jer979Purpose Struggle
Yesterday, I decided that my blogging career should come to an end. I was doing myself a disservice. I told myself that the goal of the posts was to dig deeper, peel back the layers, get down to the core. But by publishing online (or on-chain as the case may be), I was subconsciously writing for others, even if I told myself that I didn't care if others read. So, in an effort to be more authentic, I figured I'd stop publishing and start doing a private journal. Within 2 hours of that decision...
jer979Value. Happiness.
I feel happy. It's fun, it's light, like a feather floating at the beginning of Forrest Gump. But, like the feather, it's not grounded. It can flitter and float away. Value is also ephemeral. We know it when we see it. We feel it, somewhere deep inside. Something connects to us, saying "yes, this is worth it." The "it" that it's worth is energy. Energy in the form of time, attention, money. The things of which our possession is limited. There's a reason why all the great traditions point to "...
jer979Coffee with AI
Every day for the past month, I’ve had a coffee date with AI. I literally sit down, with a cup of coffee, with an appointment on my calendar that says “coffee with AI”. During that time, AI (I’ve used ChatGPT, Gemini, Perplexity, Claude, and Venice) and I literally have a chat, the way I would with a friend. It’s not “write this letter for me” or “do this or that.” No, it’s a chance for us to have a conversation about whatever topic I want. Many days, recently, at least, it’s been about quant...
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jer979Purpose Struggle
Yesterday, I decided that my blogging career should come to an end. I was doing myself a disservice. I told myself that the goal of the posts was to dig deeper, peel back the layers, get down to the core. But by publishing online (or on-chain as the case may be), I was subconsciously writing for others, even if I told myself that I didn't care if others read. So, in an effort to be more authentic, I figured I'd stop publishing and start doing a private journal. Within 2 hours of that decision...
jer979Value. Happiness.
I feel happy. It's fun, it's light, like a feather floating at the beginning of Forrest Gump. But, like the feather, it's not grounded. It can flitter and float away. Value is also ephemeral. We know it when we see it. We feel it, somewhere deep inside. Something connects to us, saying "yes, this is worth it." The "it" that it's worth is energy. Energy in the form of time, attention, money. The things of which our possession is limited. There's a reason why all the great traditions point to "...
jer979Coffee with AI
Every day for the past month, I’ve had a coffee date with AI. I literally sit down, with a cup of coffee, with an appointment on my calendar that says “coffee with AI”. During that time, AI (I’ve used ChatGPT, Gemini, Perplexity, Claude, and Venice) and I literally have a chat, the way I would with a friend. It’s not “write this letter for me” or “do this or that.” No, it’s a chance for us to have a conversation about whatever topic I want. Many days, recently, at least, it’s been about quant...
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jer979Volcker and Inflation
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jer979Volcker and Inflation
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One of the things I’ve been hearing a lot is a comparison between what people expect the Fed to do today to curb inflation versus what Fed Chairman Paul Volcker did in the late 70s and early 1980s.
During that time, inflation hit 14% and Volcker raised interest rates to 18% to slow things down.
It worked.
Here’s the question I was asking myself this morning…
What was the total US debt at that time?
What was the US gov’t deficit at that time?
What were the debt and deficit to GDP ratios?
So I looked it up.
In 1980, for example, the total US debt was $908 billion and debt to GDP was 32%.
Today, it is $30 trillion and 124%
Meanwhile, the deficit was $74 billion and a deficit to GDP ratio of 2.6%
Today it is $12.7 trillion and 12.1%, with the last two years being the first time since WWII that that ratio eclipsed double digits.
There was an Op-Ed in the WSJ the other day, which I can’t find at the moment, talking about the impact to interest payments if the Fed continues to raise rates.
Bottom line: not good. They soon become overwhelming, which is why I am skeptical that it can continue.
My bet is that the Fed would rather have higher inflation and not crush the government’s ability to function, than the reverse.
I’m not a macro-economist, but that’s how I’m reading the tea leaves today.
The numbers just don’t intuitively add up for me.
One of the things I’ve been hearing a lot is a comparison between what people expect the Fed to do today to curb inflation versus what Fed Chairman Paul Volcker did in the late 70s and early 1980s.
During that time, inflation hit 14% and Volcker raised interest rates to 18% to slow things down.
It worked.
Here’s the question I was asking myself this morning…
What was the total US debt at that time?
What was the US gov’t deficit at that time?
What were the debt and deficit to GDP ratios?
So I looked it up.
In 1980, for example, the total US debt was $908 billion and debt to GDP was 32%.
Today, it is $30 trillion and 124%
Meanwhile, the deficit was $74 billion and a deficit to GDP ratio of 2.6%
Today it is $12.7 trillion and 12.1%, with the last two years being the first time since WWII that that ratio eclipsed double digits.
There was an Op-Ed in the WSJ the other day, which I can’t find at the moment, talking about the impact to interest payments if the Fed continues to raise rates.
Bottom line: not good. They soon become overwhelming, which is why I am skeptical that it can continue.
My bet is that the Fed would rather have higher inflation and not crush the government’s ability to function, than the reverse.
I’m not a macro-economist, but that’s how I’m reading the tea leaves today.
The numbers just don’t intuitively add up for me.
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