1. The License Dash—Lawyers First to the Trough
Compliance is the ticket to play, and right now everyone is queuing in Hong Kong.
The regulator’s checklist is long, dense and shifting—too much for most firms to decode alone.
Enter the law firms. They draft applications, translate rules, lobby behind closed doors and bill by the hour.
Long before a single token is minted, the lawyers have already locked in their win.

2. Building the Stack—Web3 Infrastructure Shops Feast Next
Compliance and tech can run in parallel. Smart issuers start building while their paperwork is still under review; waiting for the green light means missing the window.
A functioning stablecoin needs a small army of services: KYB/KYT, AML screening, treasury management, token-issuance APIs, liquidity venues, on-chain security audits, fiat ramps, address whitelisting, settlement layers—the list is long.
Most TradFi companies have neither the talent nor the tooling, so they outsource to crypto-native dev shops.
Those Web3 service providers are signing multi-year retainers and watching revenue hit the books months before any coins circulate.

3. The Channel Wars—Exchanges, E-Commerce Giants and Trade Houses
License? Check. Tech? Check. Now comes distribution.
We are still early; most firms are stuck in stages one or two, but the first real battle—call it the “Hundred-Coins War”—is already being negotiated in back rooms.
For a stablecoin, liquidity is oxygen. Issuers must anchor their coins in real business flows: remittance corridors, on-ramp/off-ramp pairs, merchant checkouts, OTC desks.
Look at Circle: USDC exploded because Coinbase provided depth of market and brand credibility.
Hong Kong’s contenders will repeat the playbook—ink exclusive deals with exchanges, tie-ups with e-commerce platforms, integrations into cross-border trade networks.
When the fight starts, the tollbooths—exchanges, payment processors, large merchants—collect rent from every issuer desperate for volume.

4. The Last Coin Standing—Issuer Profit Mode
History rhymes: ride-hailing, bike-sharing, food delivery—all began with subsidy wars, then consolidation, then price hikes.
Stablecoins will follow the same arc. One coin—maybe two—will become the de facto HKD or regional CNY proxy. Network effects will snowball; smaller caps will be starved of liquidity and quietly delist.
Once dominance is locked in, the surviving issuer flips from growth-at-all-costs to yield optimization: higher spreads on mint/redeem, float income on reserves, premium API access, B2B SaaS fees.
With billions in backing assets, even a 50-basis-point spread becomes serious money.
And just like Uber or Meituan after the truce, profitability is both sudden and enormous.

Side Hustles Along the Way
• Retail traders: When new issuers pay for liquidity, arbitrage airdrops, zero-fee ramps and deposit-bonus campaigns appear—free money for alert users.
• Data vendors & analytics firms: Every new coin spawns demand for dashboards, risk scores and on-chain surveillance tools.
• Marketing agencies: KOL campaigns, AMA marathons, conference sponsorships—billboards for the next bull cycle.

Bottom Line
The stablecoin wave is a rising tide that lifts many boats, but the biggest winners change with each stage:

1. Lawyers (today)

2. Web3 infra shops (this quarter)

3. Distribution channels (next year)

4. The single issuer that outruns everyone else (long term)

For the rest of us, it’s a spectator sport with occasional free popcorn—grab it while it’s hot.

1. The License Dash—Lawyers First to the Trough
Compliance is the ticket to play, and right now everyone is queuing in Hong Kong.
The regulator’s checklist is long, dense and shifting—too much for most firms to decode alone.
Enter the law firms. They draft applications, translate rules, lobby behind closed doors and bill by the hour.
Long before a single token is minted, the lawyers have already locked in their win.

2. Building the Stack—Web3 Infrastructure Shops Feast Next
Compliance and tech can run in parallel. Smart issuers start building while their paperwork is still under review; waiting for the green light means missing the window.
A functioning stablecoin needs a small army of services: KYB/KYT, AML screening, treasury management, token-issuance APIs, liquidity venues, on-chain security audits, fiat ramps, address whitelisting, settlement layers—the list is long.
Most TradFi companies have neither the talent nor the tooling, so they outsource to crypto-native dev shops.
Those Web3 service providers are signing multi-year retainers and watching revenue hit the books months before any coins circulate.

3. The Channel Wars—Exchanges, E-Commerce Giants and Trade Houses
License? Check. Tech? Check. Now comes distribution.
We are still early; most firms are stuck in stages one or two, but the first real battle—call it the “Hundred-Coins War”—is already being negotiated in back rooms.
For a stablecoin, liquidity is oxygen. Issuers must anchor their coins in real business flows: remittance corridors, on-ramp/off-ramp pairs, merchant checkouts, OTC desks.
Look at Circle: USDC exploded because Coinbase provided depth of market and brand credibility.
Hong Kong’s contenders will repeat the playbook—ink exclusive deals with exchanges, tie-ups with e-commerce platforms, integrations into cross-border trade networks.
When the fight starts, the tollbooths—exchanges, payment processors, large merchants—collect rent from every issuer desperate for volume.

4. The Last Coin Standing—Issuer Profit Mode
History rhymes: ride-hailing, bike-sharing, food delivery—all began with subsidy wars, then consolidation, then price hikes.
Stablecoins will follow the same arc. One coin—maybe two—will become the de facto HKD or regional CNY proxy. Network effects will snowball; smaller caps will be starved of liquidity and quietly delist.
Once dominance is locked in, the surviving issuer flips from growth-at-all-costs to yield optimization: higher spreads on mint/redeem, float income on reserves, premium API access, B2B SaaS fees.
With billions in backing assets, even a 50-basis-point spread becomes serious money.
And just like Uber or Meituan after the truce, profitability is both sudden and enormous.

Side Hustles Along the Way
• Retail traders: When new issuers pay for liquidity, arbitrage airdrops, zero-fee ramps and deposit-bonus campaigns appear—free money for alert users.
• Data vendors & analytics firms: Every new coin spawns demand for dashboards, risk scores and on-chain surveillance tools.
• Marketing agencies: KOL campaigns, AMA marathons, conference sponsorships—billboards for the next bull cycle.

Bottom Line
The stablecoin wave is a rising tide that lifts many boats, but the biggest winners change with each stage:

1. Lawyers (today)

2. Web3 infra shops (this quarter)

3. Distribution channels (next year)

4. The single issuer that outruns everyone else (long term)

For the rest of us, it’s a spectator sport with occasional free popcorn—grab it while it’s hot.