Recalling the "Dawn at the Storm’s End"
Back on April 8, amid tariff fears and market gloom, I published an article titled Dawn at the Storm’s End. At that time, the S&P had plunged 20%, economists predicted a recession, and panic prevailed. I argued that this self-inflicted sell-off would ultimately present a buying opportunity driven by AI, predicting that six months later, people would realize the panic was overblown compared to AI’s progress.

That’s exactly what happened. Markets recovered, risk assets rallied, and the AI narrative accelerated.

The Silent IPO and Its Aftermath
By November, Bitcoin’s consolidation and underperformance relative to stocks led me to write Bitcoin’s Silent IPO. I explained that Bitcoin’s stagnant phase was not a sign of weakness but a necessary distribution period. Long-term holders were finally unlocking liquidity, methodically selling into strong institutional demand from ETFs and corporate buyers—much like a post-IPO lockup expiration. Uncomfortable but healthy in the long run.

That consolidation has now broken. The silent IPO dividend triggered a deeper correction, and stocks—especially retail-heavy AI speculative names—have begun to pull back. Bitcoin is slightly down for the year. The cognitive dissonance that frustrated the crypto community has turned into genuine bearishness. “Liberty Day” optimism feels like a distant memory. Talk of the four-year cycle ending grows louder, and “this time is different” believers are wavering.

The Crypto Fear & Greed Index has retreated to 15, matching the Liberty Day lows. Hope seems lost. That’s precisely why it’s time for Dawn at the Storm’s End: Part Two.

Bitcoin and AI: The Exponential Connection
The core idea remains the same as during Liberty Day: all assets are being driven by AI progress, and Bitcoin is the ultimate expression of the AI story.

Both Bitcoin (born from the 2008 whitepaper) and modern AI (sparked by the 2009 Raina-Madhavan-Ng paper that demonstrated GPU-accelerated deep learning) are exponential innovations. One could not have happened without the other.

Exponential innovation reduces the need for office work—or any work. It exacerbates wealth inequality, forcing governments to run fiscal deficits and inflate financial assets as a form of universal basic income (UBI). Today’s UBI isn’t a government check but universal beta income: your wealth grows because the system has no other choice.

For those without assets, transfer payments serve as another form of UBI. This creates the well-known K-shaped economy and fuels broad anger as cost-of-living declines—driven by wage pressure from hiring reductions and UBI-driven inflation. Bitcoin benefits from this spiral. It is correlated with risk assets until AI begins to consume capitalism and public markets.

Why Bitcoin Trading Like a Risk Asset Is Bullish
A persistent misconception is that Bitcoin should trade independently of traditional risk assets—that it’s digital gold, a hedge against the system. Thus, if Bitcoin falls with stocks, something must be broken.

This is wrong. Bitcoin is a risk asset. Yes, it’s a store of value. Yes, it’s decentralized. But in terms of market psychology and capital flows, it behaves like a high-beta risk asset. ETF investors allocate Bitcoin alongside stocks; when they de-risk, Bitcoin is sold. Retail investors use the same capital for crypto and stocks. Even Bitcoin maximalists accumulate more aggressively when the economy is strong and cash flows are abundant.

So when Nasdaq falls, Bitcoin falls. When AI stocks are hit, Bitcoin is hit. This isn’t a bug—it’s a feature. It’s Bitcoin behaving as expected given its holder base.

This is bullish because if Bitcoin is tied to risk assets, its outlook is tied to theirs. To understand Bitcoin’s future, we must understand equities.

The 2026 Landscape: Fiscal, Monetary, and AI Convergence
Markets climb a wall of worry. Currently, that wall is built of AI bubble fears, recession concerns, and crypto pessimism. But the 2026 setup is remarkable.

