https://ethropy.substack.com/p/2022-blockchain-bold-predictions?token=eyJ1c2VyX2lkIjoyNjI4OTU4NywicG9zdF9pZCI6NDYwNjA1NDcsIl8iOiJYanU5diIsImlhdCI6MTY0MDU3MDU0MCwiZXhwIjoxNjQwNTc0MTQwLCJpc3MiOiJwdWItMzIyODE1Iiwic3ViIjoicG9zdC1yZWFjdGlvbiJ9.fBcs9qDPCYvCsFK0LrSfNVHf1D-G84VyHxJCVLbbnSg

撰文：Adam

编译：TechFlow Friends 

注：这是ethropy主理人Adam关于2022加密世界的预测，内容涵盖DeFi/L1/WEB3。

DeFi：

1）DeFi TVL 将超过 1 T 美元

2）链上声誉将取代新协议荒谬的“白名单”流程

3）Argent 和 Dharma 都将推出代币，但会提前宣布，以促进主流移动 DeFi 的采用

4）UST 仍将是排名第一的去中心化稳定币，其增长速度将超过 USDT/USDC

5）跨链桥接基础设施将成为一个巨大的增长领域，并被内置到 DEX、收益聚合器、货币市场和其他重要的 DApp 中

6）将有9位数的DeFi漏洞，但漏洞总数将不到2021年的一半

7）从 2021 年开始，大多数“元宇宙”回报将类似于 DeFi

8）抵押的 ETH 衍生品将从 2021 年（rETH、stETH 等）增长 10 倍，成为仅次于 ETH 的第二大 DeFi 抵押品形式

9）通过 KYC 和信用委托进行的抵押不足贷款将成为一种日益增长的叙述。Aave ARC 和 Maple Finance 是明显的领导者，而 Compound Treasury 紧随其后。

10）最大的以美元计价的空投将来自 ZKSync 生态系统。Zapper、Zerion 和 DeBank 都将进行空投

11）NFTFi 将是一个重要的叙述。早期采用者的 NFT 可以兑换代币，NFT 用于声誉/访问门控（例如，Yearn Blue Pill），产生收益的 NFT

12）一个主要的 CEX 将与 Rocket Pool 合作进行 ETH 质押，以试图表现出支持去中心化的一面。CEX 将运行节点以及板载客户到 rETH。

第 1 层：

1）Cosmos 应用链将产生最多的新钱包、最高的回报和 TVL 增长。

2）以太坊合并将至少延迟 2 个月，但要成功，就像之前的所有其他硬分叉一样

3）以太坊费用将保持高位，但将推出一个 DApp，通过套利或流动市场来补贴天然气费用。Weiward 是一个很好的第一次尝试，但其他人会出现

4）随着智能合约层产生更多价值，比特币的主导地位将继续下降

5）多链世界将继续存在，可扩展性三难问题将继续成为讨论的话题。

6）Arbitrum 和 Optimism 将推出代币和开发者/生态系统激励措施，并超越 2021 年顶级替代 L1（Solana、Terra、Avalanche、Fantom）

7）Jack Dorsey 将继续是 BTC 的最高主义者，并通过将元素合并到 Block 中来推动比特币/闪电网络上的 DeFi 向前发展。

8）比特币上的 DeFi 不会得到广泛采用，TVL 的增长将低于顶级 SC 层（ETH、BNB、SOL、LUNA、AVAX、ADA、DOT、MATIC、ALGO、NEAR）

9）由于缺乏足够的去中心化，主要的第 1 层区块链（> $ 5b 市值）将受到 51% 的攻击

WEB3文化：

1）由于不断扩大的多链世界，每个人都需要实习生

2）员工为 Web3 和加密原生工作（建设者、DAO、投资者）离开公司工作的趋势并非一时兴起，并将持续下去

3）一个重要的有名无实的加密货币领袖将获得诺贝尔奖

4）5 大科技公司之一（FAANG）将直接接受稳定币作为付款

5）Discord 将推进 Metamask 集成并成为首选的 Web3 工作区

6）Jack Dorsey离开后，Twitter 将严重依赖 Web3

宏观层面：

1）至少有 5 个国家将采用 BTC 作为法定货币，可能在拉丁美洲和非洲

2）一家大银行将接受加密货币作为抵押的抵押品

3）Michael Saylor 和 Nayib Bukele 将购买更多 BTC

4）$COIN 将跑赢 $JPM

5）2022 年中期选举期间，多名美国众议院和参议院候选人将接受加密货币进行竞选捐款，其中一人将向捐助者发放 NFT

6）随着买卖双方（空头/多头）试图在市场上抢先交易，链上分析的激增将抑制波动性。加密货币的增长将主要取决于宏观经济政策，并表现为标准普尔 500 指数的高贝塔资产。如果出现高通胀、加息和加速缩减（鹰派美联储政策），加密货币将进入熊市。OTOH，鸽派美联储看好加密货币，流入/回报将优于 TradFi。后一种情况和持续的牛市将在 2022 年上演。

