Subscribe to Mark Helfman
Mark HelfmanSEC Retreats From Ripple But Gensler’s Right About Crypto
Yesterday, the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) dropped two more charges against Ripple for selling its XRP crypto the wrong way. The score stands at Ripple 3, SEC 0. Ripple isn’t the first crypto business to defeat the regulators. SEC Chairman Gary Gensler seems to lose, like, half of the crypto cases that go to trial. That’s an abysmal record for a US government agency, but I can’t object to Gary’s interpretation of US securities law. Legally speaking, he’s right. Under US law, s...
Mark HelfmanTwo Truths and a Lie About Altcoins
You’re hearing a lot about altcoins from bitmojis, analysts, and commentators. None of them are experts, but they’ve picked up some insights along the way. Since the market’s going up, they seem legit. Read on for two truths you might not realize and one lie you might believe.Truth #1—altcoins are $200 billion worth of crapAltcoins are a $400 billion asset class. At least $200 billion worth of that market cap consists of altcoins that suck, do nothing, and will bleed value forever. Some of th...
Mark HelfmanLike a Cockroach, Bitcoin Will Survive a Nuclear War
Since its creation, people have searched for a “use case” for Bitcoin. It seems the world has no use for money that you can send to anybody, anywhere, anytime, in any amount, without restriction, without revealing your sensitive personal information, without putting your property in another person’s control, with certainty that your transaction will go through and confirmation that every payment you receive is authentic and valid. Nor do they care about having a way to conduct finance that wo...
<100 subscribers
Subscribe to Mark Helfman
<100 subscribers
Mark HelfmanSEC Retreats From Ripple But Gensler’s Right About Crypto
Yesterday, the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) dropped two more charges against Ripple for selling its XRP crypto the wrong way. The score stands at Ripple 3, SEC 0. Ripple isn’t the first crypto business to defeat the regulators. SEC Chairman Gary Gensler seems to lose, like, half of the crypto cases that go to trial. That’s an abysmal record for a US government agency, but I can’t object to Gary’s interpretation of US securities law. Legally speaking, he’s right. Under US law, s...
Mark HelfmanTwo Truths and a Lie About Altcoins
You’re hearing a lot about altcoins from bitmojis, analysts, and commentators. None of them are experts, but they’ve picked up some insights along the way. Since the market’s going up, they seem legit. Read on for two truths you might not realize and one lie you might believe.Truth #1—altcoins are $200 billion worth of crapAltcoins are a $400 billion asset class. At least $200 billion worth of that market cap consists of altcoins that suck, do nothing, and will bleed value forever. Some of th...
Mark HelfmanLike a Cockroach, Bitcoin Will Survive a Nuclear War
Since its creation, people have searched for a “use case” for Bitcoin. It seems the world has no use for money that you can send to anybody, anywhere, anytime, in any amount, without restriction, without revealing your sensitive personal information, without putting your property in another person’s control, with certainty that your transaction will go through and confirmation that every payment you receive is authentic and valid. Nor do they care about having a way to conduct finance that wo...
Share Dialog
Share Dialog
It's a tough time to predict what’s going to happen with cryptocurrency.
Some people insist a global recession will crush the market.
China’s in rough shape. The Israel-Hamas conflict could spark oil embargoes or World War 3. Ukraine-Russia, too.
The European Union is already in a technical recession—two consecutive quarters of negative growth, possibly three once Q3 numbers come out. Doesn’t sound good for so-called “risk assets.”
On the other hand, some people insist the worst is behind us and cryptocurrency’s about to start a massive bull run.
If history is our guide, crypto prices should do something comparable to 2016—sideways with big upswings and downswings for weeks or months before a big ZOOM and a big crash, maybe with another ETH hack or the collapse of some big exchange.
Of course, history is not always our guide. You can also look at metrics, data, and trends.
In my updates for premium subscribers of my newsletter, Crypto is Easy, I’ve pointed out coincidental similarities with early 2016 on multiple dimensions.
Macro circumstances. On-chain movements of Bitcoins. Uncanny similarities in some trading indicators. Mirror-image changes in key metrics like Puell Multiple and MVRV Z-Score. Various measures of profit and loss. Long-term and short-term investor behavior. Changes in the composition of HODLers.
A few examples among many:
Crazy.
Even the price action matches 2016’s hugging of the long-term “Fib retracement” of .236, a key psychological level where prices tend to go up and down within a trend.
Same fib, as you see as the black lines on this chart:
General global economic trends rhyme with what you saw in early 2016:
China had started to recover after an economic crisis. The US dollar went up as the US economy and stock market digested rate hikes and a surge in oil prices. Europe struggled.
