
The Art of Forecasting
Comparing Polymarket and prediction markets with traditional public opinion channels.Polymarket has emerged as a rising star in consumer crypto, especially driven by the upcoming U.S. presidential election and the related events. Many crypto experts have praised Polymarket’s success in achieving product-market fit, notably without relying on tokens or external incentives. As of this writing, Polymarket has once again hit an all-time high in daily and monthly active users, as well as in daily ...

Polymarket’s Post-Election Resilience
The 2024 US elections were not just a pivotal moment in American politics—they also became a defining catalyzer for Polymarket, the most successful blockchain-based prediction market. In the lead-up to November 5th, Polymarket experienced an unprecedented surge in activity, with its main election market and numerous secondary markets fueling a meteoric rise in user engagement and trading volumes. Some anticipated a steep and definitive decline following the resolution of these election-relate...
The Future of Blockchain: Modular Design and Intent-Based Systems
ModularityBlockchain technology is undergoing a significant shift - transitioning from the monolithic model, where a single blockchain handles all functions including execution, consensus, settling, and data availability (as seen in Ethereum), to a modular design. This paradigm envisions a plug-and-play architecture, where each component of the blockchain stack is outsourced to a marketplace of third-party providers, enabling different blockchains to combine distinct elements for various func...
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The Art of Forecasting
Comparing Polymarket and prediction markets with traditional public opinion channels.Polymarket has emerged as a rising star in consumer crypto, especially driven by the upcoming U.S. presidential election and the related events. Many crypto experts have praised Polymarket’s success in achieving product-market fit, notably without relying on tokens or external incentives. As of this writing, Polymarket has once again hit an all-time high in daily and monthly active users, as well as in daily ...

Polymarket’s Post-Election Resilience
The 2024 US elections were not just a pivotal moment in American politics—they also became a defining catalyzer for Polymarket, the most successful blockchain-based prediction market. In the lead-up to November 5th, Polymarket experienced an unprecedented surge in activity, with its main election market and numerous secondary markets fueling a meteoric rise in user engagement and trading volumes. Some anticipated a steep and definitive decline following the resolution of these election-relate...
The Future of Blockchain: Modular Design and Intent-Based Systems
ModularityBlockchain technology is undergoing a significant shift - transitioning from the monolithic model, where a single blockchain handles all functions including execution, consensus, settling, and data availability (as seen in Ethereum), to a modular design. This paradigm envisions a plug-and-play architecture, where each component of the blockchain stack is outsourced to a marketplace of third-party providers, enabling different blockchains to combine distinct elements for various func...
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A recent district court ruling stated that, in most instances, XRP is not a security. Specifically, XRP is not a security when traded on exchanges or when used to pay employees (defined as ‘programmatic retail sale’) but becomes one when sold directly to hedge funds, market makers, and other investors (which qualifies as an ‘institutional sale’). This judgment provides a bit of clarity on the application of the securities regime to crypto tokens and hopefully opens doors for crypto projects and exchanges to operate within more certain legal boundaries. For years, US-based crypto companies have faced uncertainty due to the lack of clear legislation. This decision, which is not binding and which could be appealed and eventually overruled, is, though, persuasive and may constitute a helpful reference for future rulings and laws, helping bring about a new legal regime in the United States.
At the same time, the European Union is also up to speed after passing the MiCA body of regulations last May. Despite representing an important milestone, there are mounting concerns that this regulation might already be outdated (it doesn’t cover NFTs, DeFi, or other central components of the blockchain industry) and challenging to implement in real-world scenarios.
The divergence in approach - whether allowing an industry to develop organically, assessing eventual problems, and implementing regulations to address them, or proactively establishing preemptive laws to regulate and shape the nascent industry - makes me wonder about the influence of the legal system (common law or civil law) on entrepreneurship and innovation.
