Background

The first acquaintance happened in ancient times when I tried mining - then Bitcoin cost less than a dollar (like, something around 10-11 cents). I started the miner - I figured that I would spend 800 rubles on electricity and mine the same amount (and that's not a fact), and scored. It was interesting to launch, set up - curiosity was satisfied. Obviously, I didn't have Marty McFly to tell me what was going to happen next. And he would be useful - I suspect that even if he had mined, then he would have sold joyfully for $10, a maximum of $100.

Then sometimes I read something about consensus and in general what to do with this beast. The milestone was the emergence of Ethereum and smart contracts.

At first, I just played with coding contracts, then there was a small contribution to the open library of smart contracts (OpenZeppelin), a prototype of the game, which I never uploaded to the chain - it's all a hobby. Occasional consulting - during the ICO hype, I thought through tokenomics (fortunately, I quickly figured it out), and basically it turned out ... to dissuade people from launching projects. He helped to fantasize in more detail about future crypto projects, to see how the model fits current businesses and, often, to understand what doesn’t really fit. Real requests were for integration - data collection, tracking balances and transactions, which in scale (and in essence) is not comparable to visionary ideas. There were also pet-projects near the crypt - but for fun, when you are interested in something, you are drawn to coding for self-expression.

Last year, the NFT hype happened, which was surprising at the time, because there were the same CryptoKitties a few years ago. And this is not just an NFT - there are game mechanics, the ability to rent a cat. And here are just pictures.

At the same time, I built a quite successful career, and then I started a startup in classical IT, in web2. In short, I worked with cool guys and launched awesome projects.

And everything would be fine, but when the new NFT hype began to subside, I was drawn seriously. And now I understand why.

What did I understand First, I have seen the ups and downs in crypto over the years. And every time it's the same. On the tide, new people come running, on the downturn, there is a lot of talk about the fact that "everything is crypto". But every time a new rise is higher than the previous one (higher the starting point, higher the peak point) - and first of all, expressed in the number of people involved, not only in the prices of Bitcoin. That is, this is a stable growth of mass adoption, and cycles are simply distracting in the moment.

Secondly, it has become customary that the blockchain is about technology and about geeks. But more and more people are in the subject who are far from technology and geekanotus. And this... a good signal is a harbinger of that very adoption.

Thirdly, products become more convenient, the entry barrier for users is reduced. This causes some backlash from decentralization. But, probably, the decentralization of everything and everyone is a kind of utopia. Yes, and not an end in itself. The main thing is what users get (this is a separate very broad topic). UX is still bad in many ways, but people are starting to think about it - and that's great.

Fourthly, the creator economy model is developing - with blockchain (for example, NFT projects) and without it (the same Roblox). In terms of infrastructure, blockchain fits perfectly into these models. But, for real, it is still not built - and therefore inflames the excitement of both the engineer and the entrepreneur.

Fifthly, it is noticeable how very cool guys come here (in the industry) - open, driven. This is similar to the old days in IT, when there was less demand for corporate gallery owners, and more for startups, magicians and magicians. And it is clear that these guys do not come here to hype NFTs - but seriously and for a long time. And therefore it is clear that they will build many interesting projects that will move the industry forward. Want to be a part of this.

Sixth, the share of investment in web3 is growing. Yes, now they are foreshadowing both a general global crisis and a crypto-winter, but the trend is clear, expressed in numbers.

The absolute number of investments in crypto-startups has been growing, and it can be assumed that even taking into account the crises, the relative one will continue to grow. I think this is also related to the previous point - people come to the industry who are ready to move it, and investors follow them. And those who came will be in full readiness for the next ascent.

Seventh, there is always a doubt - maybe blockchain technologies are really "everything", have reached their peak and will slow down. There is an interesting graph - a comparison of the Internet adoption and several metrics from Ethereum:

One can argue about the correctness of such a comparison, but given that the graph is logarithmic and even if less popular chains are taken into account, we are, if not in 1995, then in 1996-1997 according to the highest estimates. We are now with static HTML pages, dial-ups, no cell phones and slow PCs. So, there is definitely a lot of work. And amazing prospects.

Cons Of course, there are also dark sides. And these dark sides are most visible from the outside. These are endless Ponzi schemes, and meaningless hype and launches "to the moon" to collapse later, and scalping trading and courses on them that will not bring the promised.

With a reputation, in general, everything is bad - because there are orders of magnitude more "letters from an uncle from Africa". But just as email is not about scam emails, web3 is not about scam. With scam (and spam), as well as other growing pains, they learned how to deal with the classic web, and they must learn here (more precisely, it's up to us, the developers, to build solutions).

Why else can you be optimistic here: it’s just that the new attracts those who want to quickly cash in on this new one. The more mature the audience (this is part of the mass adoption), the less people fall for various tricks. It can be compared with online courses - the wave of "successful success" courses has passed. But people got used to the format, learned to choose, schools with a reputation appeared. People just got used to it and use it. Those who hyped fell off and those who created something valuable and long-term remained.

Total Did I invent Marty McFly or not - but now everything looks so that the growth will still be colossal. And figs with them with non-mined bitcoins. Now you need to go into the industry, as it is still in its early stages. You need to invest in yourself, in the knowledge of technology and create cool products. It's like going into IT within IT. We need to go deeper.

