Original Article:

https://mirror.xyz/into-the-unknown.eth/W2QhIAyS4XlX93RFIKC1_6yNRolriaGLLkzr3wWSAJo

My three points were:

• Supply and demand

• Investor sentiment

• Economic conditions and monetary policy

Exchange reserves are down only, reaching 15M.

The supply of Ether after The Merge in 2022 is stagnating, even deflationary. The thesis of a supply crunch is still intact. Maybe some expected larger effects sooner, but this was what I expected. Even during an extensive bear market over 2 years, and black-swan events like FTX, the price was mostly hovering around $2k. Comparing this performance with other former bear market year, it’s excellent.)

Note: With EIP 1559 in summer 2021, the Merge in September 2022 and Dencun in Q1 2024, Ethereum is having regular updates. Kudos to all the devs achieving it!

Investor sentiment is today fairly positive. Currently, everyone is talking about the lunch of a BTC ETH, and next year will be BTC halvening. So there is and will be still hype.

My investment thesis is still, that a knowledgable investor will not just ape into BTC, but find out the true power of decentralised networks.

The FED fought the inflation with an increase of interest, but it seems to cool off and a change of monetary policy is likely to happen. Keep in mind, that financial markets are forward looking so some effects might be already priced in.

https://mirror.xyz/into-the-unknown.eth/j73vRhBIZQn3Z4WEP8lMFQKFePHE0Ycrf6vPaXXzRnA

GMX has launched its v2, has won one of the largest Arbitrum STIP amounts and is using this funds with an own grants to strengthen their ecosystem. My investment thesis is still intact.

Let’s look at the protocols mentioned in the post.

https://mirror.xyz/into-the-unknown.eth/rLTxccIVdIGbBNWrPK8ZZUq-8hKOaop4huLQJkrUNLo

Buffer has undeniable a hard 2023. Their product, although fitten into the GambleFi, has not reached any hype level or even awareness. It’s still very much a niche play. But I like their improvements regarding Account Abstraction, trading gasless, etc.

Camelot could profit - and was also one of its initiator - from the Arbitrum STIP. They still build excellent partnerships, and LPing in Camelot is - due to incentives and partnerships with other protocols - profitable.

Contango did a shift away from fixed lending (yield protocol closed the door during this bear) to flexible money markets like Aave etc. and has integrated many L2’s. I like their simplistic approach and it’s much more efficient for doing low-leverage trades than other perps

Aggregator of aggregator, still my number #1 place to check trades or investments.

Defisaver is still a good infrastructure to use.

They have some partnership with Diva and swETH, giving them some well earned TVL.

Looking forward for their new v3, which has just launched. Providing leverage is still one of the main killer Apps of blockchain.

They are moving fast and try out new stuff. Got some headwinds with some of their products. Also, GMX moving away from GLP has taken their main product. Now they have just launched some GM vaults.

Flux still exists. Ondo is launching a token. Not much traction (yet).

Not available anymore. Havent checked why, they still seem to be around …

Launched their LSD stake rate swap (for stETH).

They prime product is leveraged GLP. Not sure what they have planned for 2024.

Maverick has launched their token. The DEX does fine; I think their engine could be very useful for LSDs, but would need some modifications.

Mellow still experimenting. Not much TVL. Constantely profitable automated pools seems hard to achieve.

Morpho is moving away from their Aave / Compound optimizers, and is launching Morpho Blue, their own money market.

Myso launched, still trying to get significant TVL.

Notional has just launched on Arbitrum. One of the last fixed loan protocols, which I still think, is underrated.

Numoen, still trying out new things. In general, insignificant TVL.

Still alive, but not got much traction.

They have just launched their pools, and jumping on the AI ship. Their UI looks nice, not sure, how they’ll perform. See mellow (automated trading is hard)

They are now building a perp aggregator.

Redacted launched their Dinero, a stable coin backed by their own staked ETH. Hidden hand still getting some bribes, and expanding to new protocols.

Sturdy, not so sturdy. Was exploited in 2023, they’ll relaunch with a new (hopefully more sturdier) version. All the loss of lenders was filled by them, so props to them.

No 1 of ZkSyn Era. Nough said.

Their arbitrum launch got some hype, but was only short term.