7）一个国家将尝试在区块链上发行全民基本收入（UBI）

DEFI:

• DeFi TVL will surpass $1t

• On-chain reputation will replace the ridiculous ‘whitelisting’ process for new protocols

• Argent and Dharma will both launch a token, but announce it in advance, to promote mainstream mobile DeFi adoption

• UST will remain the #1 decentralized stablecoin and grow faster than USDT/USDC

• Crosschain bridge infrastructure will be an enormous growth sector and be built into DEXs, yield aggregators, money markets, and other important DApps

• There will be a 9 figure DeFi exploit, but the total number of exploits will be less than half of 2021

• The majority of ‘metaverse’ returns will resemble DeFi from 2021

• Staked ETH derivatives will grow 10X from 2021 (rETH, stETH, etc) and be the second largest form of DeFi collateral behind ETH

• Undercollateralized lending via KYC and credit delegation will be a growing narrative. Aave ARC and Maple Finance are clear leaders, with Compound Treasury close behind.

• The biggest $ denominated airdrop will come from the ZKSync ecosystem. Zapper, Zerion, and DeBank will all have airdrops

• NFTFi will be a major narrative. NFTs for early adopters that can be exchanged for tokens, NFTs for reputation/access gating (e.g. Yearn Blue Pill), yield bearing NFTs

• A major CEX will partner with Rocket Pool for ETH staking in an attempt to appear pro-decentralization. The CEX will run nodes as well as onboard customers’ to rETH.

LAYER 1:

• Cosmos app chains will produce the largest number of new wallets, highest returns, and TVL increase. 

• The Ethereum Merge will be delayed by at least 2 months, but be successful, just like every other previous hard forks

• Ethereum fees will stay high, but a DApp will launch that subsidizes gas fees profitably through arbitrage or liquid markets. Weiward was a good first attempt, but others will emerge

• Bitcoin dominance will continue to fall as smart contract layers accrue more value

• The multichain world is here to stay and the scalability trilemma will continue to be a topic of discussion. 

• Arbitrum and Optimism will launch a token and developer/ecosystem incentives and outperform the top 2021 alternative L1’s (Solana, Terra, Avalanche, Fantom)

• Jack Dorsey will remain a BTC maximalist and push the DeFi on Bitcoin/Lightning network forward by incorporating elements into Block.

• DeFi on Bitcoin will not get broad adoption, and TVL growth will be less than the top SC layers (ETH, BNB, SOL, LUNA, AVAX, ADA, DOT, MATIC, ALGO, NEAR)

• A major Layer 1 blockchain (>$5b market cap) will be 51% attacked due to a lack of adequate decentralization

WEB3 CULTURE:

• Everyone will need an intern due to the ever expanding multichain universe

• The trend of employees leaving corporate jobs for Web3 and crypto native jobs (builders, DAOs, investors) is not a fad, and will continue

• A major cryptocurrency figurehead will win the Nobel Prize

• One of the big 5 tech companies (FAANG) will accept stablecoins as payment, directly

• Discord will move ahead with Metamask integration and become the go-to Web3 workspace

• Twitter will heavily lean into Web3 after Jack Dorsey’s departure

MACRO:

• At least 5 more countries will adopt BTC as legal tender, likely in Latin America and Africa

• A major bank will accept cryptocurrency as collateral for mortgages

• Michael Saylor and Nayib Bukele will buy more BTC

• $COIN will outperform $JPM

• Multiple US House and Senate candidates during the 2022 mid-term elections will accept cryptocurrency for campaign donations, and one will issue an NFT to contributors

• The proliferation of on-chain analytics will dampen volatility as buyers and sellers (shorts/longs) try to front run each other in the markets. Cryptocurrency growth will primarily depend on macroeconomic policy and behave as a high beta asset to the S&P500. Should high inflation, rate hikes, and accelerated tapering (hawkish fed policy) occur, cryptocurrency will go into a bear market. OTOH, dovish Fed is bullilsh for crypto and inflows/returns will outperform TradFi. The latter situation and continued bull market will play out in 2022.

