Onchain
Words matter. “The limits of my language means the limits of my world,” Ludwig Wittgenstein famously wrote. This is one of the reasons why I welcome the recent discussion about words to describe end-user use cases and technological developments in the crypto community. Crypto – do we still use that word? (Yes.) https://twitter.com/jessepollak/status/1764742947218858477 Base has recently started using ‘onchain‘ to describe many of the phenomena previously associated with the term 'web3&ap...
Consumer Product Moment
One reason centralized exchanges have flourished is because of the high access barriers today's self-custodial solutions, wallets and hardware security devices, still have. We have seen where this approach has led us. Self-custody software interfaces are still rudimentary, can be confusing and current hardware security devices are clunky, look like USB sticks (which can distort the perception and make it look like the owned assets are actually stored on the device, like a hard drive) and...
Thoughts on Wolf Game
Recently, Wolf Game launched their second mini-game (or pre-game): Cave Game. This is their first 3rd-person-view game, after the previous mini-game Alpha Game was interface-only, where users could stake their NFT assets in one of several Wolf Packs to compete for $WOOL — the game's native currency, which can then can be used to buy digital objects within the game’s internal economy in the yet-to-be released full game. Risk-based NFT Games Wolf Game was a pioneer in combining NFT and DeF...
Onchain
Words matter. “The limits of my language means the limits of my world,” Ludwig Wittgenstein famously wrote. This is one of the reasons why I welcome the recent discussion about words to describe end-user use cases and technological developments in the crypto community. Crypto – do we still use that word? (Yes.) https://twitter.com/jessepollak/status/1764742947218858477 Base has recently started using ‘onchain‘ to describe many of the phenomena previously associated with the term 'web3&ap...
Consumer Product Moment
One reason centralized exchanges have flourished is because of the high access barriers today's self-custodial solutions, wallets and hardware security devices, still have. We have seen where this approach has led us. Self-custody software interfaces are still rudimentary, can be confusing and current hardware security devices are clunky, look like USB sticks (which can distort the perception and make it look like the owned assets are actually stored on the device, like a hard drive) and...
Thoughts on Wolf Game
Recently, Wolf Game launched their second mini-game (or pre-game): Cave Game. This is their first 3rd-person-view game, after the previous mini-game Alpha Game was interface-only, where users could stake their NFT assets in one of several Wolf Packs to compete for $WOOL — the game's native currency, which can then can be used to buy digital objects within the game’s internal economy in the yet-to-be released full game. Risk-based NFT Games Wolf Game was a pioneer in combining NFT and DeF...
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There is this anecdote about Joe Kennedy, JFK’s father, who got out of the stock market shortly before the Great Depression, because his shoeshine boy gave him investment tips. It is now referred to the Shoeshine Boy Indicator.
I think we’re at a stage of the NFT (collectibles) market, where scams, rug pulls and unethical influencer behavior are everywhere, with some estimates as high as 80% of all current NFT (PFP?) projects. This comes in addition to the usual “number go up” and “to the moon” shills and paper hand “accusations” for those taking profits, which have long been common in NFT collecting.
There definitely is an NFT speculation cycle going on right now, which evidently has to come to an end some time. Everybody and their mother are talking about NFTs and cryptocurrencies.
But right now, in my subjective perception, the promises of “get rich quick”, which attract average retail investors frustrated by stock and ETF performances through influencers leveraging their audience to sell NFT projects, are broken more often than not. Since I believe that markets are narratives, the more a “current NFT projects are scams” narrative hardens, the more likely is the current speculation cycle to end—the bubble to burst.
When, that of course is the question.
Disclaimer: I’m not saying that
every new NFT project is a scam at the moment,
the NFT speculation bubble burst is coming right now,
it will be permanent or
that I’ve lost all conviction in new NFT projects
—but more DYOR and caution is definitely advised in the coming weeks and months.
There is this anecdote about Joe Kennedy, JFK’s father, who got out of the stock market shortly before the Great Depression, because his shoeshine boy gave him investment tips. It is now referred to the Shoeshine Boy Indicator.
I think we’re at a stage of the NFT (collectibles) market, where scams, rug pulls and unethical influencer behavior are everywhere, with some estimates as high as 80% of all current NFT (PFP?) projects. This comes in addition to the usual “number go up” and “to the moon” shills and paper hand “accusations” for those taking profits, which have long been common in NFT collecting.
There definitely is an NFT speculation cycle going on right now, which evidently has to come to an end some time. Everybody and their mother are talking about NFTs and cryptocurrencies.
But right now, in my subjective perception, the promises of “get rich quick”, which attract average retail investors frustrated by stock and ETF performances through influencers leveraging their audience to sell NFT projects, are broken more often than not. Since I believe that markets are narratives, the more a “current NFT projects are scams” narrative hardens, the more likely is the current speculation cycle to end—the bubble to burst.
When, that of course is the question.
Disclaimer: I’m not saying that
every new NFT project is a scam at the moment,
the NFT speculation bubble burst is coming right now,
it will be permanent or
that I’ve lost all conviction in new NFT projects
—but more DYOR and caution is definitely advised in the coming weeks and months.
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