Original Article:

https://mirror.xyz/into-the-unknown.eth/W2QhIAyS4XlX93RFIKC1_6yNRolriaGLLkzr3wWSAJo

My three points were:

• Supply and demand

• Investor sentiment

• Economic conditions and monetary policy

Exchange reserves are down only, reaching 15M.

The supply of Ether after The Merge in 2022 is stagnating, even deflationary. The thesis of a supply crunch is still intact. Maybe some expected larger effects sooner, but this was what I expected. Even during an extensive bear market over 2 years, and black-swan events like FTX, the price was mostly hovering around $2k. Comparing this performance with other former bear market year, it’s excellent.)

Note: With EIP 1559 in summer 2021, the Merge in September 2022 and Dencun in Q1 2024, Ethereum is having regular updates. Kudos to all the devs achieving it!

Investor sentiment is today fairly positive. Currently, everyone is talking about the lunch of a BTC ETH, and next year will be BTC halvening. So there is and will be still hype.

My investment thesis is still, that a knowledgable investor will not just ape into BTC, but find out the true power of decentralised networks.

The FED fought the inflation with an increase of interest, but it seems to cool off and a change of monetary policy is likely to happen. Keep in mind, that financial markets are forward looking so some effects might be already priced in.

https://mirror.xyz/into-the-unknown.eth/j73vRhBIZQn3Z4WEP8lMFQKFePHE0Ycrf6vPaXXzRnA

GMX has launched its v2, has won one of the largest Arbitrum STIP amounts and is using this funds with an own grants to strengthen their ecosystem. My investment thesis is still intact.

Let’s look at the protocols mentioned in the post.

https://mirror.xyz/into-the-unknown.eth/rLTxccIVdIGbBNWrPK8ZZUq-8hKOaop4huLQJkrUNLo

Buffer has undeniable a hard 2023. Their product, although fitten into the GambleFi, has not reached any hype level or even awareness. It’s still very much a niche play. But I like their improvements regarding Account Abstraction, trading gasless, etc.

Camelot could profit - and was also one of its initiator - from the Arbitrum STIP. They still build excellent partnerships, and LPing in Camelot is - due to incentives and partnerships with other protocols - profitable.

Contango did a shift away from fixed lending (yield protocol closed the door during this bear) to flexible money markets like Aave etc. and has integrated many L2’s. I like their simplistic approach and it’s much more efficient for doing low-leverage trades than other perps

Aggregator of aggregator, still my number #1 place to check trades or investments.

Defisaver is still a good infrastructure to use.

They have some partnership with Diva and swETH, giving them some well earned TVL.

Looking forward for their new v3, which has just launched. Providing leverage is still one of the main killer Apps of blockchain.

They are moving fast and try out new stuff. Got some headwinds with some of their products. Also, GMX moving away from GLP has taken their main product. Now they have just launched some GM vaults.

Flux still exists. Ondo is launching a token. Not much traction (yet).

Not available anymore. Havent checked why, they still seem to be around …

Launched their LSD stake rate swap (for stETH).

They prime product is leveraged GLP. Not sure what they have planned for 2024.

Maverick has launched their token. The DEX does fine; I think their engine could be very useful for LSDs, but would need some modifications.

Mellow still experimenting. Not much TVL. Constantely profitable automated pools seems hard to achieve.

Morpho is moving away from their Aave / Compound optimizers, and is launching Morpho Blue, their own money market.

Myso launched, still trying to get significant TVL.

Notional has just launched on Arbitrum. One of the last fixed loan protocols, which I still think, is underrated.

Numoen, still trying out new things. In general, insignificant TVL.

Still alive, but not got much traction.

They have just launched their pools, and jumping on the AI ship. Their UI looks nice, not sure, how they’ll perform. See mellow (automated trading is hard)

They are now building a perp aggregator.

Redacted launched their Dinero, a stable coin backed by their own staked ETH. Hidden hand still getting some bribes, and expanding to new protocols.

Sturdy, not so sturdy. Was exploited in 2023, they’ll relaunch with a new (hopefully more sturdier) version. All the loss of lenders was filled by them, so props to them.

No 1 of ZkSyn Era. Nough said.

Their arbitrum launch got some hype, but was only short term.