• A country will experiment with issuing Universal Basic Income (UBI) on the blockchain

https://ethropy.substack.com/p/2022-blockchain-bold-predictions?token=eyJ1c2VyX2lkIjoyNjI4OTU4NywicG9zdF9pZCI6NDYwNjA1NDcsIl8iOiJYanU5diIsImlhdCI6MTY0MDU3MDU0MCwiZXhwIjoxNjQwNTc0MTQwLCJpc3MiOiJwdWItMzIyODE1Iiwic3ViIjoicG9zdC1yZWFjdGlvbiJ9.fBcs9qDPCYvCsFK0LrSfNVHf1D-G84VyHxJCVLbbnSg

撰文：Adam

编译：TechFlow Friends 

注：这是ethropy主理人Adam关于2022加密世界的预测，内容涵盖DeFi/L1/WEB3。

DeFi：

1）DeFi TVL 将超过 1 T 美元

2）链上声誉将取代新协议荒谬的“白名单”流程

3）Argent 和 Dharma 都将推出代币，但会提前宣布，以促进主流移动 DeFi 的采用

4）UST 仍将是排名第一的去中心化稳定币，其增长速度将超过 USDT/USDC

5）跨链桥接基础设施将成为一个巨大的增长领域，并被内置到 DEX、收益聚合器、货币市场和其他重要的 DApp 中

6）将有9位数的DeFi漏洞，但漏洞总数将不到2021年的一半

7）从 2021 年开始，大多数“元宇宙”回报将类似于 DeFi

8）抵押的 ETH 衍生品将从 2021 年（rETH、stETH 等）增长 10 倍，成为仅次于 ETH 的第二大 DeFi 抵押品形式

9）通过 KYC 和信用委托进行的抵押不足贷款将成为一种日益增长的叙述。Aave ARC 和 Maple Finance 是明显的领导者，而 Compound Treasury 紧随其后。

10）最大的以美元计价的空投将来自 ZKSync 生态系统。Zapper、Zerion 和 DeBank 都将进行空投

11）NFTFi 将是一个重要的叙述。早期采用者的 NFT 可以兑换代币，NFT 用于声誉/访问门控（例如，Yearn Blue Pill），产生收益的 NFT

12）一个主要的 CEX 将与 Rocket Pool 合作进行 ETH 质押，以试图表现出支持去中心化的一面。CEX 将运行节点以及板载客户到 rETH。

第 1 层：

1）Cosmos 应用链将产生最多的新钱包、最高的回报和 TVL 增长。

2）以太坊合并将至少延迟 2 个月，但要成功，就像之前的所有其他硬分叉一样

3）以太坊费用将保持高位，但将推出一个 DApp，通过套利或流动市场来补贴天然气费用。Weiward 是一个很好的第一次尝试，但其他人会出现

4）随着智能合约层产生更多价值，比特币的主导地位将继续下降

5）多链世界将继续存在，可扩展性三难问题将继续成为讨论的话题。

6）Arbitrum 和 Optimism 将推出代币和开发者/生态系统激励措施，并超越 2021 年顶级替代 L1（Solana、Terra、Avalanche、Fantom）

7）Jack Dorsey 将继续是 BTC 的最高主义者，并通过将元素合并到 Block 中来推动比特币/闪电网络上的 DeFi 向前发展。

8）比特币上的 DeFi 不会得到广泛采用，TVL 的增长将低于顶级 SC 层（ETH、BNB、SOL、LUNA、AVAX、ADA、DOT、MATIC、ALGO、NEAR）

9）由于缺乏足够的去中心化，主要的第 1 层区块链（> $ 5b 市值）将受到 51% 的攻击

WEB3文化：

1）由于不断扩大的多链世界，每个人都需要实习生

2）员工为 Web3 和加密原生工作（建设者、DAO、投资者）离开公司工作的趋势并非一时兴起，并将持续下去

3）一个重要的有名无实的加密货币领袖将获得诺贝尔奖

4）5 大科技公司之一（FAANG）将直接接受稳定币作为付款

5）Discord 将推进 Metamask 集成并成为首选的 Web3 工作区

6）Jack Dorsey离开后，Twitter 将严重依赖 Web3

宏观层面：

1）至少有 5 个国家将采用 BTC 作为法定货币，可能在拉丁美洲和非洲

2）一家大银行将接受加密货币作为抵押的抵押品

3）Michael Saylor 和 Nayib Bukele 将购买更多 BTC

4）$COIN 将跑赢 $JPM

5）2022 年中期选举期间，多名美国众议院和参议院候选人将接受加密货币进行竞选捐款，其中一人将向捐助者发放 NFT

6）随着买卖双方（空头/多头）试图在市场上抢先交易，链上分析的激增将抑制波动性。加密货币的增长将主要取决于宏观经济政策，并表现为标准普尔 500 指数的高贝塔资产。如果出现高通胀、加息和加速缩减（鹰派美联储政策），加密货币将进入熊市。OTOH，鸽派美联储看好加密货币，流入/回报将优于 TradFi。后一种情况和持续的牛市将在 2022 年上演。

