Between 2020 and 2023, the number of layer-1 blockchains grew rapidly, most of them aiming to solve the same set of problems: transaction speed, high gas fees, and scalability. Yet this boom has created another issue—redundancy.

By 2025, reality has proven that only a handful of layer-1s have managed to retain liquidity, active developers, and real users. Ethereum, Solana, BNB Chain, and a few with genuine architectural innovations (like Aptos or Monad) continue to thrive, while dozens of others have turned into “ghost chains” — TVL drained, explorers showing barely any real activity.

This surplus of layer-1s has led to fragmented resources:

• Capital was spread thin, with VC money from 2021–2022 never returning to chains that failed to prove a competitive edge.

• Developers chased short-term incentives, but most projects faded once rewards dried up.

• Users eventually consolidated around ecosystems with real products, rather than scattering across dozens of chains.

At this stage, the question is no longer “How many more layer-1s do we need?” but rather: “Do we need any more at all, unless they bring true breakthroughs?” Successful infrastructures today must demonstrate clear differentiation (parallel execution, AI/DePIN optimization, native cross-chain capabilities) instead of simply promising higher TPS.

Over the next five years, two parallel trends are likely:

1. Consolidation & standardization: a small number of ecosystems will capture the majority of liquidity and developer mindshare, much like Big Tech in Web2. Smaller chains will either be absorbed or fade away.

2. Specialized layer-1s: a few new chains may still emerge, but they will focus on niches (e.g., AI-driven workloads, IoT data, or blockchain integration with traditional finance) instead of competing solely on throughput.

If this plays out, blockchain’s trajectory will no longer hinge on launching yet another layer-1, but on its ability to scale real-world applications and address socio-economic challenges at large.

Between 2020 and 2023, the number of layer-1 blockchains grew rapidly, most of them aiming to solve the same set of problems: transaction speed, high gas fees, and scalability. Yet this boom has created another issue—redundancy.

By 2025, reality has proven that only a handful of layer-1s have managed to retain liquidity, active developers, and real users. Ethereum, Solana, BNB Chain, and a few with genuine architectural innovations (like Aptos or Monad) continue to thrive, while dozens of others have turned into “ghost chains” — TVL drained, explorers showing barely any real activity.

This surplus of layer-1s has led to fragmented resources:

• Capital was spread thin, with VC money from 2021–2022 never returning to chains that failed to prove a competitive edge.

• Developers chased short-term incentives, but most projects faded once rewards dried up.

• Users eventually consolidated around ecosystems with real products, rather than scattering across dozens of chains.

At this stage, the question is no longer “How many more layer-1s do we need?” but rather: “Do we need any more at all, unless they bring true breakthroughs?” Successful infrastructures today must demonstrate clear differentiation (parallel execution, AI/DePIN optimization, native cross-chain capabilities) instead of simply promising higher TPS.

Over the next five years, two parallel trends are likely:

1. Consolidation & standardization: a small number of ecosystems will capture the majority of liquidity and developer mindshare, much like Big Tech in Web2. Smaller chains will either be absorbed or fade away.

2. Specialized layer-1s: a few new chains may still emerge, but they will focus on niches (e.g., AI-driven workloads, IoT data, or blockchain integration with traditional finance) instead of competing solely on throughput.

If this plays out, blockchain’s trajectory will no longer hinge on launching yet another layer-1, but on its ability to scale real-world applications and address socio-economic challenges at large.