Fiscal support continues. The infrastructure bill, CHIPS Act, and Inflation Reduction Act are not just talk—they are trillions in spending driving real economic activity and deficits.
The Fed has room to ease. Inflation is under control. Wages, home prices, and oil have been under pressure this year.
AI is nearing breakthroughs. We are approaching tangible, real-world advances that will capture mainstream attention:

• AI drug discovery: The first AI-discovered drugs are nearing clinical trials. Positive news could massively impact healthcare and productivity.

• Autonomous vehicles: We are at an inflection point. Waymo is expanding; Tesla’s FSD is improving; Chinese companies are deploying robotaxis at scale.

• AI agents & productivity: Agents capable of complex tasks will emerge across industries, boosting efficiency and profit margins.

Manufacturing is expanding. AI infrastructure is fueling a U.S. manufacturing renaissance. I expect PMI to rise in 2026—historically a strong signal for crypto, especially altcoins.

Bears will cry, “AI bubble!” Perhaps. But bubbles often last longer and go further than expected. The internet bubble peaked in March 2000, not when valuations first seemed stretched in 1997. If we are in an AI bubble, it is still in its early to middle stages.

Bubbles typically burst due to a catalyst—often Fed tightening into economic weakness. But the Fed is done tightening. They may ease in 2026, not tighten. The classic catalyst is absent.

Bitcoin’s 2026 Catalysts
If risk assets perform well in 2026, Bitcoin as a high-beta risk asset should significantly outperform. But Bitcoin also has unique catalysts:

• The Clarity Act: Expected in late 2025 or early 2026, this legislation will provide regulatory clarity, resolve jurisdictional ambiguities, and unlock institutional capital. The ETF flows we’ve seen so far will look trivial in comparison.

• Tokenization is booming: JPMorgan, BlackRock, Franklin Templeton, and others are building tokenization platforms for Treasuries, real estate, and equities. This validates blockchain infrastructure and positions Bitcoin as a neutral settlement asset—the TCP/IP of digital finance.

• Stablecoin acceleration: This is the most underappreciated bullish factor. Stablecoins are exploding in developing nations as dollar payment channels. Tether and USDC are becoming integral to global commerce.

Stablecoins and Bitcoin are not competitors—they are a two-part system. Stablecoins serve as the medium of exchange for the digital economy; Bitcoin is the store of value. As more activity and capital enter the digital economy, Bitcoin’share grows. Stablecoins onboard millions of new users who eventually seek a long-term store of value for their non-transactional capital. Bitcoin is the natural choice.

History Repeats
Decades of market experience show that initial lows are often retested. We saw this in April—markets bottomed, retested the lows, then marched higher. This is a normal, healthy process that builds support and shakes out weak hands.

I expect something similar for Bitcoin. We may have already bottomed, but a retest in the coming weeks is likely. Final capitulation could trigger one last sell-off.

If a retest occurs, it would be the year’s best opportunity. Smart money that missed the first bottom gets a second chance. I won’t wait for the retest—I believe now is the time to buy fear, while greed is low.

The Dawn Is Here
Bitcoin is down year-to-date. The silent IPO distribution is progressing. Ownership is more distributed than ever. Retail is bearish and on the sidelines. ETF buyers are accumulating patiently. Bitcoin maximalists continue stacking sats. Developing nations are steadily adopting Bitcoin as financial infrastructure.

Meanwhile, the 2026 setup looks bright: fiscal support continues, monetary policy is a tailwind, AI breakthroughs will drive speculation and real earnings growth, manufacturing is expanding, regulatory clarity is coming, tokenization is scaling, and stablecoins are accelerating network effects.

Bitcoin trades like a risk asset. Risk assets are expected to perform well in 2026. Therefore, Bitcoin is expected to perform well in 2026.

I often think back to Liberty Day. The S&P was down 20%, economists forecast recession, and people panicked. I said then that in six months, we’d look back and see the panic was unfounded. I was right.

I feel the same about Bitcoin now. Yes, this correction is painful. Yes, sentiment is terrible. The Fear & Greed Index is at 15, matching Liberty Day lows. But corrections in bull markets always feel like the end of the world. They always seem different. They always make people think the rally is over.

