It's a tough time to predict what’s going to happen with cryptocurrency. Some people insist a global recession will crush the market. China’s in rough shape. The Israel-Hamas conflict could spark oil embargoes or World War 3. Ukraine-Russia, too. The European Union is already in a technical recession—two consecutive quarters of negative growth, possibly three once Q3 numbers come out. Doesn’t sound good for so-called “risk assets.” On the other hand, some people insist the worst is behin...

It's a tough time to predict what’s going to happen with cryptocurrency. Some people insist a global recession will crush the market. China’s in rough shape. The Israel-Hamas conflict could spark oil embargoes or World War 3. Ukraine-Russia, too. The European Union is already in a technical recession—two consecutive quarters of negative growth, possibly three once Q3 numbers come out. Doesn’t sound good for so-called “risk assets.” On the other hand, some people insist the worst is behin...

In last month’s post, I looked at the obstacles and uncertainties we face as we make our way through the second stage of the crypto market cycle. In this issue, I talk about predictions, price models, cycle theories, and what to think about conflicting visions of the future. We all agree: the legacy financial system can’t give enough people the lifestyle they want. Cryptocurrency can solve this problem. If that’s right, why do we spend so much time talking about predictions, models, and what ...

In last month’s post, I looked at the obstacles and uncertainties we face as we make our way through the second stage of the crypto market cycle. In this issue, I talk about predictions, price models, cycle theories, and what to think about conflicting visions of the future. We all agree: the legacy financial system can’t give enough people the lifestyle they want. Cryptocurrency can solve this problem. If that’s right, why do we spend so much time talking about predictions, models, and what ...

Bitcoin’s price started pumping, some altcoins caught a bid, US regulators said they’re reviewing spot bitcoin ETF applications, and next thing you know everybody's saying bitcoin’s in a bull market. Seems silly. If bitcoin’s price stays above $15,600, then it’s been in a bull market since November 2022. Where were the bulls a year ago? At that time, I said it’ll take a while—possibly years—before we know whether or not bitcoin’s in a bull market. Has enough time gone by to make a judgme...

Bitcoin’s price started pumping, some altcoins caught a bid, US regulators said they’re reviewing spot bitcoin ETF applications, and next thing you know everybody's saying bitcoin’s in a bull market. Seems silly. If bitcoin’s price stays above $15,600, then it’s been in a bull market since November 2022. Where were the bulls a year ago? At that time, I said it’ll take a while—possibly years—before we know whether or not bitcoin’s in a bull market. Has enough time gone by to make a judgme...

In last month’s issue, I talked about predictions, price models, cycle theories, and what to think about conflicting visions of the future. In this month’s issue, I look at our legacy financial system’s rules and how cryptocurrency breaks those rules. A few weeks ago, I heard a Fed spokesman define a “Goldilocks scenario” as full employment without much real wage growth. In other words, they want you to have a job that doesn’t make you better off or increase your purchasing power. If all goes...

In last month’s issue, I talked about predictions, price models, cycle theories, and what to think about conflicting visions of the future. In this month’s issue, I look at our legacy financial system’s rules and how cryptocurrency breaks those rules. A few weeks ago, I heard a Fed spokesman define a “Goldilocks scenario” as full employment without much real wage growth. In other words, they want you to have a job that doesn’t make you better off or increase your purchasing power. If all goes...

The Fed, the US’s central bank, will soon meet to decide what to do about interest rates. While nobody expects a rate hike, the Fed says people still have too many jobs and make too much money. It needs to “drain liquidity” and “weaken the labor market.” Higher for longer, as it says. All in pursuit of two goals: maximum employment and stable prices. A lot of people place a lot of faith in the Fed’s capacity to accomplish these goals. The crypto market obsesses over the Fed’s decisions. Finan...

The Fed, the US’s central bank, will soon meet to decide what to do about interest rates. While nobody expects a rate hike, the Fed says people still have too many jobs and make too much money. It needs to “drain liquidity” and “weaken the labor market.” Higher for longer, as it says. All in pursuit of two goals: maximum employment and stable prices. A lot of people place a lot of faith in the Fed’s capacity to accomplish these goals. The crypto market obsesses over the Fed’s decisions. Finan...

Yesterday, the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) dropped two more charges against Ripple for selling its XRP crypto the wrong way. The score stands at Ripple 3, SEC 0. Ripple isn’t the first crypto business to defeat the regulators. SEC Chairman Gary Gensler seems to lose, like, half of the crypto cases that go to trial. That’s an abysmal record for a US government agency, but I can’t object to Gary’s interpretation of US securities law. Legally speaking, he’s right. Under US law, s...

Yesterday, the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) dropped two more charges against Ripple for selling its XRP crypto the wrong way. The score stands at Ripple 3, SEC 0. Ripple isn’t the first crypto business to defeat the regulators. SEC Chairman Gary Gensler seems to lose, like, half of the crypto cases that go to trial. That’s an abysmal record for a US government agency, but I can’t object to Gary’s interpretation of US securities law. Legally speaking, he’s right. Under US law, s...