7）一个国家将尝试在区块链上发行全民基本收入（UBI）

DEFI:

• DeFi TVL will surpass $1t

• On-chain reputation will replace the ridiculous ‘whitelisting’ process for new protocols

• Argent and Dharma will both launch a token, but announce it in advance, to promote mainstream mobile DeFi adoption

• UST will remain the #1 decentralized stablecoin and grow faster than USDT/USDC

• Crosschain bridge infrastructure will be an enormous growth sector and be built into DEXs, yield aggregators, money markets, and other important DApps

• There will be a 9 figure DeFi exploit, but the total number of exploits will be less than half of 2021

• The majority of ‘metaverse’ returns will resemble DeFi from 2021

• Staked ETH derivatives will grow 10X from 2021 (rETH, stETH, etc) and be the second largest form of DeFi collateral behind ETH

• Undercollateralized lending via KYC and credit delegation will be a growing narrative. Aave ARC and Maple Finance are clear leaders, with Compound Treasury close behind.

• The biggest $ denominated airdrop will come from the ZKSync ecosystem. Zapper, Zerion, and DeBank will all have airdrops

• NFTFi will be a major narrative. NFTs for early adopters that can be exchanged for tokens, NFTs for reputation/access gating (e.g. Yearn Blue Pill), yield bearing NFTs

• A major CEX will partner with Rocket Pool for ETH staking in an attempt to appear pro-decentralization. The CEX will run nodes as well as onboard customers’ to rETH.

LAYER 1:

• Cosmos app chains will produce the largest number of new wallets, highest returns, and TVL increase. 

• The Ethereum Merge will be delayed by at least 2 months, but be successful, just like every other previous hard forks

• Ethereum fees will stay high, but a DApp will launch that subsidizes gas fees profitably through arbitrage or liquid markets. Weiward was a good first attempt, but others will emerge

• Bitcoin dominance will continue to fall as smart contract layers accrue more value

• The multichain world is here to stay and the scalability trilemma will continue to be a topic of discussion. 

• Arbitrum and Optimism will launch a token and developer/ecosystem incentives and outperform the top 2021 alternative L1’s (Solana, Terra, Avalanche, Fantom)

• Jack Dorsey will remain a BTC maximalist and push the DeFi on Bitcoin/Lightning network forward by incorporating elements into Block.

• DeFi on Bitcoin will not get broad adoption, and TVL growth will be less than the top SC layers (ETH, BNB, SOL, LUNA, AVAX, ADA, DOT, MATIC, ALGO, NEAR)

• A major Layer 1 blockchain (>$5b market cap) will be 51% attacked due to a lack of adequate decentralization

WEB3 CULTURE:

• Everyone will need an intern due to the ever expanding multichain universe

• The trend of employees leaving corporate jobs for Web3 and crypto native jobs (builders, DAOs, investors) is not a fad, and will continue

• A major cryptocurrency figurehead will win the Nobel Prize

• One of the big 5 tech companies (FAANG) will accept stablecoins as payment, directly

• Discord will move ahead with Metamask integration and become the go-to Web3 workspace

• Twitter will heavily lean into Web3 after Jack Dorsey’s departure

MACRO:

• At least 5 more countries will adopt BTC as legal tender, likely in Latin America and Africa

• A major bank will accept cryptocurrency as collateral for mortgages

• Michael Saylor and Nayib Bukele will buy more BTC

• $COIN will outperform $JPM

• Multiple US House and Senate candidates during the 2022 mid-term elections will accept cryptocurrency for campaign donations, and one will issue an NFT to contributors

• The proliferation of on-chain analytics will dampen volatility as buyers and sellers (shorts/longs) try to front run each other in the markets. Cryptocurrency growth will primarily depend on macroeconomic policy and behave as a high beta asset to the S&P500. Should high inflation, rate hikes, and accelerated tapering (hawkish fed policy) occur, cryptocurrency will go into a bear market. OTOH, dovish Fed is bullilsh for crypto and inflows/returns will outperform TradFi. The latter situation and continued bull market will play out in 2022.

• A country will experiment with issuing Universal Basic Income (UBI) on the blockchain