And they always offer a buying opportunity for those who can overcome fear.

In my trading career, I’ve lived through enough crises—the 1994 Mexico crisis, 1998 Brazil, the Global Financial Crisis, COVID, Liberty Day—to know that while these moments are unsettling, they are never as bad as they seem. One truth is clear: if you can overcome fear, these moments often hold the best opportunities.

Bitcoin hasn’t broken. Digital assets aren’t dying. What’s happening is exactly what should happen: a maturing risk asset, still recovering from the 2022 winter, is correcting alongside other risk assets amid uncertainty and positioning shifts. Unlike the April sell-off, this correction is narrower—focused on growth stocks and crypto rather than broad market panic. That’s healthier. It means markets are differentiating. It also means that when the recovery comes, it could be more powerful and targeted.

For those who see the big picture, now is a time to accumulate—not recklessly, not with leverage, not with money you can’t afford to lose—but thoughtfully, carefully, based on fundamentals rather than emotion, and with conviction.

AI will drive outsized investment returns, and market volatility will increase. There will be more worrying moments ahead as governments struggle to manage this disruptive force. Doubts will persist; sensational headlines about crashes and bear markets will abound. Ignore them. Focus on the fundamentals. AI is the most important, powerful innovation of our time, and it will create a better future in the years ahead.

By the time everyone realizes it, it will be too late to get in at good prices. Now is the time for crypto, with the Fear & Greed Index at 15, the crowd panic-selling, and the tunnel still dark.

Six months from now, just like after Liberty Day, the narrative around Bitcoin will be completely different. We’ll look back at these prices and the sentiment today and wonder why we ever doubted.

Author: Jordi Visser
The author is a professional investor with over 30 years of experience in Wall Street traditional finance and macroeconomics. The views expressed in this article are solely his own and should not be considered as investment advice or recommendations.

Recalling the "Dawn at the Storm’s End"
Back on April 8, amid tariff fears and market gloom, I published an article titled Dawn at the Storm’s End. At that time, the S&P had plunged 20%, economists predicted a recession, and panic prevailed. I argued that this self-inflicted sell-off would ultimately present a buying opportunity driven by AI, predicting that six months later, people would realize the panic was overblown compared to AI’s progress.

That’s exactly what happened. Markets recovered, risk assets rallied, and the AI narrative accelerated.

The Silent IPO and Its Aftermath
By November, Bitcoin’s consolidation and underperformance relative to stocks led me to write Bitcoin’s Silent IPO. I explained that Bitcoin’s stagnant phase was not a sign of weakness but a necessary distribution period. Long-term holders were finally unlocking liquidity, methodically selling into strong institutional demand from ETFs and corporate buyers—much like a post-IPO lockup expiration. Uncomfortable but healthy in the long run.

That consolidation has now broken. The silent IPO dividend triggered a deeper correction, and stocks—especially retail-heavy AI speculative names—have begun to pull back. Bitcoin is slightly down for the year. The cognitive dissonance that frustrated the crypto community has turned into genuine bearishness. “Liberty Day” optimism feels like a distant memory. Talk of the four-year cycle ending grows louder, and “this time is different” believers are wavering.

The Crypto Fear & Greed Index has retreated to 15, matching the Liberty Day lows. Hope seems lost. That’s precisely why it’s time for Dawn at the Storm’s End: Part Two.

Bitcoin and AI: The Exponential Connection
The core idea remains the same as during Liberty Day: all assets are being driven by AI progress, and Bitcoin is the ultimate expression of the AI story.

Both Bitcoin (born from the 2008 whitepaper) and modern AI (sparked by the 2009 Raina-Madhavan-Ng paper that demonstrated GPU-accelerated deep learning) are exponential innovations. One could not have happened without the other.

Exponential innovation reduces the need for office work—or any work. It exacerbates wealth inequality, forcing governments to run fiscal deficits and inflate financial assets as a form of universal basic income (UBI). Today’s UBI isn’t a government check but universal beta income: your wealth grows because the system has no other choice.

For those without assets, transfer payments serve as another form of UBI. This creates the well-known K-shaped economy and fuels broad anger as cost-of-living declines—driven by wage pressure from hiring reductions and UBI-driven inflation. Bitcoin benefits from this spiral. It is correlated with risk assets until AI begins to consume capitalism and public markets.

Why Bitcoin Trading Like a Risk Asset Is Bullish
A persistent misconception is that Bitcoin should trade independently of traditional risk assets—that it’s digital gold, a hedge against the system. Thus, if Bitcoin falls with stocks, something must be broken.

This is wrong. Bitcoin is a risk asset. Yes, it’s a store of value. Yes, it’s decentralized. But in terms of market psychology and capital flows, it behaves like a high-beta risk asset. ETF investors allocate Bitcoin alongside stocks; when they de-risk, Bitcoin is sold. Retail investors use the same capital for crypto and stocks. Even Bitcoin maximalists accumulate more aggressively when the economy is strong and cash flows are abundant.

So when Nasdaq falls, Bitcoin falls. When AI stocks are hit, Bitcoin is hit. This isn’t a bug—it’s a feature. It’s Bitcoin behaving as expected given its holder base.

This is bullish because if Bitcoin is tied to risk assets, its outlook is tied to theirs. To understand Bitcoin’s future, we must understand equities.

The 2026 Landscape: Fiscal, Monetary, and AI Convergence
Markets climb a wall of worry. Currently, that wall is built of AI bubble fears, recession concerns, and crypto pessimism. But the 2026 setup is remarkable.

Fiscal support continues. The infrastructure bill, CHIPS Act, and Inflation Reduction Act are not just talk—they are trillions in spending driving real economic activity and deficits.
The Fed has room to ease. Inflation is under control. Wages, home prices, and oil have been under pressure this year.
AI is nearing breakthroughs. We are approaching tangible, real-world advances that will capture mainstream attention:

• AI drug discovery: The first AI-discovered drugs are nearing clinical trials. Positive news could massively impact healthcare and productivity.

• Autonomous vehicles: We are at an inflection point. Waymo is expanding; Tesla’s FSD is improving; Chinese companies are deploying robotaxis at scale.

• AI agents & productivity: Agents capable of complex tasks will emerge across industries, boosting efficiency and profit margins.

Manufacturing is expanding. AI infrastructure is fueling a U.S. manufacturing renaissance. I expect PMI to rise in 2026—historically a strong signal for crypto, especially altcoins.

Bears will cry, “AI bubble!” Perhaps. But bubbles often last longer and go further than expected. The internet bubble peaked in March 2000, not when valuations first seemed stretched in 1997. If we are in an AI bubble, it is still in its early to middle stages.

Bubbles typically burst due to a catalyst—often Fed tightening into economic weakness. But the Fed is done tightening. They may ease in 2026, not tighten. The classic catalyst is absent.

Bitcoin’s 2026 Catalysts
If risk assets perform well in 2026, Bitcoin as a high-beta risk asset should significantly outperform. But Bitcoin also has unique catalysts:

• The Clarity Act: Expected in late 2025 or early 2026, this legislation will provide regulatory clarity, resolve jurisdictional ambiguities, and unlock institutional capital. The ETF flows we’ve seen so far will look trivial in comparison.

• Tokenization is booming: JPMorgan, BlackRock, Franklin Templeton, and others are building tokenization platforms for Treasuries, real estate, and equities. This validates blockchain infrastructure and positions Bitcoin as a neutral settlement asset—the TCP/IP of digital finance.

• Stablecoin acceleration: This is the most underappreciated bullish factor. Stablecoins are exploding in developing nations as dollar payment channels. Tether and USDC are becoming integral to global commerce.