In last month’s issue, I looked at our legacy financial system’s rules and how cryptocurrency breaks those rules. This month, I talk about the fundamental reason we’re in this market and the difference between financial freedom and financial liberty. Last week, Binance kingpin CZ capitulated to US authorities. He and his exchange, Binance, will pay over $4 billion to the US government for facilitating money laundering and sanctions evasion. CZ may go to jail. Binance will continue operating u...

In last month’s issue, I looked at our legacy financial system’s rules and how cryptocurrency breaks those rules. This month, I talk about the fundamental reason we’re in this market and the difference between financial freedom and financial liberty. Last week, Binance kingpin CZ capitulated to US authorities. He and his exchange, Binance, will pay over $4 billion to the US government for facilitating money laundering and sanctions evasion. CZ may go to jail. Binance will continue operating u...

If you’ve spent even a little time in crypto, you've heard people talk about Bitcoin dominance and “TOTAL2/TOTAL3” trading charts that capture the altcoin market. You're probably familiar with terms like total value locked (TVL), fully diluted value (FDV), and market cap. Those metrics work fine for getting a sense of perspective, but they're not useful for picking altcoins. Read this article for some other ways to approach the speculative, volatile altcoin market.The data miss...

If you’ve spent even a little time in crypto, you've heard people talk about Bitcoin dominance and “TOTAL2/TOTAL3” trading charts that capture the altcoin market. You're probably familiar with terms like total value locked (TVL), fully diluted value (FDV), and market cap. Those metrics work fine for getting a sense of perspective, but they're not useful for picking altcoins. Read this article for some other ways to approach the speculative, volatile altcoin market.The data miss...

Shortly before Sam Bankman-Fried’s FTX trial started, Bloomberg reporter Zeke Faux published an anti-crypto book, Number Go Up. I haven't read it and don't plan to read it—not just because he didn't read any of my books, but also because I'm pretty sure I know everything he writes about. Zeke does good work, so I'm sure the book is great. Generally speaking, I agree with the premise. We need people who hold our feet to the fire! Mostly, it's just nice to see peop...

Shortly before Sam Bankman-Fried’s FTX trial started, Bloomberg reporter Zeke Faux published an anti-crypto book, Number Go Up. I haven't read it and don't plan to read it—not just because he didn't read any of my books, but also because I'm pretty sure I know everything he writes about. Zeke does good work, so I'm sure the book is great. Generally speaking, I agree with the premise. We need people who hold our feet to the fire! Mostly, it's just nice to see peop...

With bitcoin’s price breaking above $30,000, the cryptosphere seems locked in a “bull or bear market” conflict. Bitcoin’s price keeps going up but it feels like a bear market. Leading indicators and social media tell you the world's about to fall off a cliff but your friends think everything's OK. Bearish analysts turned into bulls but nothing substantively has changed except the price. YouTube tells you crypto’s about to explode but Ethereum’s still down against bitcoin and your al...

With bitcoin’s price breaking above $30,000, the cryptosphere seems locked in a “bull or bear market” conflict. Bitcoin’s price keeps going up but it feels like a bear market. Leading indicators and social media tell you the world's about to fall off a cliff but your friends think everything's OK. Bearish analysts turned into bulls but nothing substantively has changed except the price. YouTube tells you crypto’s about to explode but Ethereum’s still down against bitcoin and your al...

Last month, bitcoin's price smashed through “resistance” and started zooming. Now all people talk about is a new bull market. Bitcoin maximalists in my chat groups have moved from “freedom money / bitcoin fixes this” to star signs, price targets, and rocket emojis. They’re all cheering for the ETF, which is ironically the literal opposite of what bitcoin is supposed to stand for. https://twitter.com/Lukewearechange/status/1717663474484961688/ Twitter and YouTube are talking about taking ...

Last month, bitcoin's price smashed through “resistance” and started zooming. Now all people talk about is a new bull market. Bitcoin maximalists in my chat groups have moved from “freedom money / bitcoin fixes this” to star signs, price targets, and rocket emojis. They’re all cheering for the ETF, which is ironically the literal opposite of what bitcoin is supposed to stand for. https://twitter.com/Lukewearechange/status/1717663474484961688/ Twitter and YouTube are talking about taking ...

On November 3, 2023, Citizens Bank collapsed. Its closure marked the fifth US bank failure of 2023, the most bank failures in a single year since 2017. After a few years of calm, people in the US rediscovered a hard truth: Even the safest assets and most trustworthy institutions can fail. Risk abounds — sometimes, in the most unlikely places, like US treasuries or auto loans. In the spring, it was Credit Suisse. In the fall, it was China. Next year, maybe it’ll be CLOs or commercial real esta...

On November 3, 2023, Citizens Bank collapsed. Its closure marked the fifth US bank failure of 2023, the most bank failures in a single year since 2017. After a few years of calm, people in the US rediscovered a hard truth: Even the safest assets and most trustworthy institutions can fail. Risk abounds — sometimes, in the most unlikely places, like US treasuries or auto loans. In the spring, it was Credit Suisse. In the fall, it was China. Next year, maybe it’ll be CLOs or commercial real esta...