There is a longstanding debate among crypto people about what will happen to crypto if Trump wins and what will happen if Kamala wins.
Before addressing each, let’s make a few things clear.
Macro conditions are extremely bullish.
US financial aid for COVID-19 triggered a massive bull rally in 2020. Chinese financial assistance will do the same in 2024-25.
Wars, complexities, diseases, and a ruptured economy pose challenges. However, regrettably, these unfortunate incidents affect the majority only, and the financial markets do not care about the majority. In other words, the rich will find ways to get richer, and the rich dictate the financial policies. People are likely to lose more jobs because of fears of recession, so we are only considering the crypto market. If you are interested in a macro report, do comment!
For me, there are no favorites. However, both Kamala and Trump have been actively voicing their policy direction throughout the election phase.
Simply,
Trump: I will fire Gary Gensler. Bitcoin is not bad for the US economy. Bitcoin is the future.
Kamala: More policies to regulate financial markets. Crypto is meh.
There are bots and whales waiting for the US election result to decide on the bullish aggressiveness. Obviously, if Trump wins, they will be ultra-bullish, and if Kamala wins, they are likely to delay investing.
Here is a chart comparing the performance of the stock market after the US election.
Note that stocks did not perform well in September and October, which matches the historic results.
So, we can assume that the stock market is likely to outperform other years in November and December.
If stocks perform well, crypto will outperform. So, we will be long-term bullish (6 months+) and short-term bearish (1 month) if Kamala wins. At the same time, we will be long-term bullish (3 months+) and short-term bullish if Trump wins.
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