Let's consider the common law, which offers flexibility, adaptability, and a strong emphasis on property rights. Entrepreneurs should thrive in this environment as rulings and laws based on real cases provide clear references. Nevertheless, the process of consolidating legal principles into clear laws often requires a significant amount of time, leaving entrepreneurs operating in a legal gray area for extended periods. This is exactly what happened to Coinbase, XRP, and many other projects in the crypto space. This state of ambiguity and uncertainty could discourage entrepreneurs and incentivize businesses to relocate to other jurisdictions, as Binance and FTX did.
On the other hand, civil law tends to generate comprehensive systems and is generally introduced at an earlier stage, setting boundaries early on and leaving companies and entrepreneurs the opportunity to plan accordingly. While this initial clarity may seem advantageous, the timing and extent of these regimes can potentially stifle innovation and suffocate emerging industries, especially when introduced prematurely, before a thorough understanding of their true potential has been reached. This could be the case for the EU’s bodies of laws and regulations on blockchain in May and AI in June.
More studies and evidence are needed to answer the question: is one legal regime more conducive to propelling innovation? In the meantime, it will be interesting to keep monitoring the development of different legal approaches and assess their impact on entrepreneurship, innovation, and growth of the crypto industry. By fostering an environment that combines regulatory clarity with adaptability and flexibility, governments can enable companies to thrive while safeguarding the interests of all stakeholders.
A recent district court ruling stated that, in most instances, XRP is not a security. Specifically, XRP is not a security when traded on exchanges or when used to pay employees (defined as ‘programmatic retail sale’) but becomes one when sold directly to hedge funds, market makers, and other investors (which qualifies as an ‘institutional sale’). This judgment provides a bit of clarity on the application of the securities regime to crypto tokens and hopefully opens doors for crypto projects and exchanges to operate within more certain legal boundaries. For years, US-based crypto companies have faced uncertainty due to the lack of clear legislation. This decision, which is not binding and which could be appealed and eventually overruled, is, though, persuasive and may constitute a helpful reference for future rulings and laws, helping bring about a new legal regime in the United States.
At the same time, the European Union is also up to speed after passing the MiCA body of regulations last May. Despite representing an important milestone, there are mounting concerns that this regulation might already be outdated (it doesn’t cover NFTs, DeFi, or other central components of the blockchain industry) and challenging to implement in real-world scenarios.
The divergence in approach - whether allowing an industry to develop organically, assessing eventual problems, and implementing regulations to address them, or proactively establishing preemptive laws to regulate and shape the nascent industry - makes me wonder about the influence of the legal system (common law or civil law) on entrepreneurship and innovation.
Let's consider the common law, which offers flexibility, adaptability, and a strong emphasis on property rights. Entrepreneurs should thrive in this environment as rulings and laws based on real cases provide clear references. Nevertheless, the process of consolidating legal principles into clear laws often requires a significant amount of time, leaving entrepreneurs operating in a legal gray area for extended periods. This is exactly what happened to Coinbase, XRP, and many other projects in the crypto space. This state of ambiguity and uncertainty could discourage entrepreneurs and incentivize businesses to relocate to other jurisdictions, as Binance and FTX did.
On the other hand, civil law tends to generate comprehensive systems and is generally introduced at an earlier stage, setting boundaries early on and leaving companies and entrepreneurs the opportunity to plan accordingly. While this initial clarity may seem advantageous, the timing and extent of these regimes can potentially stifle innovation and suffocate emerging industries, especially when introduced prematurely, before a thorough understanding of their true potential has been reached. This could be the case for the EU’s bodies of laws and regulations on blockchain in May and AI in June.
More studies and evidence are needed to answer the question: is one legal regime more conducive to propelling innovation? In the meantime, it will be interesting to keep monitoring the development of different legal approaches and assess their impact on entrepreneurship, innovation, and growth of the crypto industry. By fostering an environment that combines regulatory clarity with adaptability and flexibility, governments can enable companies to thrive while safeguarding the interests of all stakeholders.
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