The Hyperliquid Fairy-Tale Was One-Off

Hyperliquid’s 70 % market share was a perfect storm: CEX panic, a purpose-built chain, and a VC-free airdrop that minted millionaires overnight.

Replicating that confluence is impossible; the window closed the moment the narrative went mainstream.

Late-comers are now fighting for scraps, not stealing share from Binance.

Aster’s 40× Candle Was Exchange Theatre

CZ’s tweet lit the fuse, but the powder was Binance listing juice and market-maker fireworks.

Open-interest, TVL stickiness and revenue remain unproven; the fee-and-buy-back flywheel is still a slide-deck promise.

With VC unlocks, KOL rounds and potential BNB-holder dumps queued, calling Aster “the next HL” is premature euphoria.

Subsidy-Driven Volume Is Sugar Data

New entrants like Lighter chase KPIs with zero fees and promised drops.

When the farming stops, the bots leave; only genuine trading fees can pay for permanent liquidity.

A model that balances MM rebates, trader profits and governance holders needs a full cycle to prove it works—not a three-week APY rave.

Is Eating Generic L1s’ Lunch

Hyperliquid’s success legitimised “one chain, one use-case”, siphoning attention and TVL from general-purpose L1s/L2s.

If the coming wave of trading-app-chains merely cannibalises DEX volume instead of clawing users from CEXs, composability shrinks and DeFi’s original promise—open, modular finance—gets reduced to a turf war between CEX-backed franchises.

Trade, but Don’t Drink the Kool-Aid

Innovation is welcome; subsidised numbers are not.

Measure sustainability: stickiness of OI, share of fee income, length of unlock cliffs.

Until those metrics survive a bear quarter, the Perp DEX renaissance is still the emperor’s new clothes—tailor-made for early insiders, sewn with retail FOMO.

The Hyperliquid Fairy-Tale Was One-Off

Hyperliquid’s 70 % market share was a perfect storm: CEX panic, a purpose-built chain, and a VC-free airdrop that minted millionaires overnight.

Replicating that confluence is impossible; the window closed the moment the narrative went mainstream.

Late-comers are now fighting for scraps, not stealing share from Binance.

Aster’s 40× Candle Was Exchange Theatre

CZ’s tweet lit the fuse, but the powder was Binance listing juice and market-maker fireworks.

Open-interest, TVL stickiness and revenue remain unproven; the fee-and-buy-back flywheel is still a slide-deck promise.

With VC unlocks, KOL rounds and potential BNB-holder dumps queued, calling Aster “the next HL” is premature euphoria.

Subsidy-Driven Volume Is Sugar Data

New entrants like Lighter chase KPIs with zero fees and promised drops.

When the farming stops, the bots leave; only genuine trading fees can pay for permanent liquidity.

A model that balances MM rebates, trader profits and governance holders needs a full cycle to prove it works—not a three-week APY rave.

Is Eating Generic L1s’ Lunch

Hyperliquid’s success legitimised “one chain, one use-case”, siphoning attention and TVL from general-purpose L1s/L2s.

If the coming wave of trading-app-chains merely cannibalises DEX volume instead of clawing users from CEXs, composability shrinks and DeFi’s original promise—open, modular finance—gets reduced to a turf war between CEX-backed franchises.

Trade, but Don’t Drink the Kool-Aid

Innovation is welcome; subsidised numbers are not.

Measure sustainability: stickiness of OI, share of fee income, length of unlock cliffs.

Until those metrics survive a bear quarter, the Perp DEX renaissance is still the emperor’s new clothes—tailor-made for early insiders, sewn with retail FOMO.