Hi friends 👋,

Happy Wednesday! Sorry for the late email – I was ready to send yesterday, but I didn’t like the draft and I want this one to be good, so I started rewriting it at 8:30 am yesterday. 

I could be wrong – I often am – and I certainly don’t have a good enough crystal ball to predict the timing or the specifics, but it’s my best distillation of the way things are moving and what that might mean for tech companies. 

Think of it as half-prediction, half-thought exercise.

Let’s get to it.  

Tech is going to get so much bigger in the next decade or two that it will make everything up until now look quaint by comparison. We’re standing on that part of the curve that looks steep in the present but will look prairie flat looking back from the future. 

I’ve been writing around various parts of this thesis for a while. The simple version comes from Working Harder and Smarter, which I wrote last September: 

• Until the 1970s, tech was about hardware. 

• From the 1970s to today, tech has been about software. 

• From here on out, tech will be about the combination of software and hardware. 

That was 14 months ago, and already so much has changed. 

The Tesla AI Day at which they unveiled Optimus was still three weeks away. Now Optimus can do this:

Hi friends 👋,

Happy Wednesday! Sorry for the late email – I was ready to send yesterday, but I didn’t like the draft and I want this one to be good, so I started rewriting it at 8:30 am yesterday. 

I could be wrong – I often am – and I certainly don’t have a good enough crystal ball to predict the timing or the specifics, but it’s my best distillation of the way things are moving and what that might mean for tech companies. 

Think of it as half-prediction, half-thought exercise.

Let’s get to it.  

Tech is going to get so much bigger in the next decade or two that it will make everything up until now look quaint by comparison. We’re standing on that part of the curve that looks steep in the present but will look prairie flat looking back from the future. 

I’ve been writing around various parts of this thesis for a while. The simple version comes from Working Harder and Smarter, which I wrote last September: 

• Until the 1970s, tech was about hardware. 

• From the 1970s to today, tech has been about software. 

• From here on out, tech will be about the combination of software and hardware. 

That was 14 months ago, and already so much has changed. 

The Tesla AI Day at which they unveiled Optimus was still three weeks away. Now Optimus can do this: