proven store-of-growth profile are converging. The Fed did not merely light a spark this September—it is pumping fuel into the tank.

Macro Pivot: A “Pre-emptive” Cut Puts Jobs Ahead of Inflation
On 18 September 2025 the FOMC lowered the federal-funds target range by 25 bp to 4.00-4.25 %, formally kicking off the new easing cycle. The post-meeting statement dropped the long-used line that “labour-market conditions remain robust” and instead noted that “job gains have slowed and the unemployment rate has risen.” With core PCE still at 2.7 %—well above the 2 % goal—Jay Powell admitted “there is no risk-free path,” signalling a clear shift toward protecting employment. The dot-plot midpoint for end-2025 is now 3.6 %, implying two more cuts this year; futures price a 92 % chance for October and 60 % for December. Michigan consumer sentiment just printed 55.1, its lowest since May. Markets will therefore be hyper-sensitive to the next non-farm payroll: any softness will cement the easing path, while a rebound could force the Fed back onto the tight-rope.

Equities: AI Giants Invent a “Closed-Loop” Valuation Model
September’s rate cut smashed the historic “September jinx”: the Nasdaq, S&P 500 and Dow all closed at record highs. Semiconductors led the charge—Intel jumped 22 % in one session—while AI names continued their 2025 tear. A new valuation template is emerging from the triangle of Nvidia → OpenAI → Oracle:

• Nvidia pledges US $100 bn to OpenAI’s 10 GW AI-mega-data-centre build-out (≈ 4.5 mln GPUs, or one full year of Nvidia shipments).

• Oracle chips in US $40 bn for GPUs, then signs a US $300 bn cloud contract to rent the finished capacity back to OpenAI.
  Cash therefore flows OpenAI → Oracle → Nvidia → OpenAI, turning a capital outlay into captive revenue and equity upside for all three. The arrangement tightens the AI oligopoly, boosts visibility for Nvidia’s pricing power and lets Oracle leap-frog hyperscale rivals. Investors are now pricing AI stocks on “network GDP” rather than single-company cash-flow, explaining the sector’s 20 %-plus YTD multiple expansion even as Powell warns that valuations look “quite high.” With core inflation sticky and some FOMC voters still hawkish, any hint of a slower cutting pace could trigger a violent unwind.

Bitcoin: Buy-the-Dip Etched in Stone—ETFs Absorb 241 mln in One Day
BTC slipped below US $110 k late month as leveraged longs were flushed on U.S. budget-shutdown fears. Yet the spot ETFs saw their biggest daily inflow of Q4—US $241 mln on 25 September alone, with BlackRock’s IBIT taking US $129 mln and lifting its hoard to 768 k BTC (≈ US $85 bn). The pattern rhymes with 2019: after the Fed’s mid-year “insurance” cut BTC chopped for six months, then ripped from US $7 k at Christmas 2019 to US $29 k by December 2020 (+300 % from the low). Institutions again appear to be “buying the forecast, holding the volatility.”

Corporate Treasuries: From Meme Bet to Strategic Asset
Listed firms are no longer dabbling; they are allocating. Nasdaq-listed JZXY Holdings (NASDAQ: JZXN) approved a US $1 bn crypto treasury plan in September, telling shareholders the coins will be held “for the long term as a store-of-value hedge against macro uncertainty.” The SEC and FINRA have opened probes into more than 200 similar announcements, scrutinising pre-release share spikes. Short-term headline risk, long-term cleansing: the crackdown should purge “pseudo-treasury” pumps and leave genuine adopters trading at a verifiable premium. In a world of 3 % risk-free drift, balance-sheet allocation is the most unambiguous vote of confidence management can cast.

Looking Forward: Three Tail-Winds Align

1. Macro Fuel: another 2–3 cuts are priced through 2026, compressing yields and the dollar.

2. Political Put: a second Trump administration is campaigning on a pro-crypto platform; even noise about curbing Fed independence makes decentralised assets look like constitutional hedge.

3. Real-Virtual Convergence: gold’s 2025 breakout signals global recession angst; crypto offers the same hard-cap scarcity plus tech-beta upside.

Cheap money, friendly politics and a proven store-of-growth profile are converging. The Fed did not merely light a spark this September—it is pumping fuel into the tank.