At that time, a Pew research report showed 75% of Americans rated the US economy as fair or poor. The International Monetary Fund’s 2016 outlook predicted “subdued demand,” “diminished prospects,” and “tilted to the downside.” Some large countries went into recession.
Coincidences?
Yes.
Maybe that’s ok.
Sometimes, when you overlap a bunch of coincidences from different angles that look at different behaviors across different dimensions as they change over time, and they all match up, you can get a much clearer picture of the market than you’d get from cherry-picking a key chart, projection, or trend.
Crypto did ok in 2016. Up 126% from start to finish. Up 500% from the 2015 bottom to December 31, 2016.
All we need now is for a sudden, short-lived burst in prices, a major protocol to collapse, and a major exchange to get hacked. That would match perfectly the ETH DAO debacle and the Bitfinex hack of 2016.
Then we can finally confirm for everybody that the bull market started last year.
Fortunately, you have a good allocation to the market with cash in reserve. Now’s a good time to think about your larger portfolio strategy. You can see mine.
https://cryptoiseasy.beehiiv.com/p/portfolio-strategy
You may want to use this time to reflect on what you have, what you want to have, and what you want to get out of this market.
What goals do you have for yourself and your finances? How does cryptocurrency fit into those goals?
I'm happy to consult. Let’s connect on Superpeer or Tealfeed!
Or, subscribe to the Crypto is Easy newsletter, where I give you more perspective, insights, and strategies that can’t fit within this post.
It's a tough time to predict what’s going to happen with cryptocurrency.
Some people insist a global recession will crush the market.
China’s in rough shape. The Israel-Hamas conflict could spark oil embargoes or World War 3. Ukraine-Russia, too.
The European Union is already in a technical recession—two consecutive quarters of negative growth, possibly three once Q3 numbers come out. Doesn’t sound good for so-called “risk assets.”
On the other hand, some people insist the worst is behind us and cryptocurrency’s about to start a massive bull run.
If history is our guide, crypto prices should do something comparable to 2016—sideways with big upswings and downswings for weeks or months before a big ZOOM and a big crash, maybe with another ETH hack or the collapse of some big exchange.
Of course, history is not always our guide. You can also look at metrics, data, and trends.
In my updates for premium subscribers of my newsletter, Crypto is Easy, I’ve pointed out coincidental similarities with early 2016 on multiple dimensions.
Macro circumstances. On-chain movements of Bitcoins. Uncanny similarities in some trading indicators. Mirror-image changes in key metrics like Puell Multiple and MVRV Z-Score. Various measures of profit and loss. Long-term and short-term investor behavior. Changes in the composition of HODLers.
A few examples among many:
Crazy.
Even the price action matches 2016’s hugging of the long-term “Fib retracement” of .236, a key psychological level where prices tend to go up and down within a trend.
Same fib, as you see as the black lines on this chart:
General global economic trends rhyme with what you saw in early 2016:
China had started to recover after an economic crisis. The US dollar went up as the US economy and stock market digested rate hikes and a surge in oil prices. Europe struggled.
At that time, a Pew research report showed 75% of Americans rated the US economy as fair or poor. The International Monetary Fund’s 2016 outlook predicted “subdued demand,” “diminished prospects,” and “tilted to the downside.” Some large countries went into recession.
Coincidences?
Yes.
Maybe that’s ok.
Sometimes, when you overlap a bunch of coincidences from different angles that look at different behaviors across different dimensions as they change over time, and they all match up, you can get a much clearer picture of the market than you’d get from cherry-picking a key chart, projection, or trend.
Crypto did ok in 2016. Up 126% from start to finish. Up 500% from the 2015 bottom to December 31, 2016.
All we need now is for a sudden, short-lived burst in prices, a major protocol to collapse, and a major exchange to get hacked. That would match perfectly the ETH DAO debacle and the Bitfinex hack of 2016.
Then we can finally confirm for everybody that the bull market started last year.
Fortunately, you have a good allocation to the market with cash in reserve. Now’s a good time to think about your larger portfolio strategy. You can see mine.
https://cryptoiseasy.beehiiv.com/p/portfolio-strategy
You may want to use this time to reflect on what you have, what you want to have, and what you want to get out of this market.
What goals do you have for yourself and your finances? How does cryptocurrency fit into those goals?
I'm happy to consult. Let’s connect on Superpeer or Tealfeed!
Or, subscribe to the Crypto is Easy newsletter, where I give you more perspective, insights, and strategies that can’t fit within this post.
No comments yet