It looks like the 4-year cycle is playing out again. Sell Q4 2021, buy capitulation event Q4 2022, sell Extreme Greed in Q4 2025. Not as easy as it sounds, but easy. The ATH for this 4-year cycle will, at earliest, be printed in Q4 2025, which is exactly what a 4-year cycler would have prescribed 3 years ago. Now, every man and his dog will call the top every day until we do actually have a major correction. There remain 86 days in Q4 2025. The last two cycles topped in month 35, which this time, is October. The 2013 cycle topped in month 37, which would be December. The 3 previous cycles topped respectively in November, December and November. So, it could easily be any of the three months. There is also a decent chance the cycle 'breaks' and we top in 2026. Or we could just melt up forever in a new paradigm supercycle.

I don't know what will happen. My best guess is that if we tick into Extreme Greed (we're currently in Greed at 71), it would be prudent to shave off some profits. Finding that balance between aggressively taking profits close to the top but not selling too early is very difficult. You won't time it perfectly. But, if you followed the 4-year cycle and were buying BTC at $16-17k after the FTX collapse in late 2022, you are up handsomely. The importance of getting a good entry means you either win big, or win more bigly here.

My two biggest positions are Ethereum and Coinbase stock, and I have sizeable holdings of SUI, SOL, BTC, PENGU and ZRO, and Pudgy Penguin NFTs. The final three are riskier bets that I'd hold until we see something resembling an alt season from past cycles. I will be selling two thirds of the Coinbase position at $450, which represents a big gain having accumulated under $100 and I'm slightly concerned about dilution with the upcoming Base airdrop. I'll start selling respectively at $5300 ETH, $6 SUI and $400 SOL, but do think we can reach $8k and $12 on the first two, where I would be selling most of my position. I wouldn't sell the BTC under $200k, as I'm happier to hold that through a bear market.