Background

The first acquaintance happened in ancient times when I tried mining - then Bitcoin cost less than a dollar (like, something around 10-11 cents). I started the miner - I figured that I would spend 800 rubles on electricity and mine the same amount (and that's not a fact), and scored. It was interesting to launch, set up - curiosity was satisfied. Obviously, I didn't have Marty McFly to tell me what was going to happen next. And he would be useful - I suspect that even if he had mined, then he would have sold joyfully for $10, a maximum of $100.

Then sometimes I read something about consensus and in general what to do with this beast. The milestone was the emergence of Ethereum and smart contracts.

At first, I just played with coding contracts, then there was a small contribution to the open library of smart contracts (OpenZeppelin), a prototype of the game, which I never uploaded to the chain - it's all a hobby. Occasional consulting - during the ICO hype, I thought through tokenomics (fortunately, I quickly figured it out), and basically it turned out ... to dissuade people from launching projects. He helped to fantasize in more detail about future crypto projects, to see how the model fits current businesses and, often, to understand what doesn’t really fit. Real requests were for integration - data collection, tracking balances and transactions, which in scale (and in essence) is not comparable to visionary ideas. There were also pet-projects near the crypt - but for fun, when you are interested in something, you are drawn to coding for self-expression.

Last year, the NFT hype happened, which was surprising at the time, because there were the same CryptoKitties a few years ago. And this is not just an NFT - there are game mechanics, the ability to rent a cat. And here are just pictures.

At the same time, I built a quite successful career, and then I started a startup in classical IT, in web2. In short, I worked with cool guys and launched awesome projects.

And everything would be fine, but when the new NFT hype began to subside, I was drawn seriously. And now I understand why.

What did I understand First, I have seen the ups and downs in crypto over the years. And every time it's the same. On the tide, new people come running, on the downturn, there is a lot of talk about the fact that "everything is crypto". But every time a new rise is higher than the previous one (higher the starting point, higher the peak point) - and first of all, expressed in the number of people involved, not only in the prices of Bitcoin. That is, this is a stable growth of mass adoption, and cycles are simply distracting in the moment.

Secondly, it has become customary that the blockchain is about technology and about geeks. But more and more people are in the subject who are far from technology and geekanotus. And this... a good signal is a harbinger of that very adoption.

Thirdly, products become more convenient, the entry barrier for users is reduced. This causes some backlash from decentralization. But, probably, the decentralization of everything and everyone is a kind of utopia. Yes, and not an end in itself. The main thing is what users get (this is a separate very broad topic). UX is still bad in many ways, but people are starting to think about it - and that's great.

Fourthly, the creator economy model is developing - with blockchain (for example, NFT projects) and without it (the same Roblox). In terms of infrastructure, blockchain fits perfectly into these models. But, for real, it is still not built - and therefore inflames the excitement of both the engineer and the entrepreneur.

Fifthly, it is noticeable how very cool guys come here (in the industry) - open, driven. This is similar to the old days in IT, when there was less demand for corporate gallery owners, and more for startups, magicians and magicians. And it is clear that these guys do not come here to hype NFTs - but seriously and for a long time. And therefore it is clear that they will build many interesting projects that will move the industry forward. Want to be a part of this.

Sixth, the share of investment in web3 is growing. Yes, now they are foreshadowing both a general global crisis and a crypto-winter, but the trend is clear, expressed in numbers.

The absolute number of investments in crypto-startups has been growing, and it can be assumed that even taking into account the crises, the relative one will continue to grow. I think this is also related to the previous point - people come to the industry who are ready to move it, and investors follow them. And those who came will be in full readiness for the next ascent.

Seventh, there is always a doubt - maybe blockchain technologies are really "everything", have reached their peak and will slow down. There is an interesting graph - a comparison of the Internet adoption and several metrics from Ethereum:

One can argue about the correctness of such a comparison, but given that the graph is logarithmic and even if less popular chains are taken into account, we are, if not in 1995, then in 1996-1997 according to the highest estimates. We are now with static HTML pages, dial-ups, no cell phones and slow PCs. So, there is definitely a lot of work. And amazing prospects.

Cons Of course, there are also dark sides. And these dark sides are most visible from the outside. These are endless Ponzi schemes, and meaningless hype and launches "to the moon" to collapse later, and scalping trading and courses on them that will not bring the promised.

With a reputation, in general, everything is bad - because there are orders of magnitude more "letters from an uncle from Africa". But just as email is not about scam emails, web3 is not about scam. With scam (and spam), as well as other growing pains, they learned how to deal with the classic web, and they must learn here (more precisely, it's up to us, the developers, to build solutions).

Why else can you be optimistic here: it’s just that the new attracts those who want to quickly cash in on this new one. The more mature the audience (this is part of the mass adoption), the less people fall for various tricks. It can be compared with online courses - the wave of "successful success" courses has passed. But people got used to the format, learned to choose, schools with a reputation appeared. People just got used to it and use it. Those who hyped fell off and those who created something valuable and long-term remained.

Total Did I invent Marty McFly or not - but now everything looks so that the growth will still be colossal. And figs with them with non-mined bitcoins. Now you need to go into the industry, as it is still in its early stages. You need to invest in yourself, in the knowledge of technology and create cool products. It's like going into IT within IT. We need to go deeper.