Did you hear the news? Big crypto investor Paradigm dropped crypto and web3 from its branding. https://twitter.com/WuBlockchain/status/1661902499857698818 Good for them. A lot of other crypto VCs failed before they could pivot. Julius Caesar called this thousands of years ago when he said “I came, I saw, I failured.”Not so badParadigm’s still into crypto, they’re just not saying it in public. Why would they leave? They did well with crypto. Many VCs did. For a few years, they held the keys to...

Did you hear the news? Big crypto investor Paradigm dropped crypto and web3 from its branding. https://twitter.com/WuBlockchain/status/1661902499857698818 Good for them. A lot of other crypto VCs failed before they could pivot. Julius Caesar called this thousands of years ago when he said “I came, I saw, I failured.”Not so badParadigm’s still into crypto, they’re just not saying it in public. Why would they leave? They did well with crypto. Many VCs did. For a few years, they held the keys to...

In last month’s issue, I talked about whether our faith and certainty are justified. In this month’s issue, I look at the obstacles and uncertainties we face as we make our way through the second stage of the crypto market cycle. On August 17, 2023, Bitcoin’s price completed its third-biggest drop of 2023 (so far), its biggest downswing since June, and its biggest liquidation event since FTX. Isn’t it crazy that this massive dump moved the price down only 10% in a day and only 20% since the m...

In last month’s issue, I talked about whether our faith and certainty are justified. In this month’s issue, I look at the obstacles and uncertainties we face as we make our way through the second stage of the crypto market cycle. On August 17, 2023, Bitcoin’s price completed its third-biggest drop of 2023 (so far), its biggest downswing since June, and its biggest liquidation event since FTX. Isn’t it crazy that this massive dump moved the price down only 10% in a day and only 20% since the m...

What if modern finance is just an exercise in risk management and our financial leaders don’t have nearly as much control as they — or we — think they do? Economic research does not have any experimental controls. It all works in theory, but once you go beyond very basic, broad principles, it always seems to fall apart without some government program or intervention. No monetary policy can account for all of the variables that make markets. Nobody can account for all the changes, disruptions,...

What if modern finance is just an exercise in risk management and our financial leaders don’t have nearly as much control as they — or we — think they do? Economic research does not have any experimental controls. It all works in theory, but once you go beyond very basic, broad principles, it always seems to fall apart without some government program or intervention. No monetary policy can account for all of the variables that make markets. Nobody can account for all the changes, disruptions,...

In last month’s issue, I looked at the way we think about crypto, macro, and today’s market as Wall Street starts to encroach on the space. In this month’s issue, I think about whether our faith and certainty are justified.Now that crypto prices have gone up long enough for people to think they will keep going up, experts say you have a green light to pour a ton of money into crypto. Up only! Halving cycle! Four-year cycle! MAC-D cross! Golden cross! Kris Kross!Did everybody suddenly forget a...

In last month’s issue, I looked at the way we think about crypto, macro, and today’s market as Wall Street starts to encroach on the space. In this month’s issue, I think about whether our faith and certainty are justified.Now that crypto prices have gone up long enough for people to think they will keep going up, experts say you have a green light to pour a ton of money into crypto. Up only! Halving cycle! Four-year cycle! MAC-D cross! Golden cross! Kris Kross!Did everybody suddenly forget a...

In last month’s post, Give to Powell What Belongs to Powell, I reflected on cryptocurrency’s relationship with the legacy financial system. In this month’s issue, I look at the shifting paradigm as we potentially end the mildest bear market (statistically) in crypto’s history. In the US, average wages rose about 8% over the past last year. Inflation fell to 5%. That means workers’ “real wages” beat inflation by 3%. On a year-over-year basis, real wages have gone up for the past four quarters....

In last month’s post, Give to Powell What Belongs to Powell, I reflected on cryptocurrency’s relationship with the legacy financial system. In this month’s issue, I look at the shifting paradigm as we potentially end the mildest bear market (statistically) in crypto’s history. In the US, average wages rose about 8% over the past last year. Inflation fell to 5%. That means workers’ “real wages” beat inflation by 3%. On a year-over-year basis, real wages have gone up for the past four quarters....

In last month’s post, I offered my commentary on the US’s reaction to cryptocurrency. In this post, I look at the way we think about crypto, macro, and today’s market as Wall Street starts to encroach on the space.I asked ChatGPT to critique last month’s issue. I got some good feedback. One comment stuck out: “While the essay acknowledges the accomplishments of the legacy financial system, it oversimplifies its complexities and challenges. The financial system is highly intricate and intercon...

In last month’s post, I offered my commentary on the US’s reaction to cryptocurrency. In this post, I look at the way we think about crypto, macro, and today’s market as Wall Street starts to encroach on the space.I asked ChatGPT to critique last month’s issue. I got some good feedback. One comment stuck out: “While the essay acknowledges the accomplishments of the legacy financial system, it oversimplifies its complexities and challenges. The financial system is highly intricate and intercon...

The crypto market’s up 60% this year but few seem to care—and for a good reason. The US seems destined to enter a recession at any moment. A too-big-to-fail bank, Credit Suisse, is on life support. China's economy can’t function without stimulus and government intervention. Most western economies continue to raise interest rates, squeezing capital from “risk-on” assets like cryptocurrency. Despite that, the crypto market is still behaving exactly as it has at every major market bottom. R...