Stablecoins and Bitcoin are not competitors—they are a two-part system. Stablecoins serve as the medium of exchange for the digital economy; Bitcoin is the store of value. As more activity and capital enter the digital economy, Bitcoin’share grows. Stablecoins onboard millions of new users who eventually seek a long-term store of value for their non-transactional capital. Bitcoin is the natural choice.

History Repeats
Decades of market experience show that initial lows are often retested. We saw this in April—markets bottomed, retested the lows, then marched higher. This is a normal, healthy process that builds support and shakes out weak hands.

I expect something similar for Bitcoin. We may have already bottomed, but a retest in the coming weeks is likely. Final capitulation could trigger one last sell-off.

If a retest occurs, it would be the year’s best opportunity. Smart money that missed the first bottom gets a second chance. I won’t wait for the retest—I believe now is the time to buy fear, while greed is low.

The Dawn Is Here
Bitcoin is down year-to-date. The silent IPO distribution is progressing. Ownership is more distributed than ever. Retail is bearish and on the sidelines. ETF buyers are accumulating patiently. Bitcoin maximalists continue stacking sats. Developing nations are steadily adopting Bitcoin as financial infrastructure.

Meanwhile, the 2026 setup looks bright: fiscal support continues, monetary policy is a tailwind, AI breakthroughs will drive speculation and real earnings growth, manufacturing is expanding, regulatory clarity is coming, tokenization is scaling, and stablecoins are accelerating network effects.

Bitcoin trades like a risk asset. Risk assets are expected to perform well in 2026. Therefore, Bitcoin is expected to perform well in 2026.

I often think back to Liberty Day. The S&P was down 20%, economists forecast recession, and people panicked. I said then that in six months, we’d look back and see the panic was unfounded. I was right.

I feel the same about Bitcoin now. Yes, this correction is painful. Yes, sentiment is terrible. The Fear & Greed Index is at 15, matching Liberty Day lows. But corrections in bull markets always feel like the end of the world. They always seem different. They always make people think the rally is over.

And they always offer a buying opportunity for those who can overcome fear.

In my trading career, I’ve lived through enough crises—the 1994 Mexico crisis, 1998 Brazil, the Global Financial Crisis, COVID, Liberty Day—to know that while these moments are unsettling, they are never as bad as they seem. One truth is clear: if you can overcome fear, these moments often hold the best opportunities.

Bitcoin hasn’t broken. Digital assets aren’t dying. What’s happening is exactly what should happen: a maturing risk asset, still recovering from the 2022 winter, is correcting alongside other risk assets amid uncertainty and positioning shifts. Unlike the April sell-off, this correction is narrower—focused on growth stocks and crypto rather than broad market panic. That’s healthier. It means markets are differentiating. It also means that when the recovery comes, it could be more powerful and targeted.

For those who see the big picture, now is a time to accumulate—not recklessly, not with leverage, not with money you can’t afford to lose—but thoughtfully, carefully, based on fundamentals rather than emotion, and with conviction.

AI will drive outsized investment returns, and market volatility will increase. There will be more worrying moments ahead as governments struggle to manage this disruptive force. Doubts will persist; sensational headlines about crashes and bear markets will abound. Ignore them. Focus on the fundamentals. AI is the most important, powerful innovation of our time, and it will create a better future in the years ahead.

By the time everyone realizes it, it will be too late to get in at good prices. Now is the time for crypto, with the Fear & Greed Index at 15, the crowd panic-selling, and the tunnel still dark.

Six months from now, just like after Liberty Day, the narrative around Bitcoin will be completely different. We’ll look back at these prices and the sentiment today and wonder why we ever doubted.

Author: Jordi Visser
The author is a professional investor with over 30 years of experience in Wall Street traditional finance and macroeconomics. The views expressed in this article are solely his own and should not be considered as investment advice or recommendations.