The crypto market’s up 60% this year but few seem to care—and for a good reason. The US seems destined to enter a recession at any moment. A too-big-to-fail bank, Credit Suisse, is on life support. China's economy can’t function without stimulus and government intervention. Most western economies continue to raise interest rates, squeezing capital from “risk-on” assets like cryptocurrency. Despite that, the crypto market is still behaving exactly as it has at every major market bottom. R...

You’re making the best of a bear market that might be a bull market, depending on who you talk to. Maybe you’re thinking about selling or taking profits before the next crash? Maybe you’re HODLing in anticipation of the bull run? Are you making the mistake of not staking?A little something in returnWith staking, sometimes called bonding or locking-up tokens, you leave your altcoins with the protocol in return for rewards. It’s like passive income, paid in crypto. Theoretically, staking helps ...

You’re making the best of a bear market that might be a bull market, depending on who you talk to. Maybe you’re thinking about selling or taking profits before the next crash? Maybe you’re HODLing in anticipation of the bull run? Are you making the mistake of not staking?A little something in returnWith staking, sometimes called bonding or locking-up tokens, you leave your altcoins with the protocol in return for rewards. It’s like passive income, paid in crypto. Theoretically, staking helps ...

In February, IMF’s Executive Board published their Elements of Effective Policies for Crypto Assets. In this report, they acknowledge how quickly crypto technology is evolving, how poorly governments have adapted to its usage, and how significantly it will change modern finance and the way that money moves. They worry about what it will mean for their members. At a Congressional hearing earlier this month, Federal Reserve Chairman Jay Powell wondered why any cryptocurrency has a price higher ...

In February, IMF’s Executive Board published their Elements of Effective Policies for Crypto Assets. In this report, they acknowledge how quickly crypto technology is evolving, how poorly governments have adapted to its usage, and how significantly it will change modern finance and the way that money moves. They worry about what it will mean for their members. At a Congressional hearing earlier this month, Federal Reserve Chairman Jay Powell wondered why any cryptocurrency has a price higher ...

Crypto banker Silvergate Capital is going out of business. While Silvergate’s demise is a big deal, it changes nothing for cryptocurrency. Silvergate did not buy, sell, or own crypto (though it held some crypto for others). Yes, some crypto businesses will need to find another way to get the specialized banking services that Silvergate provided, but the cryptocurrencies themselves will be fine. https://mirror.xyz/0x9a6600c7B40801dda9A0Fa4E8DE7b1B99FE524a7/T9qGE72-Yq5nSDAUo2pcHos5iHrgH4wgmadBf...

Crypto banker Silvergate Capital is going out of business. While Silvergate’s demise is a big deal, it changes nothing for cryptocurrency. Silvergate did not buy, sell, or own crypto (though it held some crypto for others). Yes, some crypto businesses will need to find another way to get the specialized banking services that Silvergate provided, but the cryptocurrencies themselves will be fine. https://mirror.xyz/0x9a6600c7B40801dda9A0Fa4E8DE7b1B99FE524a7/T9qGE72-Yq5nSDAUo2pcHos5iHrgH4wgmadBf...

Bitcoin’s price is on a tear and the rest of the crypto market’s zooming, too. Altseason seems like it’s just around the corner. Nobody’s talking about bear markets anymore. https://mirror.xyz/0x9a6600c7B40801dda9A0Fa4E8DE7b1B99FE524a7/UXi2218x83vKvYqigVMfC9upC8EGUxRNEVCWwNMT620 Does that mean it’s time to stack some celebratory sats? Will your friends let you buy altcoins now? You missed it2022 was the last best chance to get into crypto. That chance is gone. If you followed my plan, you bou...

Bitcoin’s price is on a tear and the rest of the crypto market’s zooming, too. Altseason seems like it’s just around the corner. Nobody’s talking about bear markets anymore. https://mirror.xyz/0x9a6600c7B40801dda9A0Fa4E8DE7b1B99FE524a7/UXi2218x83vKvYqigVMfC9upC8EGUxRNEVCWwNMT620 Does that mean it’s time to stack some celebratory sats? Will your friends let you buy altcoins now? You missed it2022 was the last best chance to get into crypto. That chance is gone. If you followed my plan, you bou...

In last month’s post, I looked at the shifting paradigm as we potentially end the mildest bear market (statistically) in crypto’s history. In this month’s issue, I offer my commentary on the US’s reaction to cryptocurrency. Lest ye think otherwise, I am a fan of US Federal Reserve Chairman Jay Powell. He does the best he can with the cards he’s dealt and the tools he has at his disposal. No human creation can serve every need of every person all the time. The fact that the legacy financial sy...

In last month’s post, I looked at the shifting paradigm as we potentially end the mildest bear market (statistically) in crypto’s history. In this month’s issue, I offer my commentary on the US’s reaction to cryptocurrency. Lest ye think otherwise, I am a fan of US Federal Reserve Chairman Jay Powell. He does the best he can with the cards he’s dealt and the tools he has at his disposal. No human creation can serve every need of every person all the time. The fact that the legacy financial sy...